Pittsburgh @ St. Louis Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today. Oneil Cruz has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 15.7% rate last year to 24% this season. Oneil Cruz has made substantial gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 24.3% seasonal rate to 32.1% over the past two weeks. Oneil Cruz has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 102.1-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 96.8-mph mark.

Victor Scott II will have the handedness advantage against Paul Skenes in today's game. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team playing today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Victor Scott II will hold that advantage today. Over the last 7 days, Victor Scott II's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.9% up to 14.3%. Victor Scott II's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 20.6% on the season to 28.6% over the past 7 days.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 5th-best for pitching of all games on the slate. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side (0) today against Matthew Liberatore Bryan Reynolds has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Bryan Reynolds will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. There has been a significant decline in Bryan Reynolds's launch angle from last season's 9.1° to 4.7° this season.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team playing today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's game. Nolan Arenado has shown favorable plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 85th percentile with a 1.78 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Paul Skenes throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have an advantage in today's game. Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team playing today.

The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team playing today. Yohel Pozo will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Willson Contreras ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. Willson Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team playing today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage today.

The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team playing today. Pedro Pages will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Jordan Walker's BABIP skill is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team playing today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage in today's game. Jordan Walker has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.1-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 91.2-mph EV.

Masyn Winn is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team playing today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage in today's game. In the last 7 days, Masyn Winn's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.9% up to 21.4%. Masyn Winn's launch angle this year (18°) is significantly better than his 13° figure last season.

Ke'Bryan Hayes is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Ke'Bryan Hayes will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore today. Compared to last season, Ke'Bryan Hayes has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 41.8% to 46.8% this season.

Henry Davis will hold the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore in today's game. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Henry Davis has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .211 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .237.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 86th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Alec Burleson will hold the platoon advantage over Paul Skenes today. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team playing today. Alec Burleson will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Alec Burleson has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 95.3-mph over the last 7 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Andrew McCutchen will have the handedness advantage over Matthew Liberatore in today's game. Andrew McCutchen hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Over the last 14 days, Andrew McCutchen has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 13.3% to 20.6%.

Jared Triolo's BABIP ability is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jared Triolo will hold the platoon advantage over Matthew Liberatore today. Jared Triolo has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 92.2-mph average to last season's 90.1-mph figure. Compared to his seasonal average of 20.1°, Jared Triolo has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 29.4° angle over the last two weeks. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.298) implies that Jared Triolo has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .266 actual wOBA.

Joey Bart is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Joey Bart will have an advantage in today's matchup. Joey Bart's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 43.1% to 52.8%. Sporting a .350 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Joey Bart has performed in the 88th percentile. Joey Bart has recorded a .339 BABIP since the start of last season, placing in the 91st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 97th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Brendan Donovan is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Paul Skenes throws from, Brendan Donovan will have the upper hand in today's matchup. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team playing today. Brendan Donovan will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Liover Peguero will have the handedness advantage over Matthew Liberatore in today's game. Liover Peguero grades out in the 97th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (57.1% rate since the start of last season).

Tommy Pham will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore in today's matchup. Tommy Pham hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Tommy Pham's true offensive ability to be a .305, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .087 difference between that figure and his actual .218 wOBA.

Alexander Canario has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Alexander Canario will have an advantage today. In the past 7 days, Alexander Canario's maximum exit velocity (a good measure of recent form and raw power) has been 110.6-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in MLB.