Los Angeles @ Texas Picks & Props

Hitters such as Andrew Velazquez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Max Scherzer who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Compared to last year, Andrew Velazquez has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 14.9% to 20% this season. As it relates to his batting average, Andrew Velazquez has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .199 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .219.

The #3 park in MLB for suppressing base hits to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching. Patrick Sandoval will have the handedness advantage against Corey Seager in today's game... and it's an even larger mismatch considering Sandoval's large platoon split. Today, Corey Seager is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.7% rate (85th percentile). Corey Seager has been lucky this year, compiling a .444 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .391 — a .053 gap.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in MLB. Shohei Ohtani is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. The underlying talent of the Texas Rangers projected batting order today (.333 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably worse than their .348 wOBA this year. The Texas Rangers have been the luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future Shohei Ohtani will have the handedness advantage over Max Scherzer in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Leody Taveras in the 77th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. The switch-hitting Leody Taveras will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Patrick Sandoval... and even better, Sandoval has a large platoon split. Leody Taveras will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Over the last 14 days, Leody Taveras's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.3-mph over the course of the season to 91.6-mph in recent games. Leody Taveras has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .263 mark is a good deal lower than his .295 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

In the last 14 days, Hunter Renfroe has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 17.2° compared to his seasonal mark of 11°.

The switch-hitting Robbie Grossman will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Patrick Sandoval... and even better, Sandoval has a large platoon split. Bats such as Robbie Grossman with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Patrick Sandoval who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Robbie Grossman will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Over the past 14 days, Robbie Grossman's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.2-mph over the course of the season to 97.2-mph recently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Adolis Garcia is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Adolis Garcia will hold the platoon advantage over Patrick Sandoval today... and even better, Sandoval has a large platoon split. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Adolis Garcia will hold that advantage today. Adolis Garcia has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 98.7-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal EV of 96.4-mph.

Luis Rengifo is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Extreme groundball batters like Luis Rengifo usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Scherzer. Last year, Luis Rengifo had an average launch angle of 9.1° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 12.8°. Luis Rengifo has shown good plate discipline this year, checking in at the 77th percentile with a 1.94 K/BB rate.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Marcus Semien ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Marcus Semien is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game. Marcus Semien will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Patrick Sandoval in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Sandoval has a large platoon split. Extreme groundball bats like Marcus Semien tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Patrick Sandoval. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Marcus Semien will hold that advantage today.

Ezequiel Duran's BABIP skill is projected in the 87th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ezequiel Duran will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Patrick Sandoval in today's game... and even better, Sandoval has a large platoon split. Ezequiel Duran will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Ezequiel Duran has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 90.5-mph average to last year's 85.4-mph average. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.3°, Ezequiel Duran has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 30.8° angle over the past 14 days.

Mike Moustakas is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. Mike Moustakas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Max Scherzer today. Over the last week, Mike Moustakas's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.7-mph over the course of the season to 97.4-mph of late.

Matt Thaiss will have the handedness advantage against Max Scherzer today. Over the last 14 days, Matt Thaiss has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 10.5% to 16.7%. Matt Thaiss's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, increasing from 14.8% on the season to 38.9% in the past two weeks. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Matt Thaiss has had some very poor luck this year. His .304 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .332.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Brandon Drury ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Drury is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Brandon Drury has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.2-mph to 94-mph in the last week. By putting up a .284 batting average this year, Brandon Drury is ranked in the 87th percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Mitch Garver ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Mitch Garver is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season. Mitch Garver will have the handedness advantage against Patrick Sandoval in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Sandoval has a large platoon split. Extreme groundball hitters like Mitch Garver generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Patrick Sandoval. Mitch Garver will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The switch-hitting Jonah Heim will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Patrick Sandoval... and even better, Sandoval has a large platoon split. Among every team on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Los Angeles Angels. Jonah Heim will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

C.J. Cron has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Nathaniel Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.