Pittsburgh @ St. Louis Picks & Props

As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-best pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for pitchers. Brendan Donovan has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) but may find it hard to clear the game's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Brendan Donovan has shown some bad exit velocity indicators lately, averaging just 88.6-mph on his flyballs over the past week. Brendan Donovan has been lucky this year, notching a .375 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .337 — a .038 difference.

Extreme groundball hitters like Liover Peguero generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Sonny Gray. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst among every team in action today. Liover Peguero is in the 97th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (57.1% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Willson Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball bats like Willson Contreras tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Mitch Keller. Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Triolo in the 79th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst among every team in action today. Jared Triolo has seen a big increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 91.6-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 88.6-mph mark. Compared to his seasonal average of 18°, Jared Triolo has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 23.2° mark over the past 14 days. Jared Triolo has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .264 figure is considerably lower than his .297 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Nolan Arenado will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. As it relates to plate discipline, Nolan Arenado's ability is quite strong, posting a 1.79 K/BB rate since the start of last season while ranking in in the 84th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game. Oneil Cruz will have the handedness advantage over Sonny Gray in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst among every team in action today. Oneil Cruz has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 15.7% rate last season to 23.1% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will get to bat from his better side against Sonny Gray in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst among every team in action today. In the past 7 days, Bryan Reynolds's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.9% up to 19%.

Jordan Walker's BABIP skill is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Jordan Walker will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Jordan Walker has made notable strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 5.6% seasonal rate to 20% in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 86th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Alec Burleson is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Alec Burleson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game. Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Alec Burleson will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pedro Pages will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke'Bryan Hayes in the 75th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst among every team in action today. Ke'Bryan Hayes has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 90.9-mph average to last season's 88.7-mph EV.

Masyn Winn is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Masyn Winn will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Over the last week, Masyn Winn's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.7% up to 23.1%. Masyn Winn's launch angle in recent games (23.2° in the past two weeks) is quite a bit better than his 17.8° seasonal mark.

Adam Frazier will hold the platoon advantage over Sonny Gray today. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst among every team in action today. Adam Frazier has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85-mph to 87-mph over the past 7 days. Adam Frazier's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls lately (21.2° over the past two weeks) is significantly higher than his 14.3° seasonal figure. Adam Frazier has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .212 mark is considerably lower than his .241 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Enmanuel Valdez is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Enmanuel Valdez will have an advantage today. Enmanuel Valdez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst among every team in action today. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.7°, Enmanuel Valdez has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 21.2° figure over the last 14 days.

Joey Bart is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst among every team in action today. Joey Bart's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 43.1% to 52.5%. Posting a .348 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Joey Bart finds himself in the 88th percentile. Placing in the 90th percentile, Joey Bart sports a .337 BABIP since the start of last season.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Andrew McCutchen hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst among every team in action today. Andrew McCutchen has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.3-mph average to last season's 93-mph mark.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today. Lars Nootbaar will hold the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller today. Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Victor Scott II will hold the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's matchup. Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Victor Scott II will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Victor Scott II has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 6.8% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past week's worth of games. In the last week's worth of games, Victor Scott II's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.5%.

Tommy Pham hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Bats such as Tommy Pham with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Sonny Gray who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst among every team in action today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Tommy Pham's true offensive talent to be a .305, implying that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .088 deviation between that figure and his actual .217 wOBA.

Nolan Gorman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller today. Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates. Nolan Gorman is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#3-worst of the day). Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Nolan Gorman's launch angle this year (24.1°) is considerably higher than his 20.4° angle last year.