St. Louis @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

The #4 venue in MLB for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest -5° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Miles Mikolas will hold the platoon advantage over Yandy Diaz in today's game. Yandy Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off of late, falling from 41.6% on the season to 28.1% in the past 14 days. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.363) may lead us to conclude that Yandy Diaz has had positive variance on his side this year with his .394 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game. Lars Nootbaar will hold the platoon advantage against Zach Eflin in today's game. Lars Nootbaar has made big gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 9.7% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past 14 days. In the past 14 days, Lars Nootbaar's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.7-mph over the course of the season to 99.5-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the 4th-worst field in the game for LHB batting average. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest -5° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching. The switch-hitting Wander Franco will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side (0) today against Miles Mikolas

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Randy Arozarena is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of every team on the slate today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Randy Arozarena will hold that advantage today. Randy Arozarena has made notable strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 7.9% rate last season to 13.7% this year.

Paul Goldschmidt projects as the 17th-best hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today. Paul Goldschmidt has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Paul Goldschmidt has put up a .368 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 91st percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Paul Goldschmidt ranks in the 81st percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .278.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Dylan Carlson ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The 5th-shallowest RF fences among all major league stadiums are found in Tropicana Field. Dylan Carlson's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls lately (31.8° over the past two weeks) is significantly higher than his 15° seasonal angle. Dylan Carlson's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 40.7% to 46.4%. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Dylan Carlson has had bad variance on his side this year. His .297 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .343.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Willson Contreras is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Willson Contreras has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Willson Contreras has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92-mph to 94.7-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games. Willson Contreras has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .340 mark is quite a bit lower than his .369 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jose Siri's BABIP ability is projected in the 84th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jose Siri pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.4% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of every team on the slate today. Jose Siri will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Jose Siri has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, improving his 6.3% rate last season to 14.2% this year.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Luke Raley ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Luke Raley will hold the platoon advantage against Miles Mikolas in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of every team on the slate today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Luke Raley will hold that advantage in today's game. This year, Luke Raley's 14.7% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 94th percentile among his peers.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Brandon Lowe will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Miles Mikolas in today's game. Brandon Lowe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of every team on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 81st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Nolan Gorman is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Nolan Gorman will have the handedness advantage against Zach Eflin in today's matchup. Nolan Gorman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Nolan Gorman has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 15.8% seasonal rate to 40% in the last week.

Alec Burleson's batting average skill is projected to be in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The 5th-shallowest RF fences among all major league stadiums are found in Tropicana Field. Alec Burleson will hold the platoon advantage over Zach Eflin in today's matchup. In the last week, Alec Burleson's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.6% up to 27.3%. Alec Burleson has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 96.2-mph in the last two weeks.

Isaac Paredes is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of every team on the slate today. Isaac Paredes will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Isaac Paredes's launch angle this season (21.5°) is quite a bit higher than his 15.5° mark last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Edman in the 87th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. The 5th-shallowest RF fences among all major league stadiums are found in Tropicana Field. In terms of his batting average, Tommy Edman this year. His .239 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .263.

Jordan Walker's BABIP talent is projected in the 90th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Among all major league stadiums, Tropicana Field's left field fences are the 6th-shallowest. With a .267 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Jordan Walker grades out in the 75th percentile.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. In the past week, Nolan Arenado's 64.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.4%. Ranking in the 83rd percentile, Nolan Arenado has notched a .358 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year. Nolan Arenado has recorded a .281 batting average this year, grading out in the 87th percentile.

Tyler O'Neill has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Christian Bethancourt has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.