Michael Carrick takes the reins of Manchester United as they welcome Manchester City to Old Trafford on Saturday.
The 198th Manchester Derby finds Manchester City entering the weekend six points adrift of Arsenal atop the Premier League, and Pep Guardiola’s side knows a win here is crucial.
Can Manchester United end a four-match unbeaten run and deal a major blow to their noisy neighbors at the Theatre of Dreams?
Here are my Manchester United vs. Manchester City predictions and free betting picks for Saturday, January 17.
Premier League predictions for Man United vs Man City
My Man United vs Man City best bet: Manchester City moneyline (-105 at Sports Interaction)
I understand why Manchester City isn’t priced as a larger favorite. The Citizens' defensive injury list is extensive, with Josko Gvardiol, John Stones, and Ruben Dias all set to miss the derby.
But Manchester United has underperformed all season in front of goal. The Red Devils have the third-worst goals below the expected mark in the Premier League, having underperformed their xG by four goals.
Only Wolves and Crystal Palace have performed worse.
On the flip side, Manchester City have scored two more than their 39.6 xG on the season. That’s very problematic for a Manchester United defense that has allowed opponents to best their xG by 4.5 goals.
Looking beyond the metrics, the matchup is a bad one for the Red Devils. Erling Haaland hasn’t scored a non-penalty goal in six matches, as fatigue has become an issue, according to Guardiola.
But he’s scored eight goals and assisted three more in Manchester Derbies, including two goals in the reverse fixture. And he’s supported in attack by the red-hot Rayan Cherki and the newly-signed Antonie Semenyo.
Manchester United will have reinforcements with Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo returning from AFCON, but it won’t be enough.
Manuel Ugarte is a serious weakness in the midfield, and Diogo Dalot will struggle against Semenyo, as he did when he faced him in a 4-4 tilt with Bournemouth last month.
Manchester City has the more consistent attack, while Man United continues to struggle with both finishing and defending. And while this fixture has produced some surprising results the past few seasons, I simply don’t see Man City dropping points.
With only one win in their last seven and a new caretaker manager, Manchester United are simply not in a good spot.
Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 13 matches and will pick up their 11th win in 14 matches on Saturday.
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Man United vs Man City same-game parlay (SGP)
Manchester City moneyline
Manchester City Over 5.5 corners
Erling Haaland anytime goalscorer
With Carrick likely starting Casemiro and Manuel Ugarte in a double pivot, Manchester United are likely to absorb pressure in an attempt to hit Man City on the break. This means the Citizens are likely to get a decent number of corners.
They’ve notched at least six corners in four straight matches, and have averaged six per match in their last six outings against Premier League foes.
Erling Haaland tends to show up against the Red Devils — probably because of the rivalry, but also because they were the club that derailed his father’s career with a gruesome injury. That’s why I’m backing him to score.
He will have a sizeable height and strength advantage over Lisandro Martinez. Add in Ugarte’s tendency to lose track of players in the box, and he should get a few high-quality scoring opportunities.
Man United vs Man City odds
Man United vs Man City live odds
Man United vs Man City opening odds
- Moneyline: Man United +283 | Man City -120
- Draw: +310
- Over/Under: Over 3 1/4 (+100) | Under 3 1/4 (-120)
How to watch Man United vs Man City
| Location | Old Trafford, Manchester, England |
| Date | Saturday, January 17, 2026 |
| Time | 7:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | USA Network |
| Weather | Rain |
 Recent EPL form |
D-D-D-W-L |
 Recent EPL form |
D-D-D-W-W |
Man United vs Man City key injuries
Man United: Noussair Mazraoui D (Out), Matthijs de Ligt D (Out), Shea Lacey F (Out).
Man City: John Stones D (Out), Josko Gvardiol D (Out), Omar Marmoush F (Out), Savinho F (Out), Ruben Dias D (Out), Oscar Bobb M (Out), Mateo Kovacic M (Out).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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