Detroit @ Boston Picks & Props

This year, Andy Ibanez has been pinch hit for in 50% of his appearances when starting against southpaw. Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Andy Ibanez in today's game. Andy Ibanez has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 10.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week's worth of games. Andy Ibanez has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.6-mph dropping to 83.8-mph in the last week's worth of games.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Matt Vierling in today's game. Matt Vierling's exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 89.4-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 84.7-mph over the past 14 days. Matt Vierling's launch angle this year (7.9°) is significantly lower than his 12° angle last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. The #2 venue in the league for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for batters. Alex Verdugo hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. The Detroit Tigers infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of every team today.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Tarik Skubal will hold the platoon advantage against Masataka Yoshida in today's matchup. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Masataka Yoshida has experienced some positive variance this year. His .365 figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .330. Masataka Yoshida's 3.5° launch angle (a reliable stat to evaluate a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the lowest in baseball: 2nd percentile.

When estimating his BABIP talent, Riley Greene is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Riley Greene is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. The #2 venue in the league for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for batters. Riley Greene has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Tarik Skubal will have the handedness advantage over Rafael Devers today. In the past week's worth of games, Rafael Devers's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal average of 94.6 mph to 86.1 mph. Rafael Devers's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last year to this one, decreasing from 42.2% to 36.2%. Rafael Devers's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined lately, falling from 36.2% on the season to 28.1% in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 76th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Trevor Story is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in MLB for righty batting average. Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for batters.

Rob Refsnyder's BABIP talent is projected in the 93rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in MLB for righty batting average. Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for batters.

The #2 venue in the league for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for batters. Triston Casas pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.1% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. The Detroit Tigers infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest out of every team today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Triston Casas will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kerry Carpenter in the 80th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. The #2 venue in the league for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's right field fences are the 2nd-shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for batters. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kerry Carpenter can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 78th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in MLB for righty batting average. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for batters. Connor Wong will hold the platoon advantage against Tarik Skubal in today's matchup. Connor Wong pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.2% — 78th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Miguel Cabrera is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in MLB for righty batting average. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for batters. Miguel Cabrera will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Sale in today's game... and the cherry on top, Sale has a huge platoon split. Miguel Cabrera has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Adam Duvall is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in MLB for righty batting average. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for batters. Adam Duvall will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tarik Skubal in today's game. Adam Duvall pulls many of his flyballs (39.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in MLB for righty batting average. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for batters. Eric Haase will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Sale today... and even better, Sale has a huge platoon split. Eric Haase pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.5% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today. Eric Haase has been unlucky this year, putting up a .230 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .293 — a .063 disparity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Javier Baez in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in MLB for righty batting average. Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for batters. Javier Baez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Sale in today's matchup... and even better, Sale has a huge platoon split.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Spencer Torkelson is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in MLB for righty batting average. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for batters. Spencer Torkelson will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Sale in today's game... and moreover, Sale has a huge platoon split.

Jake Rogers is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in MLB for righty batting average. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for batters. Jake Rogers will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Sale today... and even more favorably, Sale has a huge platoon split. Jake Rogers pulls many of his flyballs (32.8% — 75th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in MLB for righty batting average. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for batters. Zack Short will have the handedness advantage against Chris Sale in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Sale has a huge platoon split. Zack Short hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

Reese McGuire has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.