Regular Boxing poster, first time MMA. I got to say I think Lesnar is fantastic value at -200 for UFC 116. If there wasn't such a mystery with his illness he would be more like -450.
I had a feeling Carwin would dominate Mir and so I came to pass but this is a different kettle of fish. Lesnar is a monster, a genetic freak and I think Carwin's style plays right into his hands. Carwin's undefeated record (which doesn't have many names on it), his destruction of Mir and Lesnar's injury means we get the juicy price of -200. I think its the best value you will see in UFC this year.
I would take this price now before the public get on it. Lesnar will massacre Carwin.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Regular Boxing poster, first time MMA. I got to say I think Lesnar is fantastic value at -200 for UFC 116. If there wasn't such a mystery with his illness he would be more like -450.
I had a feeling Carwin would dominate Mir and so I came to pass but this is a different kettle of fish. Lesnar is a monster, a genetic freak and I think Carwin's style plays right into his hands. Carwin's undefeated record (which doesn't have many names on it), his destruction of Mir and Lesnar's injury means we get the juicy price of -200. I think its the best value you will see in UFC this year.
I would take this price now before the public get on it. Lesnar will massacre Carwin.
1) you say that Carwin hasnt fought anyone, who has lesnar fought? he lost to mir/also beat mir and beat randy, and herring in a decision which IMO he wasnt very impressive in his fight. Carwin destroyed Mir, beat Gonzaga so its not a huge difference in opponents...
2) Lesnar loves to lay on his opponent and beat them up like he did with Mir. He wont be able to do this to Carwin who is crazy strong and an excellent wrestler and is able to control fights himself, he showed that vs mir by bullying him also.
So lets not expect Lesnar to dominate Carwin physically.
3) Lesnars injury is huge, long layoffs dont prove well for fighters as we have seen.
My own assessment, line is correct. I do agree with you on one thing, i think the line will go up as the fight comes and the public gets on it. Im actually hoping the line goes up for lesnar so i can bet on carwin.
I would disagree with you on many levels here.
1) you say that Carwin hasnt fought anyone, who has lesnar fought? he lost to mir/also beat mir and beat randy, and herring in a decision which IMO he wasnt very impressive in his fight. Carwin destroyed Mir, beat Gonzaga so its not a huge difference in opponents...
2) Lesnar loves to lay on his opponent and beat them up like he did with Mir. He wont be able to do this to Carwin who is crazy strong and an excellent wrestler and is able to control fights himself, he showed that vs mir by bullying him also.
So lets not expect Lesnar to dominate Carwin physically.
3) Lesnars injury is huge, long layoffs dont prove well for fighters as we have seen.
My own assessment, line is correct. I do agree with you on one thing, i think the line will go up as the fight comes and the public gets on it. Im actually hoping the line goes up for lesnar so i can bet on carwin.
And i do wish these two would of fought at the time they were supposed to, i think i had a big writeup on it here on covers over a year ago about it.. the line would of been huge on lesnar when lesnar was on fire coming off his huge wins. Would of been at least -330 to -400 lesnar and i would of loved betting on carwin (who was pretty unknown still) at +300 odds.
And i do wish these two would of fought at the time they were supposed to, i think i had a big writeup on it here on covers over a year ago about it.. the line would of been huge on lesnar when lesnar was on fire coming off his huge wins. Would of been at least -330 to -400 lesnar and i would of loved betting on carwin (who was pretty unknown still) at +300 odds.
GL on your decision, of course ive been wrong many many times but i just think the value is still with Carwin even though i would of loved to have gotten him last year when it would of been much higher. I think lesnar should be more of a -130 fav instead of the -200 fav he is.
GL on your decision, of course ive been wrong many many times but i just think the value is still with Carwin even though i would of loved to have gotten him last year when it would of been much higher. I think lesnar should be more of a -130 fav instead of the -200 fav he is.
GL on your decision, of course ive been wrong many many times but i just think the value is still with Carwin even though i would of loved to have gotten him last year when it would of been much higher. I think lesnar should be more of a -130 fav instead of the -200 fav he is.
Yeah only -130? I might put it in between both -200 and -130. There is something about betting on lesnar and gettin him at a decent price that is comforting. I think he will definitely dominate Carwin at times, but you are right carwin is strong and can wrestle. At the same time though those are both of lesnars specialties and I honestly see the only way that carwin wins is by KO. He will not out wrestle Brock that is for sure, but rather try and neutralize his wrestling.
I agree with your other post about the first fight they were supposed to have, the value would have been by far with carwin. I think carwin is really good and he has some crazy heavy hands, but who has he KOed that is really that great? Gonzaga is not nearly as good as people thought (Big KO against Cro Crop that proved to be nothing). I give him props for beating Mir because he is a respectable fighter, but his stand up is suspect (Mirs). I think Lesnar has a definite edge with the match up (hence the line), and Carwin needs to KO him to win. Just my opinion and I seriously cant wait for this fight.. GL guys
Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:
GL on your decision, of course ive been wrong many many times but i just think the value is still with Carwin even though i would of loved to have gotten him last year when it would of been much higher. I think lesnar should be more of a -130 fav instead of the -200 fav he is.
Yeah only -130? I might put it in between both -200 and -130. There is something about betting on lesnar and gettin him at a decent price that is comforting. I think he will definitely dominate Carwin at times, but you are right carwin is strong and can wrestle. At the same time though those are both of lesnars specialties and I honestly see the only way that carwin wins is by KO. He will not out wrestle Brock that is for sure, but rather try and neutralize his wrestling.
I agree with your other post about the first fight they were supposed to have, the value would have been by far with carwin. I think carwin is really good and he has some crazy heavy hands, but who has he KOed that is really that great? Gonzaga is not nearly as good as people thought (Big KO against Cro Crop that proved to be nothing). I give him props for beating Mir because he is a respectable fighter, but his stand up is suspect (Mirs). I think Lesnar has a definite edge with the match up (hence the line), and Carwin needs to KO him to win. Just my opinion and I seriously cant wait for this fight.. GL guys
Any chance this one makes it out of the first round? That's the thing with HW fights, they rarely go the full 3 or 5 and when they do go the distance it's usually a fight not worth watching like Mitrione/Kimbo.
My prediction right now: Lesnar via TKO in the first. I am not the least bit confident in it though. Lesnar is impossible to predict at this point in his career between the inexperience and layoff.
Any chance this one makes it out of the first round? That's the thing with HW fights, they rarely go the full 3 or 5 and when they do go the distance it's usually a fight not worth watching like Mitrione/Kimbo.
My prediction right now: Lesnar via TKO in the first. I am not the least bit confident in it though. Lesnar is impossible to predict at this point in his career between the inexperience and layoff.
Yeah only -130? I might put it in between both -200 and -130. There is something about betting on lesnar and gettin him at a decent price that is comforting. I think he will definitely dominate Carwin at times, but you are right carwin is strong and can wrestle. At the same time though those are both of lesnars specialties and I honestly see the only way that carwin wins is by KO. He will not out wrestle Brock that is for sure, but rather try and neutralize his wrestling.
I agree with your other post about the first fight they were supposed to have, the value would have been by far with carwin. I think carwin is really good and he has some crazy heavy hands, but who has he KOed that is really that great? Gonzaga is not nearly as good as people thought (Big KO against Cro Crop that proved to be nothing). I give him props for beating Mir because he is a respectable fighter, but his stand up is suspect (Mirs). I think Lesnar has a definite edge with the match up (hence the line), and Carwin needs to KO him to win. Just my opinion and I seriously cant wait for this fight.. GL guys
Daabirds I love your analysis here and I wish I could have made my point better. Brock Lesnar is the best pure Wrestler IMO in the heavyweight division in the UFC. The area's he dominates Carwin are strength and Wrestling and here is where I see Carwin Struggling. This may come down to Brock's injury/illness and layoff but can you see Brock stepping into a UFC ring less then 100%? I don't.
Moneyshot knows more about UFC then me. I will not deny this but I just feel Lesnar is a bigger better version of Carwin.
Quote Originally Posted by DaaBirds:
Yeah only -130? I might put it in between both -200 and -130. There is something about betting on lesnar and gettin him at a decent price that is comforting. I think he will definitely dominate Carwin at times, but you are right carwin is strong and can wrestle. At the same time though those are both of lesnars specialties and I honestly see the only way that carwin wins is by KO. He will not out wrestle Brock that is for sure, but rather try and neutralize his wrestling.
I agree with your other post about the first fight they were supposed to have, the value would have been by far with carwin. I think carwin is really good and he has some crazy heavy hands, but who has he KOed that is really that great? Gonzaga is not nearly as good as people thought (Big KO against Cro Crop that proved to be nothing). I give him props for beating Mir because he is a respectable fighter, but his stand up is suspect (Mirs). I think Lesnar has a definite edge with the match up (hence the line), and Carwin needs to KO him to win. Just my opinion and I seriously cant wait for this fight.. GL guys
Daabirds I love your analysis here and I wish I could have made my point better. Brock Lesnar is the best pure Wrestler IMO in the heavyweight division in the UFC. The area's he dominates Carwin are strength and Wrestling and here is where I see Carwin Struggling. This may come down to Brock's injury/illness and layoff but can you see Brock stepping into a UFC ring less then 100%? I don't.
Moneyshot knows more about UFC then me. I will not deny this but I just feel Lesnar is a bigger better version of Carwin.
im with u on lesnar here..... i am hoping the odds get closer to -130 like money thinks it might....... i just simply wont bet against brock until i see him get beat (mir was a fluke to me)..... simply put i have seen carwin hurt.... gonzaga almost finished him.... and i dont want to hear it just pissed him off, cuz he was grabbing for gonzagas shorts after that shot... meanwhile i have never seen lesnar in that same kind of trouble. has he been hit?... yes.... but never hurt to that extent imo.... i think lesnar is quicker than carwin... maybe not as much power but i think he can outwrestle him.... i will say i was very impressed with carwin against mir.... i thought mirs gameplan was shit.... he didnt even try to block a punch he was so concerned with being on his back.... he thought he could take the shots at least thats how it looked to me..... not smart..... anyway i cant wait for this fight is it july 3rd yet??? good luck whichever u choose
im with u on lesnar here..... i am hoping the odds get closer to -130 like money thinks it might....... i just simply wont bet against brock until i see him get beat (mir was a fluke to me)..... simply put i have seen carwin hurt.... gonzaga almost finished him.... and i dont want to hear it just pissed him off, cuz he was grabbing for gonzagas shorts after that shot... meanwhile i have never seen lesnar in that same kind of trouble. has he been hit?... yes.... but never hurt to that extent imo.... i think lesnar is quicker than carwin... maybe not as much power but i think he can outwrestle him.... i will say i was very impressed with carwin against mir.... i thought mirs gameplan was shit.... he didnt even try to block a punch he was so concerned with being on his back.... he thought he could take the shots at least thats how it looked to me..... not smart..... anyway i cant wait for this fight is it july 3rd yet??? good luck whichever u choose
im with u on lesnar here..... i am hoping the odds get closer to -130 like money thinks it might....... i just simply wont bet against brock until i see him get beat (mir was a fluke to me)..... simply put i have seen carwin hurt.... gonzaga almost finished him.... and i dont want to hear it just pissed him off, cuz he was grabbing for gonzagas shorts after that shot... meanwhile i have never seen lesnar in that same kind of trouble. has he been hit?... yes.... but never hurt to that extent imo.... i think lesnar is quicker than carwin... maybe not as much power but i think he can outwrestle him.... i will say i was very impressed with carwin against mir.... i thought mirs gameplan was shit.... he didnt even try to block a punch he was so concerned with being on his back.... he thought he could take the shots at least thats how it looked to me..... not smart..... anyway i cant wait for this fight is it july 3rd yet??? good luck whichever u choose
i never said it might get to -130, im saying IMO it should be -130 actual odds... i think u guys will be shocked that night, hopefully cause i have carwin. Carwins power is sick and lesnar, his standup isnt that great and his chin will be tested, we all saw carwin get hit square and within seconds he knocked the guy out...
im really looking forward to the match and i think it could go either way. if lesnar wins, it will probably be in the later rounds or decision, i highly doubt he knocks out carwin or get him early. that im almost positive of.
Quote Originally Posted by Bighurt:
im with u on lesnar here..... i am hoping the odds get closer to -130 like money thinks it might....... i just simply wont bet against brock until i see him get beat (mir was a fluke to me)..... simply put i have seen carwin hurt.... gonzaga almost finished him.... and i dont want to hear it just pissed him off, cuz he was grabbing for gonzagas shorts after that shot... meanwhile i have never seen lesnar in that same kind of trouble. has he been hit?... yes.... but never hurt to that extent imo.... i think lesnar is quicker than carwin... maybe not as much power but i think he can outwrestle him.... i will say i was very impressed with carwin against mir.... i thought mirs gameplan was shit.... he didnt even try to block a punch he was so concerned with being on his back.... he thought he could take the shots at least thats how it looked to me..... not smart..... anyway i cant wait for this fight is it july 3rd yet??? good luck whichever u choose
i never said it might get to -130, im saying IMO it should be -130 actual odds... i think u guys will be shocked that night, hopefully cause i have carwin. Carwins power is sick and lesnar, his standup isnt that great and his chin will be tested, we all saw carwin get hit square and within seconds he knocked the guy out...
im really looking forward to the match and i think it could go either way. if lesnar wins, it will probably be in the later rounds or decision, i highly doubt he knocks out carwin or get him early. that im almost positive of.
i think the odds will actually go up witht more people backing lesnar, lesnar should be the favorite no doubt. and the books want to level off the bets right? even action on both, so the public will support lesnar so ill be waiting till fight time to bet on carwin and hope to get +200 or close to it..
if lesnar knocks out or finishes carwin in the first round or two i will be shocked and i will gladly come in here and eat my words and say i was wrong. plus i will lesnar full props.....
i think the odds will actually go up witht more people backing lesnar, lesnar should be the favorite no doubt. and the books want to level off the bets right? even action on both, so the public will support lesnar so ill be waiting till fight time to bet on carwin and hope to get +200 or close to it..
if lesnar knocks out or finishes carwin in the first round or two i will be shocked and i will gladly come in here and eat my words and say i was wrong. plus i will lesnar full props.....
and herring in a decision which IMO he wasnt very impressive in his fight.
Money...Lesner absolutly destroyed Herring. "wasn't very impressive"? Has Herring faught since that fight? I do know he spent some quality time in the hospital after that fight.
Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:
and herring in a decision which IMO he wasnt very impressive in his fight.
Money...Lesner absolutly destroyed Herring. "wasn't very impressive"? Has Herring faught since that fight? I do know he spent some quality time in the hospital after that fight.
i never said it might get to -130, im saying IMO it should be -130 actual odds... i think u guys will be shocked that night, hopefully cause i have carwin. Carwins power is sick and lesnar, his standup isnt that great and his chin will be tested, we all saw carwin get hit square and within seconds he knocked the guy out...
im really looking forward to the match and i think it could go either way. if lesnar wins, it will probably be in the later rounds or decision, i highly doubt he knocks out carwin or get him early. that im almost positive of.
Yeah I got what you were saying, was giving my opinion that I thought it shouldnt be -200 because Carwin looks to be that good, but shouldnt be -130 because Lesnar is too freakish to be giving that small number but rather somewhere in between. I completely agree that Lesnar wins by decision if he does, or Carwin by KO. His power is definitely freakish as well, but I doubt Lesnar wants to even give him the chance. I could see Lesnar puttin him out with the ground and pound, but I honestly havent seen enough of Carwin on the ground to give a definitive opinion on that.
In my opinion Brocks layoff is a little different than most fighters because he is of such a freakish size, but the only thing that scares me is that I heard he lost a shitload of weight and that can definitely change a persons build. It is the only thing holdin me back from makin a big bet, but it also contributes to the line being lower than the original match up
Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:
i never said it might get to -130, im saying IMO it should be -130 actual odds... i think u guys will be shocked that night, hopefully cause i have carwin. Carwins power is sick and lesnar, his standup isnt that great and his chin will be tested, we all saw carwin get hit square and within seconds he knocked the guy out...
im really looking forward to the match and i think it could go either way. if lesnar wins, it will probably be in the later rounds or decision, i highly doubt he knocks out carwin or get him early. that im almost positive of.
Yeah I got what you were saying, was giving my opinion that I thought it shouldnt be -200 because Carwin looks to be that good, but shouldnt be -130 because Lesnar is too freakish to be giving that small number but rather somewhere in between. I completely agree that Lesnar wins by decision if he does, or Carwin by KO. His power is definitely freakish as well, but I doubt Lesnar wants to even give him the chance. I could see Lesnar puttin him out with the ground and pound, but I honestly havent seen enough of Carwin on the ground to give a definitive opinion on that.
In my opinion Brocks layoff is a little different than most fighters because he is of such a freakish size, but the only thing that scares me is that I heard he lost a shitload of weight and that can definitely change a persons build. It is the only thing holdin me back from makin a big bet, but it also contributes to the line being lower than the original match up
Money...Lesner absolutly destroyed Herring. "wasn't very impressive"? Has Herring faught since that fight? I do know he spent some quality time in the hospital after that fight.
i should of clarified, i wasnt impressed cause he had chances to finish herring but couldnt..
Quote Originally Posted by Profit01:
Money...Lesner absolutly destroyed Herring. "wasn't very impressive"? Has Herring faught since that fight? I do know he spent some quality time in the hospital after that fight.
i should of clarified, i wasnt impressed cause he had chances to finish herring but couldnt..
If brock takes a shot from carwin he will be seeing birds, Brock hasnt been hit very hard yet, and when he took that knee from Mir he was out of it for a good 20 seconds, Shane will finish him if he stuns him
Carwin
If brock takes a shot from carwin he will be seeing birds, Brock hasnt been hit very hard yet, and when he took that knee from Mir he was out of it for a good 20 seconds, Shane will finish him if he stuns him
Lesnar is certainly not one of the best value plays at the year at -200. Dong Hyun Kim for this Saturday's card is at +120. That's about as good as it gets.
GL
Lesnar is certainly not one of the best value plays at the year at -200. Dong Hyun Kim for this Saturday's card is at +120. That's about as good as it gets.
Lesnar is certainly not one of the best value plays at the year at -200. Dong Hyun Kim for this Saturday's card is at +120. That's about as good as it gets.
GL
you are really confident in kim huh, your confidence makes me want to put a bit down for myself but those asians havent been too good lately.
Quote Originally Posted by gsprush:
Lesnar is certainly not one of the best value plays at the year at -200. Dong Hyun Kim for this Saturday's card is at +120. That's about as good as it gets.
GL
you are really confident in kim huh, your confidence makes me want to put a bit down for myself but those asians havent been too good lately.
Any chance this one makes it out of the first round? That's the thing with HW fights, they rarely go the full 3 or 5 and when they do go the distance it's usually a fight not worth watching like Mitrione/Kimbo.
Mitrione/Kimbo did not go 3 or 5 rounds, and how was it not worth watching?
In response to some other points:
In no way is Lesnar "much" stronger than Shane.
A -450 line on this fight would be insane.
Lesnar's inability to finish Herring was unimpressive. I don't know what you are concluding from Heath not having fought since. I think he realized he wasn't a contender, wasn't making that much money, and decided he didn't want to fight anymore. He had been around since Pride.
Quote Originally Posted by DTher85:
Any chance this one makes it out of the first round? That's the thing with HW fights, they rarely go the full 3 or 5 and when they do go the distance it's usually a fight not worth watching like Mitrione/Kimbo.
Mitrione/Kimbo did not go 3 or 5 rounds, and how was it not worth watching?
In response to some other points:
In no way is Lesnar "much" stronger than Shane.
A -450 line on this fight would be insane.
Lesnar's inability to finish Herring was unimpressive. I don't know what you are concluding from Heath not having fought since. I think he realized he wasn't a contender, wasn't making that much money, and decided he didn't want to fight anymore. He had been around since Pride.
Mitrione/Kimbo did not go 3 or 5 rounds, and how was it not worth watching?
In response to some other points:
In no way is Lesnar "much" stronger than Shane.
A -450 line on this fight would be insane.
Lesnar's inability to finish Herring was unimpressive. I don't know what you are concluding from Heath not having fought since. I think he realized he wasn't a contender, wasn't making that much money, and decided he didn't want to fight anymore. He had been around since Pride.
you and i think a lot alike.
Quote Originally Posted by esplanade:
Mitrione/Kimbo did not go 3 or 5 rounds, and how was it not worth watching?
In response to some other points:
In no way is Lesnar "much" stronger than Shane.
A -450 line on this fight would be insane.
Lesnar's inability to finish Herring was unimpressive. I don't know what you are concluding from Heath not having fought since. I think he realized he wasn't a contender, wasn't making that much money, and decided he didn't want to fight anymore. He had been around since Pride.
you are really confident in kim huh, your confidence makes me want to put a bit down for myself but those asians havent been too good lately.
Kim's performances against Karo and particularly TJ Grant were just too consummate for him not to outwork Sadollah based on what we've seen of him. When he's on his back, Sadollah wont find the armbars young wrestlers like Dollaway X2 and Gerald Harris served him up.
One pause on a MASSIVE bet on Kim I'd have is he is coming off a knee injury. Nonetheless, I have a few hundred on him as opposed to $1000 +.
Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:
you are really confident in kim huh, your confidence makes me want to put a bit down for myself but those asians havent been too good lately.
Kim's performances against Karo and particularly TJ Grant were just too consummate for him not to outwork Sadollah based on what we've seen of him. When he's on his back, Sadollah wont find the armbars young wrestlers like Dollaway X2 and Gerald Harris served him up.
One pause on a MASSIVE bet on Kim I'd have is he is coming off a knee injury. Nonetheless, I have a few hundred on him as opposed to $1000 +.
Love Carwin and will take him based only on the great line if nothing else b'c nobody can tell me that Lesnar's faced a harder hitting bull than this guy
His meat hooks are huge
Love Carwin and will take him based only on the great line if nothing else b'c nobody can tell me that Lesnar's faced a harder hitting bull than this guy
1) you say that Carwin hasnt fought anyone, who has lesnar fought? he lost to mir/also beat mir and beat randy, and herring in a decision which IMO he wasnt very impressive in his fight. Carwin destroyed Mir, beat Gonzaga so its not a huge difference in opponents...
2) Lesnar loves to lay on his opponent and beat them up like he did with Mir. He wont be able to do this to Carwin who is crazy strong and an excellent wrestler and is able to control fights himself, he showed that vs mir by bullying him also.
So lets not expect Lesnar to dominate Carwin physically.
3) Lesnars injury is huge, long layoffs dont prove well for fighters as we have seen.
My own assessment, line is correct. I do agree with you on one thing, i think the line will go up as the fight comes and the public gets on it. Im actually hoping the line goes up for lesnar so i can bet on carwin.
Moneyshot, I agree.
The wrestling and strength should be even.
But d@mn, Carwin has better power in his fists.
Carwin ml (big)
Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:
I would disagree with you on many levels here.
1) you say that Carwin hasnt fought anyone, who has lesnar fought? he lost to mir/also beat mir and beat randy, and herring in a decision which IMO he wasnt very impressive in his fight. Carwin destroyed Mir, beat Gonzaga so its not a huge difference in opponents...
2) Lesnar loves to lay on his opponent and beat them up like he did with Mir. He wont be able to do this to Carwin who is crazy strong and an excellent wrestler and is able to control fights himself, he showed that vs mir by bullying him also.
So lets not expect Lesnar to dominate Carwin physically.
3) Lesnars injury is huge, long layoffs dont prove well for fighters as we have seen.
My own assessment, line is correct. I do agree with you on one thing, i think the line will go up as the fight comes and the public gets on it. Im actually hoping the line goes up for lesnar so i can bet on carwin.
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