Luton vs Aston Villa Predictions and Picks: A Renewed Defensive Focus

If form was the only thing that mattered, Aston Villa would run away with this game. However, it's not which means our soccer betting picks must pivot to the total. Will both teams continue to score at will? Or is the total a tad too high for this Saturday showdown?

Feb 29, 2024 • 14:18 ET • 4 min read
Emiliano Martinez Aston Villa EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

To say things have not gone according to plan this season for Luton would be an understatement. After securing promotion via penalty kicks last May, Luton has managed just five EPL wins on the year and currently sit in the relegation zone, four points back of Nottingham Forest. 

A run of three straight defeats will do nothing to boost confidence ahead of Saturday's fixture vs. a high-flying Aston Villa side who have lost just once away from home over their last 10 fixtures in all competitions. 

The EPL odds favor Aston Villa to emerge victorious but my free soccer picks for Luton vs. Aston Villa on Saturday, March 2 will focus on the total. 

Luton vs Aston Villa best odds

EPL predictions for Luton vs Aston Villa

Hands up if you had Aston Villa occupying a Top-4 spot as the calendar flips to March? Put your hands down, you liar! 

Aston Villa has been one of the best storylines this year as they breathe some much-needed fresh air into the typically predictable order of finish. While there's still plenty of work to be done for Villa to secure a Champions League spot, they are on the right track and I believe they'll continue forward with a solid defensive performance vs. Luton

If we look at Villa's last seven league away fixtures, they've lost just once, but more impressively, they've conceded just one goal in the last three. 

Now they get to face a Luton side who should be more concerned about fixing their leaky defense than pushing forward in search of goals. While they've scored at least one in nine straight matches, they've managed to keep just one clean sheet in that time frame.

Leaking goals is a sure-fire way to get relegated and if something doesn't change soon, that's exactly what's going to happen. 

If we look at this game from another angle, a case could also be made that Villa will be looking ahead to a more important clash midweek as they travel to Amsterdam for the first leg of their Conference League tie vs. Ajax. 

My best bet: Under 3.5 goals (-136 at TonyBet)

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Luton vs Aston Villa same-game parlay

Under 4 goals

Emiliano Martinez Over 2.5 saves

Both teams to receive 1+ card

Aston Villa has given up the fifth-fewest goals through 26 games this season and a large part of that is because Martinez has been steady between the pipes. Luton will have chances — being the home team and all — but Martinez will be right there to turn them away. 

Additionally, both teams to receive a card is worth an add as the ref is Michael Oliver and he's given out an average of four cards per game through 17 games this season. I'd be flabbergasted if the average is reached by just one side. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Luton vs Aston Villa side and Over/Under analysis

Aston Villa opened at -125 favorites and has been bet up slightly to between -130 to -150 depending on the book you're looking at. The draw has seen an uptick in odds to +330 while Luton are hovering around the +330 range as well. 

Given both teams' form entering this contest, you'd be hard-pressed to make a case for Luton at this low +330 line considering they've lost four on the trot (winless in five) and have been breached defensively for 19 goals over their last five games. Villa seems to be the likely winner and -130 is a price I could live with. 

As for the total, we're able to bet into a 3.5-goal line and it's due to recent form. As I mentioned above, if Luton want to have a real chance of survival, they'll need to figure it out defensively and Saturday presents the perfect opportunity at home. 

Not intended for use in MA.
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Luton vs Aston Villa game info

Location: Kenilworth Road, Luton, England
Date: Saturday, March 2, 2024
Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
TV: Peacock Premium, fubo TV, Sling Blue, Hulu + Live TV
Weather: Chilly with no chance of rain. 

Luton vs Aston Villa key injuries

Luton: Amari'i Bell (Doubtful), Dan Potts (Doubtful), Albert-Mboyo Sambi Lokonga (Out), Elijah Adebayo (Out), Jacob Brown (Out), Mads Andersen (Out), Marvelous Nakamba (Out), Tom Lockyer (Out)
Aston Villa: Ezri Konsa (Doubtful) and Pau Torres (Doubtful), Boubacar Kamara (Out), Diego Carlos (Out), Emi Buendia (Out), Jhon Duran (Out), Tyrone Mings (Out).

Luton vs Aston Villa recent league form

Teams Recent Premier League Form
Luton Luton L-L-L-D-W
Aston Villa Aston Villa W-W-L-W-L

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