Detroit @ Boston Picks & Props

Jarren Duran has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (71% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. Jarren Duran has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last 7 days. Jarren Duran's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, going from 18.4% to 12.4%. Despite posting a .363 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jarren Duran has been lucky given the .037 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .326.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. Brayan Bello will hold the platoon advantage against Matt Vierling in today's matchup. Matt Vierling will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Matt Vierling's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased in recent games; his 89.4-mph seasonal average has dropped to 84.7-mph in the last 14 days. Matt Vierling's launch angle this season (7.9°) is quite a bit lower than his 12° angle last season.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. Rafael Devers's exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 94.6-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 86.1-mph in the last week. From last season to this one, Rafael Devers's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 42.2% to 36.2%. Rafael Devers's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off recently, decreasing from 36.2% on the season to 28.1% in the past 14 days. Rafael Devers has notched a .268 BABIP this year, placing in the 18th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene as the best batter in the league as it relates to his BABIP talent. Riley Greene is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. The #2 stadium in MLB for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Riley Greene will have the handedness advantage against Brayan Bello in today's game. Riley Greene has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. Masataka Yoshida has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .365 rate is inflated compared to his .330 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Masataka Yoshida ranks in just the 2nd percentile with a 3.5° launch angle, which is one of the most groundball-inducing angles in the majors.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. Kerry Carpenter will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today. Kerry Carpenter's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined recently, falling from 15.6% on the season to 6.5% in the past 14 days. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Kerry Carpenter's true offensive talent to be a .330, suggesting that he has had some very good luck this year given the .021 difference between that figure and his actual .351 wOBA.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. Matt Manning will hold the platoon advantage against Justin Turner in today's game. Justin Turner's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 89.8-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 85.6-mph over the last two weeks. Justin Turner's launch angle this year (15.3°) is a significant dropoff from his 18.6° figure last season. Over the past two weeks, Justin Turner's 4.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 18%.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. Alex Verdugo's average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 88.8-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 82.1-mph over the past 7 days. Compared to his seasonal mark of 7.3°, Alex Verdugo has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (4°) in the past two weeks' worth of games. In the past week, Alex Verdugo has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Javier Baez in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Fenway Park projects as the #2 park in baseball for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. Javier Baez has been unlucky this year, posting a .257 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .305 — a .048 disparity.

Akil Baddoo is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. The #2 stadium in MLB for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Akil Baddoo will have the handedness advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup. Akil Baddoo hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Akil Baddoo has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 111.7-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal EV of 91.9-mph.

Fenway Park projects as the #2 park in baseball for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jake Rogers pulls a lot of his flyballs (32.8% — 75th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball batters like Jake Rogers generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello. Over the last 7 days, Jake Rogers's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.4-mph over the course of the season to 98-mph in recent games. In the last week's worth of games, Jake Rogers's 61.5% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 41.8%.

Triston Casas is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The #2 stadium in MLB for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Triston Casas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matt Manning in today's game. Triston Casas pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.1% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Out of all the teams in action today, the worst infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 76th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Fenway Park projects as the #2 park in baseball for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. Out of all the teams in action today, the worst infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 80th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Spencer Torkelson is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. Fenway Park projects as the #2 park in baseball for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Spencer Torkelson pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball bats like Spencer Torkelson tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

The #2 stadium in MLB for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Zach McKinstry will hold the platoon advantage over Brayan Bello today. Zach McKinstry hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. In the last week's worth of games, Zach McKinstry's 69.2% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48.4%. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Zach McKinstry has experienced some negative variance this year. His .298 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .334.

Fenway Park projects as the #2 park in baseball for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Eric Haase pulls many of his flyballs (35.5% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Eric Haase's true offensive ability to be a .293, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .063 disparity between that mark and his actual .230 wOBA.

The #2 stadium in MLB for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Reese McGuire will have the handedness advantage against Matt Manning in today's matchup. Reese McGuire hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 78th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Out of all the teams in action today, the worst infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers. Reese McGuire will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The #2 stadium in MLB for boosting batting average to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Nick Maton will have the handedness advantage over Brayan Bello in today's game. Extreme flyball batters like Nick Maton tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello. Nick Maton's footspeed has gotten better this season. His 26.62 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 27.19 ft/sec now.

Connor Wong has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Zack Short has gone over 0.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Andy Ibanez has gone over 0.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.