The BIG ONE. Game 7 - Spurs at Clippers...Mammoth Playoff Style WRITE-UP capped right here!!!

There is a scene at the end of Die Hard where Hans Gruber (played by Alan Rickman)  is clinging for dear life at the top of Nakatomi Plaza, clutching the hand of Lucy McClane (played by Mary Winstead) with all his bodyweight. He knows he will eventually fall (or take Lucy with him at least). But instead of hoisting himself up, or using his other hand to grab a grip of the ledge, he pulls his gun and aims it squarely at the John McClane's forehead (played by Bruce Willis).

John deftly undoes Lucy's watch and in slow motion, Hans realizes he is finished and can only look at them in utter horror as he knows his fate is sealed. He never got that final shot off and because he didn't use his other hand to save himself, and instead attempted to kill John, he falls to his death.

I'm here to tell you the Clippers play the role of Hans and the Spurs? Well they are Mr. McClane of course.

It's Game 7 and it will be close, but in the end the Clippers will fall.

Reasons why the Spurs are going to win this game

#1 The Clippers Bench

We all know the Clippers bench is atrocious. But it particularly bad this postseason.

All season, they never shored it up, never added crucial pieces and for that they would pay great dividends in Game 7.

There is far too much being put on the starters in this series. "Well Scal" you say, "the Clips have played this way the entire season leaning heavily on theirs stars!"

That's correct. And now they aren't fu**ing around against the Nuggets or Lakers or Wolves or Suns where they could get away with what is arguably the worst bench in the league outside of a few bottom feeders like the Knicks and Sixers.

The starters are being pushed to the limit. And now Glen Davis possibly being out (and he's terrible in his own right), they are stretched even thinner. It is all too much...

Per Kevin Ding of Bleacher report:

Blake could be seen stooped over at the waist, hands on his knees, at every break in the action in the final minutes. His fatigue contributed to mistakes including a Duncan steal and a missed rebound. Griffin (was so winded) he didn't even move to challenge a crucial Diaw three pointer late in the game (with Duncan even sprinting past him to get the rebound if it missed).

I saw Blake with my own eyes, bent over and nearly dry heaving. He looked like he just ate a rancid Poo-Poo platter order from a corner Chinese food joint outside Staples.  

Am I capping the game because I think Blake is tired? No. I'm saying the Clips, who I liked in Game 6, are hanging onto this series for dear life and their lack of bench, and the rest that could be provided to the starters will finally catch up to them in the longest of all series...7 full games with travel.

And remember this is all against the deepest team in the league by far. A team that can wear you down. If it's not Duncan playing like he's 25, it's Parker. If Parker fails, it's Patty.  If Patty's cold it's Diaw. No Diaw? No problem, Belinelli will nail seven three's on you. No Marco? Danny Green will get hot. And on and on and on.

This team is perfectly groomed for a long series and a coach who is the best of the best in making substitutions when necessary.

What do the Clips have on their bench?

Hedo Turkoglu, who, when he retires soon, will find new employment by being a body double for Gandalf in Lord of the Rings.

Glen Davis - A hot mess. Falling all over the place like he's playing a game of Twister. I can't tell whether he's grabbing a rebound or doing the Electric Slide at times. Yes, he guards Timmy fairly well...and that's it. Game 6's line? 2 pts 5 fouls 3 turnovers. Doc couldn't wait to this guy off the floor early in the 4th, even when Blake was dripping with perspiration like he just stepped out of the shower.

Spencer Hawes and Dhantay Jones - Doc loves them so much they played a COMBINED 50 seconds last night. Totally inept and can't be trusted.

Austin Rivers - A child of nepotism. You got your miracle game out of him already folks. The next time that happens Halley's Comet will fly past your living room window.

Crawford - Good? Not so much after the injury. After he went down in early March he was averaging 20 points the month before, crucial production from the only guy on the bench you can trust.

In this series? 11 pts on 36% shooting. I don't know what is wrong with him, but when you see him play, he's clearly not the same player, much like Kyle Lowery was vs. the Wizards. Not the same...and that hurts from your best bench player.

So I wrote all this to dis the Clips bench? Yes and no. The point is, from a macro-perspective, the Spurs will wear you down, Pop will make adjustments, the laboring stars will continue to labor, especially Blake who could barely breath through a post-game press conference, and that will be one of the flaws the Spurs will attack to put them over the hump in Game 7.

Davis is questionable right now and that matters. The way he looked Game 6? Like a man in a wheelchair heading to the cafeteria for creamed corn and jello....in a nursing home.

A man that big and out of shape not being able to put weight on that foot? It may be just another missing piece that the Clips desperately need to give their powerhouse front line much needed rest. And even if hampered, it makes a short bench even shorter.

Oh and the respective bench scoring for the series if you'd like to know:

Spurs 308

Clips 168 (with a mere 32 total coming in games 5 and 6 as the bench production continues to decline and the starters get leaned on more and more. This is what Doc is famous for.)

That is nearly unfathomable in terms of production.

Reason #2 - Historic performances

This series has been nip and tuck the entire way. It could have been 3-2 Clips and the Spurs could be the ones fighting back to win 2 in a row. Instead its the reverse. None of that matters now that game 7 here.

But posters get the misconception that Paul and Blake played poorly last night. They did...in the first half (3/15 combined).

But let's remember something. Parker and Duncan had a combined 6 fouls as well and were taken out of the game in the second quarter.

Also, with the Spurs up 10, Pop inexplicably went to hack-a-Jordan: See post #77 here as it's detailed in full by BB and how this was the Spurs undoing in part.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=102113540&page=4

So while two starters played very poorly, whistles (in part to HackAJordan) and Pop's strategy backfired badly to result in a tie at the half.

Now for the second half. What were the final stat lines for Paul and Blake:

Paul - 19 pts 15 assists 4 steals and 1 TO. A line like that happened one time...in 30 years of playoff basketball.

Blake - 26p/12r/6a/4b a stat line that was only put up by 4 others since 1986 (Duncan, Hakeem, Shaq and Ralph Sampson).

And still, even with an off-the-charts second half by their two biggest stars, you never felt comfortable the Clips would take it and they simply couldn't close out the Spurs, did you...

In fact, if Diaw doesn't get a hand in the last shot, the Clips are yet again victimized by a mindless goaltend to make it a 1 pt game...the Spurs never out of it... always lurking.

Foul trouble plaguing them the whole game, whistles going against them the entire game (which I'll get to), Clips with a historic second half by their stars and without a goaltend, the game ends by a single point. Yet another nail biter in this series all but two of the games have been.

And this should be expected. I expected the Clips to win Game 6. Clips had the do or die mentality and the Spurs did not. That was a difference as well. That obviously changes in game 7.

If you back the Clips, you're simply not going to get historic performances night after night, back to back. They will contribute, but if they didn't contribute at those monster levels, the Spurs may have closed it out. And I'd rather have those historic performances tonight. And you just can't have them night after night. Paul and Blake were sensational to close it out in the second half. That's a lot to ask two games in a row, especially in a Game 7 against the Champs.

Too much given and now a bench that can't aid them. Advantage Spurs.

Reason #3 - The Favorable Whistle for the Clips

I won't belabor this one but it's obvious. The Clips were screwed by the whistle in Game 5 and the refs gave it back to them in game 6. It was the best $25,000 Doc Rivers ever paid after game 5.

It was so bad, even Bill Simmons joked Jamal Crawford got away with a 7 step travel in Game 6 in a tweet (with a mere 10 seconds left and the Clips up by 2):

https://fullyclips.com/2015/05/01/video-did-jamal-crawford-get-away-with-a-travel/

And there they were, Spurs lurking, never being put away, down by a mere 2 and even a Crawford travel call is left on the table opening the door for the final nail.

Redick was falling all over the place and getting far more calls than not. And he's deadly at the line.

One thing I'll promise you, the refs won't be as liberal with the whistle two games in a row for the Clips. One game yes. Two? No.

That should worry Clips backers as the refs come back to the middle for a war in game 7 (hopefully, ya never know what the zebras will do on any given night).

Reason #5 The end of the road

This is, truly it for the Big 3.

Manu is no longer under contract and is fading. Tim is no longer under contract after this year. Kawai wants a max deal. After all is said and done, the Big 3 will be no more.

That's not a reason to back the Spurs but it certainly adds a dash of incentive on the Spurs efforts to live on another day, to return home in another series.

It's a small reason but it's mentioned out of history and respect.

Will the Clippers be the team that will be the final team to put away the Big 3? That a tough sell. A small sell, but a tough one given their aforementioned shortcomings.

Reason #6 - Pop chewing his own out as 'soft'.

“We lost because the Clippers were determined, physical, focused, played harder than we did,” Popovich said, per Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times. “We were soft with loose balls. We were soft. We’d get a rebound and they’d knock it out of our hands... We should be embarrassed."

Folks, this is a game that was more nip and tuck almost the whole way than it was domination and look at how Pop lambasted his own publicly.

I've heard speeches from Knicks coaches like this...when they were blown out by 30 in game 51 of the regular season. Not in what was a nip and tuck game 6.

You think Pop and Co. are getting blown out tonight? Forget it.

They will make the adjustments and Pop just added salt to fresh wound with his words. And if the Spurs don't get blown out, it'll be close. Do you again trust the Clips in a close one? They can't help themselves. A goaltend here, a fumbling away of a dribble there (Blake this year and Paul in Game 5 against OKC last year). Hell, even Jamal almost travelled this game away this year.

Compare this to Doc complaining about the seeding to start the series (The Blazers basically forcing the Spurs into the 6 seed to face them because they won their division). Boy, what confidence he inspired in his own!

Doc is a leader. Pop? A mad genius. And I want Pop over a pist-off loss than I do over Doc off a road inspiring win.

Random notes:

1. Yes, in taking the Spurs you have to go on the road and win a game 7. 80+% of teams in this spot fail. I have nothing to counter that except the cap above. If you want to blindly cap a game based on that stat, then throw your entire cap out.

This is a road dominated series with each home team being 1-2 in their own building. And if there is a team that fears no other, home or road, it's the Spurs.

2. Big-time playoff experience - Need I tell you which team has it? The Spurs have won 50+ games and made the playoffs EVERY year Duncan and Pop have been together. With that resume, a game 7 is par for the course for them.

3. Spurs can't win 3 straight on the road - Again, why cap a game if you are going to blindly use these historical stats to support your cause? The same thing was said about the Clips losing 2 in a row at home. They of course can lose 3 in the wildest of wild card games.   

I'll use a historical stat against you if you try.

The last time a team won three straight on the road? The Spurs did it against the Hornets in 2008, with the Big 3 against... Chris Paul. Fair enough? I'm not using the stat but you might be.

This is a 7 game series. Sometimes you embrace an angle one game and completely abandon it the next. That is very common when a team plays each other 7 straight. 

In the end, I want the team with more experience, the Big 3, the team with the bench, with the better coach, the deepest team in the league, a team that SHOULD abandon the Hack-a-DeAndre (at the most inopportune times), a team that won't be hindered as much by whistles, a team of legends that is staring at its breakup over this Clippers team, it's flaws fully detailed above.

Do you once again trust Paul to hit every big shot (he's shown he can fold before)?

Do you trust Blake to hit that 17 footer the Spurs let him have in the clutch (they let him have it for a reason a lot)?

Do you trust DeAndre at the line or avoiding doing something stupid (he's going 50% at best once again)?

Do you trust Redick to put you over in this game (this isn;t UNC he's playing at Duke, this is the Spurs in a game 7)?

Do you trust the Clips bench players...any of them?  Will Big Baby be healthy (as bad as he is, he is still needed)? 

Lots of questions on the Clips side. Disturbing ones that will have you stammering like your Jack being cross-examined by Tom Cruise. The truth is right in front of you.

Some places even have this line rising to 2.5 (now at 5 Dimes). Wow. Not a huge bet for me, but a few units will do the trick for me to enjoy it. Clips have TONS of talent in their starting 5 and are quite the show. The show ends tonight and the Spurs are holding the hook.

In the end, the Spurs walk out of Staples to live another day and say two words:

Yippee-Kay-Yeah Muddafuc*

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iB1lI7ir8U

The Pick:

Spurs +2.5 over Clippers

Quote Originally Posted by OmriKi:

May the god bless you

(Blessing shower please)

On a site where I'm not liked too much in other forums, you may mean the Clips.

As bad as he is, Doc still gives him more minutes than Hawes or Jones. That should scream something about the lack of depth on the Clips bench.

I am all over Floyd (and props give you Floyd + draw options) for this one.  

I don't care about the chalk. 5 years ago? I'll take Manny. Not 5 years later.