Arsenal vs Newcastle Picks and Predictions: Both Offenses Find Success

When the season schedule was released, few circled the early January matchup between Arsenal and Newcastle as one of the important fixtures of the campaign. But that’s exactly what Tuesday’s match is going to be when the Magpies travel down to London, as a defeat could end their hopes of competing for the Premier League title.

Arsenal come into the match in a phenomenal run of form, having dropped just five points from their 16 matches in the league thus far. They’ve opened up a seven-point lead over Manchester City and have played one fewer match than third-place Newcastle. 

As for the visitors, a scoreless draw with Leeds over the weekend ended a run of eight victories in all competitions, and now puts them in almost a must-win situation. They’ve taken results already at Tottenham and Manchester United, and will hope to win their fifth Premier League match in six away from home.

Can Newcastle keep alive their surprise title challenge, or will Arsenal continue to fly high atop the table? Find out in our Arsenal vs. Newcastle United picks and predictions for Tuesday, January 3. 

Arsenal vs Newcastle best odds

Arsenal vs Newcastle picks and predictions

The Gunners lead the Premier League and have a real shot to win their first title in 20 years, and their home form has been a big reason. They’ve won all seven matches there, outscoring their opponents 22-8 at the Emirates.

The loss of Gabriel Jesus at the World Cup was cause for concern, but they’ve scored seven goals without him against West Ham and Brighton over the past week. Edward Nketiah has filled in nicely at striker — scoring in both outings — while Martin Odegaard has pulled the strings in midfield having been involved in two goals in both matches.

After being purchased by the Saudis, many expected Newcastle to splash tons of cash and buy up big names. However, Eddie Howe’s side have been constructed with smart, cohesive signings that have turned into a strong side with plenty of chemistry. Bruno Guimaraes has been phenomenal in the midfield, with Kieran Trippier has provided an outstanding weapon on set pieces.

Miguel Almiron has picked up the slack with striker Alexander Isak being out injured, with a goal in seven of Newcastle’s last 10 outings in the league.

However, not even he was able to break down the Leeds’ defense on Saturday, as the Magpies were held 0-0 thanks to keeper Illan Meslier pulling off save after save. Their 16 shots on goal led to an xG of better than two, but they came away utterly frustrated as their four-match home winning streak came to an end.

While Newcastle have defended well this season, they’ve only kept three clean sheets away from home in eight matches. Two of those matches — against Brighton and Manchester United — were scoreless draws. The Gunners have kept just one clean sheet at home, a 5-0 trouncing of Nottingham Forest in October, through their seven fixtures at the Emirates. 

Both of these teams like to attack and have weapons with pace that can cause issues on the counterattack. Newcastle’s 3-3 draw with Manchester City early in the season is the matchup most similar to this one, and it’s the blueprint for what I believe Tuesday’s encounter will be. 

Newcastle have no choice but to try to go for a win here. While it’s still January, falling 12 points adrift with one more match played than Arsenal would all but end their title hopes. As such, I expect this to be a very entertaining match with plenty of chances. While both keepers are doing well, I find it hard to believe there won’t be goals for both sides.

My best bet: Both teams to score - Yes (-128 at FanDuel)

Arsenal vs Newcastle side analysis

Through seven home matches in the Premier League, Arsenal have yet to drop a point. They’ve taken wins over both Tottenham and Liverpool, and have lost just once in all competitions — a 3-1 defeat to Brighton in the Carabao Cup in November — through 11 fixtures. They will continue to be without the services of Jesus and likely will not have midfielder Emile Smith Rowe. 

The visitors have gone unbeaten in 12 games in the Premier League since a last-gasp defeat at Anfield in August, where Liverpool defeated them 2-1. That loss is the only blemish on their away record this year, with four wins and three draws in their other seven on the road.

However, Howe revealed after the Leeds match that Matt Targett is now out. He joins fellow defenders Emil Krafth and Paul Dummett on the sidelines. 

That said, Arsenal have dominated the Magpies when they’ve traveled down to the capital. Not only have the Gunners won seven consecutive matches at home against Newcastle, but they’ve also not even allowed a single goal in that timeframe. Arsenal have won each of the last five by at least two goals as well, and have won all but one of the last 11 home matchups between the two sides. 

Arsenal vs Newcastle Over/Under analysis

Neither of these teams have it in their DNA to sit back and park the bus. While they’ll defend in numbers at times, both have terrific quality in the midfield and in the front line with pace to burn. 

Arsenal have been involved in some low-scoring affairs this season, but against teams similar to Newcastle — squads like Manchester United, Tottenham, and Liverpool — they’ve seen goals upon goals. Each of their matches against those three squads saw at least four tallies scored, and Arsenal’s two matches since the World Cup break have seen a total of 10 goals scored.

In Newcastle’s eight matches away from home this season, at least three goals have been scored five times. Newcastle themselves have scored multiple times in four of those outings. Against teams similar to Arsenal — Liverpool, Fulham, and Tottenham — who like to attack with pace, they’ve seen at least three goals scored in each. 

Arsenal vs Newcastle game info

Arsenal vs Newcastle key injuries

Arsenal: Gabriel Jesus F (Out), Emile Smith Rowe M (Doubtful), Reiss Nelson F (Doubtful).
Newcastle: Alexander Isak F (Out), Jonjo Shelvey M (Out), Matt Targett D (Out). 

Arsenal vs Newcastle recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Arsenal	W-W-W-W-W
Newcastle	W-W-W-W-D

Arsenal vs Newcastle weather

It’s going to be a wet and breezy day in London on Tuesday. Temperatures will be in the upper 40s at kickoff, with wind gusts topping out over 20 mph. 

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