Why Winning Is Really Losing
In an industry filled with records, percentages and trends, we are up front and personal with streaks each and every day. Streaks are a vital part of gambling. The only guarantee in sports betting is a losing streak taking place somewhere in your week, month or season. It has to happen; no one wins day after day consistently over a long term. The biggest key to success is being able to handle the streak and not let them get to you. You have to ignore the urge to chase and always bet within your bankroll. If a losing streak bothers you, and forces you to bump your bet to try "make back" your losses, odds are your betting too much per game. Adjust your bet per game amount to the point where a loss doesn’t eat you up inside. Turn your betting into investing. Don’t aim for a good day, or week or month, but aim for a good season.
Here is an interesting fact I discovered in my research. If you are like me, you play on average 2-5 plays a day, roughly 20-25 a week and aim to cash 55% of those bets. With football season it usually means playing the Thursday/Friday night game with 5-8 games each on Saturday and Sunday then playing the Monday Night Game to finish it off. Somewhere in there we have 4-6 basketball plays as well making the average per week at 4 a day.
The probability of winning all four games on a given day is 9.25%. Winning 3 of 4 is 30%. Splitting 2-2 is a 36.75%, hitting one of four is a 20% shot and going 0 for on the day is a 4% chance. Looking at that information, the chances of having a winning day (4-0 or 3-1) is just only a 39.25%. So if you end up hitting 55% at the end of the season, 60% of the days in the season will in fact be losing days.
Keep in mind these calculations DO NOT apply to those who chase or have a fluctuating bet size. If you change the amount you wager each game then you’re making it nearly impossible to hit at the all mighty 55% rate long term. If you were to have a magical 60% season, you would lose 53% of the days you bet. This is why so many people go broke betting sports. They see more losing days then they do winning days and try to flip that script around. Chasing and doubling down is the demise to nearly 90% of gamblers at one point in a NFL season. Realize your bankroll will ONLY be at a new high on average once every 15 days. With the vig the way it is, winning is literally about losing less, not winning more. The key is to minimize the losing streaks, keep the bet size the same and wait out for the winning streak.
I have had an average start to the NFL season (10-8). The record is not glamorous or flashy, but I have kept consistent with my bet size and practiced strict money management. At the rate I am going I will profit roughly one game per week. Assuming my bet size is $100, I will profit $1700 off a $15000 (150 games) investment. That makes my R.O.I. 11.30% over a 6 month period. Considering an average stocks performance is graded over a 12 month period I will put my average to the same time period. That will gives me a 12 month R.O.I. of 22.60%, more than double the average 10% stock return.
It may not be pretty, but here again I show how keeping your head on your shoulders and practicing strict money management over a long term period will pay off.
Get 'em!!
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