St. Louis @ Boston props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which often leads to less offense. Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 5th-coldest weather on the slate at 49°. Jarren Duran's quickness has decreased this year. His 29.6 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.6 ft/sec now.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The #8 venue in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge today. Wilyer Abreu pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Extreme groundball hitters like Wilyer Abreu are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Andre Pallante.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Rob Refsnyder will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Rob Refsnyder's maximum exit velocity (an advanced metric to study power) has been 111.5 mph since the start of last season, grading out in the 78th percentile.

The #8 venue in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. In the past 7 days, Victor Scott's swing has been well optimized for home runs, notching a 28.6% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Victor Scott has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .243 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .286.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Triston Casas ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Triston Casas is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. The #8 venue in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Triston Casas will have the upper hand today. Triston Casas hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game. The #8 venue in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Lars Nootbaar has hit one of the hardest balls in the league over the past week — 112.7-mph — which is a good indicator of recent form and raw power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Brendan Donovan is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The #8 venue in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Brendan Donovan has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Brendan Donovan has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .332 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .353.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. The #8 venue in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Rafael Devers will hold the platoon advantage over Andre Pallante today. Rafael Devers has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Alec Burleson is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. The #8 venue in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Alec Burleson has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's shallowest LF fences today. Utilizing Statcast data, Alec Burleson grades out in the 87th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .278.

The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. Connor Wong will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Connor Wong has been lifting the ball well recently, putting up a 38° launch angle in the last week's worth of games. Ranking in the 90th percentile, Connor Wong sports a .331 BABIP since the start of last season.

When it comes to his BABIP talent, Kristian Campbell is projected as the 13th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Kristian Campbell will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the past week, Kristian Campbell has displayed impressive power, recording a a 14.3% Barrel% (an advanced standard to evaluate power).

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Alex Bregman hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Extreme groundball hitters like Alex Bregman tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Andre Pallante.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 75th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Sean Newcomb throws from, Masyn Winn will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Masyn Winn hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Masyn Winn has been hot recently, putting up a 95.2-mph average exit velocity in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 77th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Sean Newcomb throws from, Jordan Walker will have an advantage in today's game. Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Over the past 7 days, Jordan Walker's maximum exit velocity (a favorable proxy for recent form and raw power) has been 115.8-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in baseball.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 77th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Trevor Story is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. Batters such as Trevor Story with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Andre Pallante who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Sean Newcomb throws from, Willson Contreras will have an edge today. Willson Contreras has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Sean Newcomb throws from, Pedro Pages will have an edge in today's matchup. Pedro Pages has been very good at hitting the ball to all fields (a core talent for batting average), ranking in the 97th percentile in THE BAT X's Spray Score since the start of last season.

The #8 venue in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. David Hamilton will hold the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante in today's game. David Hamilton has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. David Hamilton will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. David Hamilton has had some very poor luck with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .298 mark is a fair amount lower than his .314 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Ivan Herrera has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Sean Newcomb throws from, Ivan Herrera will have an advantage in today's matchup.

The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. Ceddanne Rafaela will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Ceddanne Rafaela has done a strong job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-hit balls. His 17.2° mark is among the highest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (90th percentile).

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Nolan Arenado will hold the platoon advantage against Sean Newcomb today. Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.7% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. When it comes to plate discipline, Nolan Arenado's talent is quite strong, putting up a 1.95 K/BB rate since the start of last season while placing in in the 77th percentile.

Luken Baker is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Sean Newcomb throws from, Luken Baker will have an edge today. Extreme flyball hitters like Luken Baker are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Sean Newcomb.