Game 1 of the opening round...the best game to bet on. Dallas@Houston BIG WRITE-UP

I better win huh? Anyone who sees my threads can see that if my chosen team trails at any time during a game, the burning dollar signs come out in full force.

Unfortunately, those posters played the fool in my last NBA and CBB pick, however close those games were. I am not capping this one to be a nail biter but this is the playoffs so anything can happen. 

And come one troll, come all trolls, again. It's par for the course on this site.

The game is Rockets vs. Mavericks in Houston and I am taking the Rockets -5.

#1 reason to take the Rockets

See Begginerboy's thread on this...

The importance the Game 1 loss last year looms large here, perhaps the largest of any series.

This team suffered a BRUTAL 122-120 OT loss in Game 1  against the Blazers in 2014 up 9 with 4 minutes left. 4 crucial Dwight misses later and the Blazers took game 1 in a thrilling OT. This was in Houston folks, after a huge signing of Dwight who brought CHAMPIONSHIP talk at the beginning of that year. It was a massive letdown.

WORSE (but better for Rockets backers this year), they lost GAME 2 as well, when Lamarcus had the game of his life dropping 43 on 18-28 shooting. He was unstoppable.

The Mavs do not have a player anywhere near unstoppable outside of a Dirk of yesteryear who I don't believe will show up today. He'll be good. He won't be 'Lamarcus Game 2' good.

The precedence the Rockets/Coaches/Fans will put on Game 1 will be enormous. The Toyota Center will not be friendly confines tonight for the Mavs on the floor or from the stands. Take Game 1 and erase the disaster of last year, that is the goal...period. You have an easier opponent than the Blazers were and a better Harden, Ariza for Parsons (a good thing), a better defense (6th), and Dwight came back just in time.

Win the game. We'll talk spread later.

Reason #2 to take the Rockets

Houston's strong finish to the year.

I looked into the Wiz/Raptors long and hard but I can't play the game because of the way both teams finished...on the downside.

The Rockets after the All-Star break? Rock Solid.

20-9 (69% winning percentage)

You think the Spurs finished stronger? They did. By a single game at 21-8. And the Spurs were deadly of late weren't they. Houston was right there record-wise. Only the Clips and (21-7) and the Warriors (25-6) finished better out West.

So you are getting one of the best of the West going into the playoffs.

Better, they are 14-3 in their last 17 and two of those 3 losses came against the red hot Spurs. Newflash for the oblivious: The Mavs aren't the Spurs.

Are the Mavs hot? No way. 11-12 SU in their last 23 and 3 of those 11 came in meaningless end of year games against the Nuggets (where the entire bench played most of the second half and OT), @ Lakers (tanking) and @ the Blazers (resting players).

So they really come into the playoffs limping a bit, especially in comparison to the Rockets who hit their stride in the second half.

We'll make a case for the spread later. This is all about winning the game now.

Reason #3 to take the Rockets

Dwight over Parsons

Parsons was the big offseason acquisition of the Mavs. He hasn't played the last 6 games and if he does play who knows what he can give. And defensively he is terrible.

Dwight? Yes, he comes in a bit off his game due to previous injuries, but Dwight really shined in the playoffs last year. 26 pts 14 reb and 3 blks.

I'll take him to top Tyson any day of the week in the playoffs, even on a day when he doesn't come in full strength, if we are to compare two question marks from both teams. Parsons is the bigger of the two.

Dwight's minutes have been limited in his past several games and his box scores have still been solid. And Harden has taken over so many games, he's really taken the burden off Dwight (hence, those box scores could be even more impressive in reduced minutes).

Parsons? Who knows? We'll know tomorrow and we'll know fairly quickly if he can contribute. If he's off (and he needs time to get up to speed on the floor like all players coming off an injury), the Mavs will not be in good shape.

Reason #4 to take the Rockets

Need I say Harden?

I only say it because of how BAD he was last year against the Blazers last year. His FG% went form 45% to 37%. 3 point shooting? 36% to 29%. He still put up the points but he shot them out of games.

That won't happen this year folks. This is a new and vastly improved MVP-esque Harden. You can write it down that he won't shoot them out of the playoffs like last year.

And as a footnote to the previous point: Even Dwight just called Parsons "The Enemy". Parsons will have a tough time getting in a groove on the court in playoff basketball against a very hostile crowd and Dwight sounds (albeit only sounds) like he is ready to back his words up. I'll put my money on DH before an uncertain Chandler.

Reason #5 to take the Rockets

Too many unanswered questions on the Mavs.

Is Rondo ready to step up and guard Harden? Who will guard him if not?

Outside of that, the Mavs acquiring Rajon has resulted in disappointment, and that is an understatement.

His averages in 46 games with the Mavs? 9 pts 43% FG 6.5 Assists. Not too good...

That's not what Cuban or anyone on the team expected. If anything, he brought them a bit down, not up. He has been underwhelming and just because it is playoff time doesn't mean he'll turn on the rocket boosters. Yes, he has great playoff numbers....with better teams, some FAR better. And this team doesn't appear to do it for him. And if he tunes teammates and coaches out...watch out.

Again, he is an unknown I'm willing to bet against. You also have a (bit of a) sulking Ellis who will likely be guarded by Ariza, one of the very reasons Trevor was brought to Houston...to be a stopper on D.

I'll bet against Dallas with these unknowns.

Reason #6 to take the Rockets

The bulletin board material.

These teams already do not like each other.

Cuban added (a tanker full of) fuel to the fire just in time to back Houston:

“[The biggest difference is] practice time. There’s no more predictable team than the Rockets. You know exactly what they’re gonna do,” he says. “But James Harden is so good. That’s what analytics have begot. Right? Predictability. If you know what the percentages are, in the playoffs, you have time to counter them. Whether you’re good enough to do it is another question. Because they are very talented, and James Harden, I think, is the MVP. Because that’s not a very good team over there.”

My caps accentuate psychological angles. This may be worth 5 pts right here!

I could go on but I'll stop here.

Is 5 points too much? Rockets took the season series 3-1 but only won by 3,5, and 7 (and lost by 11). Well two of those 3 wins happened earlier in the season before Rondo came (who, it could be argued, takes this team down a notch), and three wins came with a healthy Parsons, who contributed 21 in the first game and he is not healthy here. And Dwight sat out one of those games. And still, the Rockets took the season series with all that going on.

So 5 seems a bit much doesn't it?

Not with reason #1. I think they will look to drill the Mavs because of it. Make this a statement game. Don't fu** up your entire year and lost game 1 and make game 2 at home a must win AGAIN for the second year in a row. Last year looms large in the mind of Harden and Dwight. Plus you have some wild cards like Brewer and Josh Smith who may chip in in clutch spots and a stopper in Ariza (and if he turns it on in game 1 like he did last year against the Pacers in Game 1, that's another good sign). Out of all 7 games, you can expect this kind of response in GAME 1 at home. And you have it right here in the Rockets.

Dallas will not be able to keep up ranking 18th in team defense. No Beverly will hurt the Rockets, as Pablo Prigioni is their only true PG, but no Lin will be a blessing and you don't have Lillard to burn you (who absolutely went off on those two). Plus they have adjusted without Beverly. Not for anything, but they've gone 9-3 without him.

A far weaker opponent than what the Blazers were last year, 6 reasons above, a lot of question marks on the Mavs, and an MVP contender ready to step up on a big stage against their hated rival, and some motivation from Cuban on the locker room door: yes, it takes a lot for me to lay 5 in a playoff game but for all that, I will lay the number. Plus, as a bonus, we get a premium start time (it's the last game tomorrow) and we don't have to worry about our teams coming out sluggish at 12:30 PM or in the early afternoon to throw everything off (yes, this is a real concern in those early starts).

The pick:

ROCKETS -5 over MAVERICKS 

Long series or not, Game 1 is the only game that matters for this bet and I'm looking for Houston to come out guns a blazin'.

Ya always have to worry about McHale and Carlisle is the one guy who can outsmart you. That's understandable.

I just think this game is far too important for Houston the coaching match-up to be a determining factor, even if it lies heavily on the Mavs side.

Plus you have Rondo who can set the whole team on fire. He's been a liability. But even if he turns it on, the Rockets have too many weapons, wild cards, home court and have been on a huge roll coming into this game.

And if the Houston coaches are more smart than stupid, they'll be reminded of how the Mavs almost stole Game 1 last year against the Spurs and won the next 2 outright. Let history dictate your focus if you are the Rockets.

Nobody "wrote the Mavs off". This is ONE game, not 7. That is it.

This isn't a series line or bet.

Of course, of course.

I harbor a bit of resentment towards Terry. 35 games for the Nets. 4.5 pts per game so I tend to forget him more than remember him.

But your point? A good one. Add it to the list.

If you were doing stand up with jokes like that, they'd have a tomato so big, it would need a catapult from medieval times to hit you with it. 

Hey BB, the scariest line by far is Spurs +2. This line being off a point or 2 is nothing compared to that (although you are right, this line is lower than expected). You know the squares lined up in droves to take the Spurs.

To me, this is a Rockets win bottom line and you have to get over 5.

And isn't gambling about getting the best line? 5 is a good line and this is basically a must-win for Houston. Just do it with a statement win as I expect them too and I am fine.

And thank god its not a 2:30 game. We get prime time and the psychological angle which we both love. Incredibly stupid and selfish move by Cuban.

That is correct. The surprise shouldn't be there.

And last year's Houston Blazers Game 1 (and even the entire series, the way it ended), GUT-WRENCHING.

And here they are with a chance at redemption with a lot of bullets in their chamber, Harden by far the biggest. It's a good spot.