Cincinnati @ Houston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Matt McLain is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today. In the past 14 days, Matt McLain's 20.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.4%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Matt McLain's true offensive ability to be a .332, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .065 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .267 wOBA.

Brendan Rodgers's BABIP ability is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Extreme groundball batters like Brendan Rodgers tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Martinez. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds. Brendan Rodgers will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Brendan Rodgers has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 14% seasonal rate to 25% in the past week.

Austin Hays is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. Austin Hays pulls many of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the best hitter in baseball when it comes to his BABIP talent. Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Elly De La Cruz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against Hunter Brown in this game. Elly De La Cruz has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.3-mph average to last year's 94-mph average. Placing in the 98th percentile, Elly De La Cruz sports a .352 BABIP since the start of last season.

TJ Friedl is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today. Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, TJ Friedl will have an edge today. TJ Friedl has made notable improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 2.7% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the past week. TJ Friedl has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.4-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 88.1-mph mark. TJ Friedl's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased lately, going from 46.8% on the season to 64.3% over the past 7 days.

Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.2°, Spencer Steer has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 23.7° mark in the last week's worth of games. Spencer Steer has been unlucky this year, notching a .249 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .315 — a .066 discrepancy. In terms of plate discipline, Spencer Steer's ability is quite impressive, sporting a 2.05 K/BB rate since the start of last season while ranking in in the 76th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Yainer Diaz is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today. Extreme groundball bats like Yainer Diaz usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Martinez. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Yainer Diaz will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Jose Altuve is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.7% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds. Jose Altuve will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Santiago Espinal has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.4-mph to 91.5-mph in the past 14 days. Santiago Espinal's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, rising from 40.5% on the season to 51.7% over the past 14 days. When it comes to plate discipline, Santiago Espinal's talent is quite impressive, putting up a 2.02 K/BB rate since the start of last season while ranking in in the 77th percentile.

Jake Fraley will have the handedness advantage against Hunter Brown today.

The shallowest LF fences among all major league parks are found in Minute Maid Park. Based on Statcast metrics, Rece Hinds ranks in the 91st percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .346. Since the start of last season, Rece Hinds's flyball exit velocity (a reliable stat to assess power) ranks in the 95th percentile at 97 mph. Rece Hinds has done a good job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 19.7° mark is among the highest in the league since the start of last season (91st percentile). Rece Hinds is notably fast, ranking in the 93rd percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.19 ft/sec since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zachary Dezenzo in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The shallowest LF fences among all major league parks are found in Minute Maid Park. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds. Zachary Dezenzo will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Zachary Dezenzo has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 15.2% seasonal rate to 42.9% over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Jeremy Pena is penciled in 1st in the lineup today. The shallowest LF fences among all major league parks are found in Minute Maid Park. Extreme flyball batters like Jeremy Pena are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Martinez. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.

Jake Meyers's batting average skill is projected to be in the 75th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds. Jake Meyers will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Jake Meyers has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.2-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 91-mph average. Compared to his seasonal average of 7.7°, Jake Meyers has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 27.7° angle over the last week.

Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds. Mauricio Dubon will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Grading out in the 79th percentile, Mauricio Dubon sports a .267 batting average since the start of last season.

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (45.5% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Isaac Paredes has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 21.2° compared to his seasonal mark of 16.4°.

Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. Christian Walker pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds. Christian Walker will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Christian Walker's launch angle in recent games (27.8° in the last week) is quite a bit higher than his 12° seasonal angle.

Home runs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the shallowest in MLB. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jacob Hurtubise has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .244 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .267.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 87th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. In the last two weeks, Tyler Stephenson's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 18.2% up to 18.2%. Tyler Stephenson has shown some good exit velocity indicators in recent games, averaging 97.5-mph on his flyballs over the last two weeks. In the last 14 days, Tyler Stephenson's swing has been well optimized for home runs, notching a 36.4% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 87th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Gavin Lux is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. Gavin Lux will have the handedness advantage against Hunter Brown today. Compared to last year, Gavin Lux has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 12.7% to 15.7% this season. In notching a .264 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Gavin Lux has performed in the 76th percentile.