Texas @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. Tanner Houck will have the handedness advantage over Wyatt Langford in today's game... and it's an even larger mismatch considering Houck's large platoon split. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 3rd-best out of every team playing today. Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Wyatt Langford today. Wyatt Langford has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 10.8% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last 7 days.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. Jarren Duran's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off in recent games; his 90.9-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 87.7-mph over the last 7 days. Compared to his seasonal figure of 12.9°, Jarren Duran has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (4.7°) in the past two weeks. Jarren Duran's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (3.9°) is considerably worse than his 8.4° angle last year.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. Hitting from the same side that Tyler Mahle throws from, Alex Bregman will be at a disadvantage in today's matchup. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Alex Bregman has had positive variance on his side this year. His .412 figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .334.

Fenway Park ranks as the #4 field in the majors for lefty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Jonah Heim hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Jonah Heim's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 38.4% to 48.3%.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 3rd-best out of every team playing today. Corey Seager will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today. Corey Seager's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased in recent games, decreasing from 19.2% on the season to 0% over the last 7 days. From last season to this one, Corey Seager's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 47.2% to 41.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell as the 8th-best batter in MLB when assessing his BABIP ability. Kristian Campbell is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in the majors for righty batting average. The shallowest left field dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Fenway Park ranks as the #4 field in the majors for lefty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Mahle throws from, Rafael Devers will have an advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joc Pederson in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Joc Pederson is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Fenway Park ranks as the #4 field in the majors for lefty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Because of Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Joc Pederson will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in the majors for righty batting average. The shallowest left field dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Connor Wong will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Ranking in the 91st percentile, Connor Wong has posted a .332 BABIP since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 81st percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in the majors for righty batting average. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Trevor Story hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in the majors for righty batting average. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Ceddanne Rafaela has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage today. Ceddanne Rafaela has made notable gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 7.6% rate last season to 13.1% this year.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Josh Smith ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Josh Smith is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game. Fenway Park ranks as the #4 field in the majors for lefty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's right field fences are the shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Fenway Park ranks as the #4 field in the majors for lefty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage against Tyler Mahle in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 79th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in the majors for righty batting average. The shallowest left field dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. There has been a significant improvement in Adolis Garcia's launch angle from last year's 14.8° to 23.5° this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 96th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in the majors for righty batting average. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Romy Gonzalez has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Romy Gonzalez will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Marcus Semien ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Marcus Semien is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in the majors for righty batting average. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Marcus Semien pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Jung in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in the majors for righty batting average. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. This season, Josh Jung has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 95.4 mph compared to last year's 92.3 mph mark.