Minnesota @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citizens Bank Park as the 7th-worst park in the game for RHB base hits. Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which often leads to less offense. In the past week's worth of games, Alec Bohm's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal EV of 90.4 mph to 85.7 mph. Alec Bohm's launch angle of late (0.3° in the last two weeks) is significantly worse than his 10° seasonal angle. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.327) may lead us to conclude that Alec Bohm has been very fortunate this year with his .343 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citizens Bank Park as the 7th-worst park in the game for RHB base hits. Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which often leads to less offense. Willi Castro will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Over the last 14 days, Willi Castro's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.3% down to 0%. Willi Castro's exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 89.6-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 80-mph in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citizens Bank Park as the 7th-worst park in the game for RHB base hits. Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which often leads to less offense. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Carlos Correa today. By putting up a .268 BABIP this year, Carlos Correa grades out in the 18th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citizens Bank Park as the 7th-worst park in the game for RHB base hits. Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which often leads to less offense. Trea Turner has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph dropping to 87.1-mph in the past 7 days. Trea Turner has recorded a .298 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 23rd percentile. Posting a 3.59 K/BB rate this year, Trea Turner has shown poor plate discipline, placing in the 22nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Bryson Stott is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Bryson Stott has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Among all the teams playing today, the 7th-worst infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins.

Long-balls are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Bats such as Joey Gallo with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Joey Gallo has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 101-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 93.5-mph EV. Joey Gallo's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (36.5°) is a significant increase over his 32.4° mark last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Polanco in the 86th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Jorge Polanco is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The switch-hitting Jorge Polanco will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Cristopher Sanchez. Jorge Polanco pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.2% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

Ryan Jeffers is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Long-balls are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Ryan Jeffers will hold the platoon advantage over Cristopher Sanchez today. Ryan Jeffers has made significant strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 12% seasonal rate to 35.3% over the past two weeks.

Long-balls are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Max Kepler has made notable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 11.7% seasonal rate to 25% in the past two weeks. Max Kepler has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 98.2-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal average of 93.2-mph. Over the past week, Max Kepler's 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 39%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Schwarber in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today. Long-balls are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among all the teams playing today, the 7th-worst infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins.

Long-balls are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Edmundo Sosa will hold the platoon advantage over Dallas Keuchel today. Among all the teams playing today, the 7th-worst infield defense is that of the the Minnesota Twins. Edmundo Sosa will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Kyle Farmer will have the handedness advantage over Cristopher Sanchez in today's matchup. Kyle Farmer pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.1% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. When it comes to his batting average, Kyle Farmer has experienced some negative variance this year. His .243 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .266.

J.T. Realmuto has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Nick Castellanos has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Michael A. Taylor has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.