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***KENTUCKY DERBY THOUGHTS & PLAYS***

Forum: Horse Racing Page 8 of 11 «  6 7 8 9 10   »
Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: ***KENTUCKY DERBY THOUGHTS & PLAYS***
fatroll07 PM fatroll07
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quote#176
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:15:07 AM
When I bet I have no problem picking a horse to win at 5-1 which leaves me with the entire field. I like to find one horse in my exotics to key across the board. That would be union. In my exotics I will use price horses like El Padrino, daddy knows, and possibly sabercat. This derby reminds me of the year we had a pretty chalky tri with silver charm but It still paid decent. I don't think we will have bombers coming in and I wouldnt be surprised if we see a trifecta including bode, union, creative cause
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quote#177
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:17:54 AM
PrimeTime- Rousing really improved during his 2 year old campaign. If I would have seen any improvement as a 3 year old I would agree. He didnt have a chance with the slow pace @ FG and that track has been speed favoring. If he improves he could definitely be in the money.
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quote#178
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:18:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fatroll07:

Primetimeboys- As of now I see the winner coming from the following group
bodemeister, alpha, union rags, dullahan, Hansen, creative cause
Now I don't think Dullahan will run as well on dirt so I would lean to downgrade him off the top line. Alpha is a tough call because he is a small horse. He has had his training regimen interrupted and now he draws post 11. The horse has had some serious gate issues in the past and he will be the 1st to load on derby day with 150000 strong. Hansen I am getting rid of because I don't think he can control his speed going mile and a quarter. Creative cause is just a tough read with all the equipment changes and big bounce in his last. The horse has huge upside and if he runs back to his best he can win this thing but horses who run a new top and bounce to not fair well in the derby

This would knock my most likely winner down to union and bode

Now what I like about union is his thorograph form. He paired up his top from last year already twice so far this year. I know this horse has more in his tank and unlike pletcher/gemologist i see him running his top number in the derby. It just comes down to his trip.

Bode is obviously the fastest horse. I think he will rate but how far off I am not sure. I am also not sure he is nearly as good rating.

El Padrino and Gemologist are both going to run solid races. I do not think either is fast enough to win and most likely not fast enough to get second either but possible with the right trip. I think Gem will take a lot of money.

I like Daddy knows best as a possible winner but he looks like such a plodder. He wasn't very fast a two year old but he has steady improvement in his career. If he is still improving he could win.

So bottomline if I had to pick a winner today at 5-1 or 6-1 I would take union rags. I think he will run a new top in the derby but I just question his trip. If he gets the right trip and the pace is decent(which is what everyone believes it will be) Union will be the winner. I think Bode is the only horse that can beat him but he has so much going against him



My cousin loves UR as well..........Bode does have a lot going against him in this race. I know Gem is no Big Brown or Smarty Jones but if he can get the trip, it will be interesting. One thing I hate about UR is the jockey, Leparoux rode UR really bad in the previous race & unless he did it intentionally & tricked us, we should see a better ride.
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quote#179
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:25:22 AM
Primetime Gem is a very nice horse. I really just do not believe Pletcher is capable of getting this horse to improve. Without even looking at thorograph I said I guarantee this horse paired off his first race off the layoff. Usually a horse will at least improve but not Pletchers horses. Yeah Union didn't improve either but he was against a speed bias and a tougher field. Plus he never got free to run. I think Gem will get a nice trip, I think he will run his race, I just don't think no matter what he does he will be fast enough to win.
fatroll07 PM fatroll07
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quote#180
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:27:03 AM
We can argue that Lep is not the right jock for the job and you could be right but the man is on fire. He is winning everything. He took a lot of blame for the ride in Florida and he will be out to prove all the naysayers wrong. He can win
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quote#181
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:34:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fatroll07:

We can argue that Lep is not the right jock for the job and you could be right but the man is on fire. He is winning everything. He took a lot of blame for the ride in Florida and he will be out to prove all the naysayers wrong. He can win


How many times have you seen a hot jockey go into the derby & not win? It happens every year.........I dont follow this pattern a lot but from what I can remember, the hot jockey isnt that great a play in the derby, correct me if im wrong...............
CleeK111 PM CleeK111
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quote#182
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:19:16 AM
There are several hot jockeys riding in the derby...usually they are too thats why they are on the horses. I have been looking over which jockeys are doing good and at what post positions so far at the downs. I think it may be a good sign to read how certain closers or fast horses run and with what jockey.

One of the biggest factors I will be looking at the next couple days is how these horses have run in warm weather. Note it will be 90 degrees in very humid weather on Saturday. It hasnt rained for days and it will be very hot. Weather says chance of rain...10-20% for Fri and Sat but it will be brief if any at all. (im from louisville)

Listened to an interview given by Toby Turrell a clocker for tvg and other horse sites. He said he noticed Union Rags sweating profusely in the morning workouts...morning workouts with weather in the high 70s low 80s this week. A few trainers confirmed that is how UR is and thats what he does as a horse, but it hasnt been as hot as it will be this weekend. How much does this factor in not addition to UR but a couple of the others? Remember that it has been cool in California when some of these horses last raced and this is will be a climate jump. Will this factor or affect any running?

Im trying to bring up a few things to look at and hope some of you reading can provide some feedback.  Im fairly new to handicapping this being my first year doing majority of my own research, but have been following for several years.
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quote#183
Posted: 5/3/2012 8:49:41 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CleeK111:

There are several hot jockeys riding in the derby...usually they are too thats why they are on the horses. I have been looking over which jockeys are doing good and at what post positions so far at the downs. I think it may be a good sign to read how certain closers or fast horses run and with what jockey.

One of the biggest factors I will be looking at the next couple days is how these horses have run in warm weather. Note it will be 90 degrees in very humid weather on Saturday. It hasnt rained for days and it will be very hot. Weather says chance of rain...10-20% for Fri and Sat but it will be brief if any at all. (im from louisville)

Listened to an interview given by Toby Turrell a clocker for tvg and other horse sites. He said he noticed Union Rags sweating profusely in the morning workouts...morning workouts with weather in the high 70s low 80s this week. A few trainers confirmed that is how UR is and thats what he does as a horse, but it hasnt been as hot as it will be this weekend. How much does this factor in not addition to UR but a couple of the others? Remember that it has been cool in California when some of these horses last raced and this is will be a climate jump. Will this factor or affect any running?

Im trying to bring up a few things to look at and hope some of you reading can provide some feedback.  Im fairly new to handicapping this being my first year doing majority of my own research, but have been following for several years.


Good points............only thing I ever looked at as far as weather went was the rain & if the track was sloppy. 
fatroll07 PM fatroll07
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quote#184
Posted: 5/3/2012 10:00:23 AM
I don't think a jockey will make or break the race. I think post position and a horses cruising speed will determine the trip. I am just saying I dont think Leparoux is a bad thing for Union Rags and I am happy they ran into trouble in last because if not he would be 5-2 in the derby.
I should mention that although I don't like Gemologist to win the derby I can definitely see him in the money. He has a 98 beyer in last and two straight 2's on the thorograph form. I failed to mention that he is 2-2 at churchill downs which is huge. He will be in my exotics but not on my win ticket. He is just not fast enough but trip and fondness for track should put him in the top 5
HolyBull PM HolyBull
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quote#185
Posted: 5/3/2012 10:23:37 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by fatroll07:

I don't think a jockey will make or break the race. I think post position and a horses cruising speed will determine the trip. I am just saying I dont think Leparoux is a bad thing for Union Rags and I am happy they ran into trouble in last because if not he would be 5-2 in the derby.
I should mention that although I don't like Gemologist to win the derby I can definitely see him in the money. He has a 98 beyer in last and two straight 2's on the thorograph form. I failed to mention that he is 2-2 at churchill downs which is huge. He will be in my exotics but not on my win ticket. He is just not fast enough but trip and fondness for track should put him in the top 5

Fat, do you have the Sheets or Rags?

HB

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quote#186
Posted: 5/3/2012 10:25:17 AM
Since we have an evenly field this year, I will probably put UR, Bode, Gem & Dullahan keyed on top of every triple & super.........I really believe the winner will be one of these 4 horses & I dont want to miss out if Bode or UR rolls in............
fatroll07 PM fatroll07
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quote#187
Posted: 5/3/2012 10:40:44 AM
HB I have the thorograph sheets.
fatroll07 PM fatroll07
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quote#188
Posted: 5/3/2012 10:45:14 AM
Primetime I think those are probably the right horses to use on top. I am not positive what I am going to do with the west coast horses as I thought the West coast produced some very good horses this year. Ill have another looks like a beautiful animal although a little on the small side. I can't imagine he is good enough to win from post 19.

HB when you get a moment confirm my friend request.
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quote#189
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:26:48 PM
Looks like I will play .50 cent triples this way tomorrow:


.50 cent 7 horse trifecta box 4,5,6,7,8,14,15.............will cost $105

May play several more of these, I will post tomorrow night if I play others.

I will play Gemologist & Dullahan across the board............

$50w $50pl $100show


I will invest $1,000 in this derby so I will have some superfectas as well..................

My brother is going to the poconos this weekend so I asked him what he likes, he said #9 w/o looking at the horses..........I will put $5 to win & place on longshot Trinni for him............ horse doesnt have a shot imo so dont follow the play.............
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quote#190
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:27:05 PM
well here we r days away from d BIG one...a bunch of thoughts and angles being thrown around...looking forward to your final wagers pTB...as always best of luck to u and everyone else
LosEsco25 PM LosEsco25
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quote#191
Posted: 5/3/2012 4:20:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Looks like I will play .50 cent triples this way tomorrow:


.50 cent 7 horse trifecta box 4,5,6,7,8,14,15.............will cost $105

May play several more of these, I will post tomorrow night if I play others.

I will play Gemologist & Dullahan across the board............

$50w $50pl $100show


I will invest $1,000 in this derby so I will have some superfectas as well..................

My brother is going to the poconos this weekend so I asked him what he likes, he said #9 w/o looking at the horses..........I will put $5 to win & place on longshot Trinni for him............ horse doesnt have a shot imo so dont follow the play.............

Im from near the poconos... 

PTB are those you official plays, or are they still to com friday night?
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quote#192
Posted: 5/3/2012 4:23:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LosEsco25:


Im from near the poconos... 

PTB are those you official plays, or are they still to com friday night?


What you see above are official plays, they wont change but I will add more triples & some superfectas.........I may add a few exactas.
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quote#193
Posted: 5/3/2012 4:35:04 PM
LosEsco25 PM LosEsco25
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quote#194
Posted: 5/3/2012 4:35:16 PM
Good Looking forward to your exact plays
HolyBull PM HolyBull
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quote#195
Posted: 5/3/2012 4:45:12 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by fatroll07:

Primetime I think those are probably the right horses to use on top. I am not positive what I am going to do with the west coast horses as I thought the West coast produced some very good horses this year. Ill have another looks like a beautiful animal although a little on the small side. I can't imagine he is good enough to win from post 19.

HB when you get a moment confirm my friend request.

Done.

And regarding a previous post of yours where you say the exotics will be similar to Silver Charms year.  I completely and totally agree.  Had the exact same thought the other day, as I see several horses with a minimal chance of cracking the top three /four.

HB

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quote#196
Posted: 5/3/2012 6:19:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Looks like I will play .50 cent triples this way tomorrow:


.50 cent 7 horse trifecta box 4,5,6,7,8,14,15.............will cost $105

May play several more of these, I will post tomorrow night if I play others.

I will play Gemologist & Dullahan across the board............

$50w $50pl $100show

Alright, help me out here so I'm not standing at the window with a stack of cash in my hand, not knowing what the hell I'm doing...which ironically is exactly what I'll be doing...

Just how in the hell do I place these bets?!  That many trifectas... 

Thanks Man!

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quote#197
Posted: 5/3/2012 7:02:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by STLCard:


Alright, help me out here so I'm not standing at the window with a stack of cash in my hand, not knowing what the hell I'm doing...which ironically is exactly what I'll be doing...

Just how in the hell do I place these bets?!  That many trifectas... 

Thanks Man!



Thats only 1 trifecta box above.........I am thinking like Holy Bull above & Roll, I dont think the payouts will be big this year. I will also play some exactas & these will be official plays:


$10 exactas: 5,15 with 4,7,8,14.......total bets of $80


So far I will invest $585 with $415 remaining to be bet. I may just bet it all to show........... the derby is a sure way of doubling your money on a show bet (if you can pick the horse to come in the top 3)


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quote#198
Posted: 5/3/2012 7:20:41 PM
ok, i see what your saying...

i thought of it as 210 different combinations, instead of 1 trifecta box

thanks for all the help!!
Zephyr_10 PM Zephyr_10
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quote#199
Posted: 5/3/2012 8:30:34 PM
Prime...
I haven't heard you talk about Rousing Sermon once, and in your last few bets posted for trifectas, exactas, you've got #7 horse in there. Did I miss something? And Rousing Sermon 50-1!?!
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quote#200
Posted: 5/3/2012 8:36:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Zephyr_10:

Prime...
I haven't heard you talk about Rousing Sermon once, and in your last few bets posted for trifectas, exactas, you've got #7 horse in there. Did I miss something? And Rousing Sermon 50-1!?!


Just like him on the back end of an exacta & triple.........I dont thing he can win the derby, in fact, I think the winner will be 10-1 or less this year. 
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