Cincinnati @ Houston picks

Nick Martinez has averaged 85 pitches over seven starts and has thrown more than 90 just two times. It’s a road start where THE BAT is projecting 16.56 outs on 87 pitches. He is 4-3 to the Under on this prop this year and has yet to get 18 outs over his three road starts. This is a good Under down to even money. He is a low-K% pitcher who gets the majority of his outs in the air with a 33% groundball rate. That should help him stay out of double plays, which are Under-out killers. The Houston bats are starting to wake up, too.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Matt McLain is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. The #6 venue in MLB for boosting home runs to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. In the past 14 days, Matt McLain's 20.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.4%.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Matt McLain's true offensive ability to be a .332, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .065 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .267 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Jose Altuve is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The #6 venue in MLB for boosting home runs to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.7% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the best hitter in baseball when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Minute Maid Park ranks as the #6 stadium in the majors for lefty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Elly De La Cruz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against Hunter Brown in this game.. Elly De La Cruz has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.3-mph average to last year's 94-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Matt McLain is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. The #6 venue in MLB for boosting home runs to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. In the past 14 days, Matt McLain's 20.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.4%.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Matt McLain's true offensive ability to be a .332, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .065 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .267 wOBA.

The #6 venue in MLB for boosting home runs to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. The shallowest LF fences among all major league parks are found in Minute Maid Park.. Based on Statcast metrics, Rece Hinds ranks in the 91st percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .346.. Utilizing Statcast data, Rece Hinds ranks in the 100th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 37.600.. Since the start of last season, Rece Hinds's flyball exit velocity (a reliable stat to assess power) ranks in the 95th percentile at 97 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Jose Altuve is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The #6 venue in MLB for boosting home runs to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.7% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Yainer Diaz is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.. The #6 venue in MLB for boosting home runs to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Extreme groundball bats like Yainer Diaz usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Martinez.. Among all the teams today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.

The Houston Astros have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future. It is expected that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Dan Iassogna) behind the plate in this game.. The shallowest LF fences among all major league parks are found in Minute Maid Park.. Nick Martinez has a reverse platoon split and is stuck going up against 9 same-handed bats in today's matchup.. Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Nick Martinez (34.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 3 FB hitters in Houston's projected offense.

Minute Maid Park ranks as the #6 stadium in the majors for lefty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Jake Fraley will have the handedness advantage against Hunter Brown today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 87th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. The #6 venue in MLB for boosting home runs to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. In the last two weeks, Tyler Stephenson's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 18.2% up to 18.2%.. Tyler Stephenson has shown some good exit velocity indicators in recent games, averaging 97.5-mph on his flyballs over the last two weeks.. In the last 14 days, Tyler Stephenson's swing has been well optimized for home runs, notching a 36.4% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.