With the new tackling and catch rules (not sure why but I haven't heard much about the catch rule so far this preseason) it seems likely offenses will benefit leading to higher scoring games. Because of this theory I decided to look up historical point averages in the NFL.
For the last 10 years teams have averaged between 21.5 to 23.4 (22.37 mean score) total.
I checked Betonline to see W1 Ov/Un and found that the average was 45.8666... which is 22.9333... per team. So it seems the new rules have already been priced into the betting spread by about .5 points a team or 1 whole point a game.
I'm curious if people think that seems reasonable or if we should be expecting even higher scores. Thoughts?
With the new tackling and catch rules (not sure why but I haven't heard much about the catch rule so far this preseason) it seems likely offenses will benefit leading to higher scoring games. Because of this theory I decided to look up historical point averages in the NFL.
For the last 10 years teams have averaged between 21.5 to 23.4 (22.37 mean score) total.
I checked Betonline to see W1 Ov/Un and found that the average was 45.8666... which is 22.9333... per team. So it seems the new rules have already been priced into the betting spread by about .5 points a team or 1 whole point a game.
I'm curious if people think that seems reasonable or if we should be expecting even higher scores. Thoughts?
Nice work. I too am under the impression that scoring will be higher this year as well, mostly due to that yellow flag flying all over the place, and in what seems like an impossible way to tackle for defenders.
Looks like the books have made a small adjustment all ready. Now let bettors inflate the totals some more.
Unders will forever be the books friend by the end of the year. There is just too much bet% on overs in every sport.
Nice work. I too am under the impression that scoring will be higher this year as well, mostly due to that yellow flag flying all over the place, and in what seems like an impossible way to tackle for defenders.
Looks like the books have made a small adjustment all ready. Now let bettors inflate the totals some more.
Unders will forever be the books friend by the end of the year. There is just too much bet% on overs in every sport.
Nice work. I too am under the impression that scoring will be higher this year as well, mostly due to that yellow flag flying all over the place, and in what seems like an impossible way to tackle for defenders.
Looks like the books have made a small adjustment all ready. Now let bettors inflate the totals some more.
Unders will forever be the books friend by the end of the year. There is just too much bet% on overs in every sport.
Yes, viewers love the overs. I prefer betting unders (usually more value like undermysac said), but I readily admit that a long, tough pass reception is more exciting than a punt and a fair catch.
Nice work. I too am under the impression that scoring will be higher this year as well, mostly due to that yellow flag flying all over the place, and in what seems like an impossible way to tackle for defenders.
Looks like the books have made a small adjustment all ready. Now let bettors inflate the totals some more.
Unders will forever be the books friend by the end of the year. There is just too much bet% on overs in every sport.
Yes, viewers love the overs. I prefer betting unders (usually more value like undermysac said), but I readily admit that a long, tough pass reception is more exciting than a punt and a fair catch.
Not necessarily. Scoring will always be a little higher early in the year, because the weather is nicer. "Unders will forever be the books friend by the end of the year. There is just too much bet% on overs in every sport."Overs/unders are almost always very close to 50%.Since 2003, there have been 1968 overs, 1964 unders and 62 pushes. That is 50.05%
I don't know why but I didn't even think of this. So good weather this year combined with being early in the season and a lot more penalties on defenses this year... Maybe the penalties aren't being priced in at all yet. BRB placing bets on all Overs W1
Not necessarily. Scoring will always be a little higher early in the year, because the weather is nicer. "Unders will forever be the books friend by the end of the year. There is just too much bet% on overs in every sport."Overs/unders are almost always very close to 50%.Since 2003, there have been 1968 overs, 1964 unders and 62 pushes. That is 50.05%
I don't know why but I didn't even think of this. So good weather this year combined with being early in the season and a lot more penalties on defenses this year... Maybe the penalties aren't being priced in at all yet. BRB placing bets on all Overs W1
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