Working on the write ups for this weekend's playoff games now....
NBA:
New Jersey @ Denver Under 198.5 for 2.2 U’s to win 2 Units
LA Lakers @ Utah Over 184.5
for 2.2 U’s to win 2 U’s
LA Clippers +4 U’s for 1.1 U’s to win 1 U
New York Knicks +4 for 2.2 U’s to win 2 U’s
Philiadephia @ New York Over 196.5 2.2 U’s to win 2 U’s
NCAABB: Temple +9.5 for 3.3 U’s to win 3 U’s
Working on the write ups for this weekend's playoff games now....
NBA:
New Jersey @ Denver Under 198.5 for 2.2 U’s to win 2 Units
LA Lakers @ Utah Over 184.5
for 2.2 U’s to win 2 U’s
LA Clippers +4 U’s for 1.1 U’s to win 1 U
New York Knicks +4 for 2.2 U’s to win 2 U’s
Philiadephia @ New York Over 196.5 2.2 U’s to win 2 U’s
NCAABB: Temple +9.5 for 3.3 U’s to win 3 U’s
Working on the write ups for this weekend's playoff games now....
NBA:
New Jersey @ Denver Under 198.5 for 2.2 U’s to win 2 Units 
LA Lakers @ Utah Over 184.5
for 2.2 U’s to win 2 U’s
LA Clippers +4 U’s for 1.1 U’s to win 1 U 
New York Knicks -4 for 2.2 U’s to win 2 U’s
Philiadephia @ New York Over 196.5 2.2 U’s to win 2 U’s
NCAABB: Temple +9.5 for 3.3 U’s to win 3 U’s
SAINTS @ 49ERS
There is opportunity in betting games that the public has a
skewed view of. The Saints / 49ers game
is one of those games.
My contention is that the Saints are not nearly as dominant
as what the public thinks they are on the road playing top ranked talent, and
in open air stadiums. They have played only
one playoff team on the road in an open air stadium, and lost (GB). Even against mediocre opponents on the road their
performance dropped off significantly, and add the open air stadium factor,
they get even worse.
Overall scoring:
The Saints are behind the league leading Packers in total
pts scored by only 13 pts for the season.
In the SuperDome:
·
@ home the Saints average 41.6 ppg
Saints away from
the SuperDome
·
They average 27.25 pts per game on the road. (14.35 less pts per game than @ home)
·
In open air stadiums they average 25.8 ppg (15.8
ppg less than @ home)
·
At home, their average scoring margin is +22.6
pts
·
Away their average scoring margin is +2.75 pts
(a difference of almost 20 pts per game)
·
In open air stadiums, the Saints scoring margin
is +1.4 (that is against 5 teams with only 2 teams with winning records: Tennessee and Green Bay)
In
open air stadiums:
·
The Saints are 3-2 for a combined score of 129-122
(average score of 25.8 to 24.4)
·
The Saints have played only 1 playoff team
away/open air: Green Bay and Lost 37-42
·
They average 25.8 ppg in open air stadiums (vs
Green Bay, Jacksonville, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Tennessee.)
·
Only 1 of the Saints last 10 games were played
in an open top stadium, and not counting that game; the Saints averaged 36.7
ppg, and that one game away/outdoors?
Tennessee where they hung on to win 22-17.
Vs Quality teams:
·
On the road Vs. Top 10 pass defenses, top 10
defenses, or vs top 10 pass offenses the Saints are: GB L 34-42, Jacksonville W
23-10, STL L 21-31, Atlanta W 26-23, 2-2 with a negative combined score of 104 to 106 (ave. score of 26 to 26.5).
Turnover margin in
away games:
They Vs Green Bay -1, they lost, Vs Jacksonville -1, they
won, Vs Tampa Bay -4, they lost, Vs STL
-1 they lost, They played 8 away games, they lost the turnover battle in 4 of
those games, and lost 3 of them. In
those 4 games they had a combined score of 98 to 109 (that includes playing Jacksonville
with their league worst offense)
NOTE: The 49ers have failed to
win a games turnover battle by +1 or better only twice this season: vs Detroit,
and vs Baltimore, and the Saints have a negative season turnover margin of -3.
Last Saints
playoff wins on the road:
0, none, nada, not one in their history.
San Francisco:
Is a run it up the gut, and pass into the flat type of team
(only 7.1 yards per pass). The Saints
have a much better run D, than their pass D.
Look for Harbaugh to use more passes (short passes into the flat) to
offset N.O.’s blitz packages.
San Fran has averaged the NFL’s 8th best yards per rush average,
but they have struggled to run the ball vs top 10 run defenses (vs Dallas 3.1
per carry, vs cincy 1.7 per carry, vs Baltimore 3.5, vs pitt 3.3). New Orlean’s 6th ranked run D will
necessitate San Fran establish a passing game early. San Fran will pass on the vast majority of 1st downs, but we may see a noticeable
increase of passing on 3rd downs as well (to attack N.O.’s weak
passing D, and to offset their blitz’s with short passes into the flat).
Strategies:
Harbaugh is going to establish the short passing game right
away in hopes of making the Saints loosen up their loading of the box. 49ers know they are in trouble if they don’t get
an early lead so they are going to use short passes, passes to the flat, and
draws to make the Saints pay for their over the top blitzes. The 49ers get a lead they will try to slow
the game down and work the clock.
Peyton: He is going
to attempt the run even less than he normally does, but that is going to leave
him vulnerable to the 49ers opportunistic defense. His team is substantially less effective on
real grass, and the fact the Candlestick Park is very close to sea level will
perpetuate the disadvantage of less secure footing that will hurt N.O.
substantially more than it hurts the 49ers.
Should the 49ers get a lead Brees will take more chances than he
normally does.
Intagiables:
·
N.O. has went 9 straight ATS, if they beat the
spread on Saturday, they will be the 3rd team to have a 10, or more game win streak vs
ATS in the last 25 (or more) years. If
the Saints wins vs the spread for the next 3 games, it will be the first time
that was done in 25 years by any team.
·
The Saints have never won a road playoff game…EVER
I have this @ the
SAN FRANCISCO +4 FOR 6.6 UNITS
NEW ORLEANS / SAN FRANCISCO UNDER 47.5 FOR 4.4 UNITS
Texans at Raven -7.5
Will Joe Flacco
step up to be the leader the Ravens have groomed him to be?
Flacco is no stranger to playing against tough defenses;
playing in the AFC North—bar none, the toughest defensive division in the NFL
(the only division with 4 teams in the top 10 in overall defense this season).
·
At home
vs top 10 pass D’s (as is Houston’s #3 rated pass D), he has an average passer
rating of 93.65
·
At home
vs top 10 run D’s (as is Houston’s #4 ranked Run D), he has an average passer
rating of 100.4.
·
Vs
Houston in their first meeting in Baltimore this season, he had a passer rating
of 78.5, and went 20 for 33 with 0 TD’s and 1 INT
·
Flacco’s
average passer rating @ home is 85.9.
Flacco Blunder games:
@ Home vs NYJ’s:
Flacco put up one of the worst performance’s that I have
seen by a team that made the playoffs (that I can remember anyway), the only
reason the Ravens won that game is due to Mark Sanchez being even worse than
Flacco was. Flacco was 10 for 31 for 163
yards with 0 TD’s, 1 INT and no Ints(I know it does not sound too bad, but it
was). Flacco had a season worst passer
rating in that game (37.4)
Flacco vs. Arizona:
had struggled at home
against Arizona, and made some pretty bad mistakes. He fumbled deep in his own territory to give
AZ an very short field for their first, and go ahead, touchdown in the second
quarter. Bmore gave up a kickoff return
for a TD, and then Flacco threw an INT to give the Cards another short
field/TD. Flacco went 5 for 6 in the
opening drive of the 3rd Quarter to set Rice up for a 1 yard TD
score to bring Bmore within 10 of AZ. On
the next possession Flacco fumbled again, but the Ravens retained the
ball. Flacco then went 5 for 9 to set
Rice up for another 1 yard TD run.
There does not seem to be rhyme of reason as to why Flacco,
who has a mediocre season Passer Rating of 80.9, can have a P.R’ing of 117 vs
the leagues best pass D Pittsburgh Steelers, and a P.R’ing of 37 against the
Jets. Two things I have to give him
credit for…1) he wins, and does well vs ATS.
2) He does pretty well in big games this season (i.e. Pitt 1, and Pitt
2, SF—pressure as they were tied w/ Pitt for division lead.). it is misleading to look at his season passer
ratings over the last few years (down from the last 2 years, because he went
against 4 more tough defenses that were not so tough the last 2 years—Cleveland
and Cincinnati. I think Flacco plays one
of his better games vs a good all around D of Houston. It is also interesting to note that Flacco
has faced 11 of his 16 regular season games vs teams that were rated in the top
10 in overall defense, top 10 in pass defense, or top 10 in run defense.
Can TJ Yate Be ‘mistake-free’
to keep his team close ( within 7.5 of the Ravens)?
Yates played 7 games this season; 3 were against top
defenses (2X Cincinnati, and 1 against Jacksonville), but that is kind of
misleading as well. Both Jacksonville
and Cincinnati’s defenses were mere shadows of what they were in the early
season. Cincinatti Lost their best run
stopper (Sims) in the Cleveland game on Nov. 27th and they never
seemed to be able to recover from the loss. On another note, I had Houston last
week, but realize how lucky I got when Cincy secondary missed 3 would be INT’s
(one of which would have been a pick 6 without a doubt), but Yates had a 97.7
passer rating all the same. Jax got progressively more beat up (they gave 25.8
pts per game in their last 5 games (the game before was against Houston who
only scored 20 against them), and only 18.18 in the first 11 games of the
season.
·
Yates has
an average passer rating (vs top Defenses) of 83.3.
·
Yate has
an average passer rating of 84.1 on the road.
·
Yates has
an average passer rating of 75.7 vs top defenses on the road.
The Ravens will be the absolute best defense that Yates has
faced, bar none. It will be in an
extremely hostile environment. This is
the biggest game of his life, and I wonder if he is flipping his hotel remote
right now, as opposed to sleeping—how does a rookie QB sleep before the biggest
day of his life having never played an NFL game until the last 2 months
ago? Don’t get me wrong, I think T.J. is
going to be an above average starting QB in the NFL, but I have very serious
doubts about his ability to win this game on his arm if need be.
Ray Rice/Ricky
Williams Vs Arian Foster/Ben Tate; who will dominate?
Arian Foster lit it up last weekend vs Cincy, but once more…
Cincy has not been the same run D since losing Sims for the season. Before Sims was injured, the Bengals allowed
only 3.5 yards per attempt, but since losing him they allowed an average of 4.8
per carry (which would leave them in bottom 3rd of the league in run
D. In the first trip to Baltimore,
Foster had only 49 yards on 15 carries (3.2 per rush), and Tate had 41 yards on
9 carries (4.5). Bmore has a formidable
Run D that will not allow Foster/Tate to take over the game, and they are going
to allow Yates the opportunity to beat them on his arm, but not on the ground;
they certainly have the personnel to carry out that game plan. The only way Foster / Tate will do real
damage is if Yates opens up an effective passing game, which would force
Baltimore into pass prevention.
Rice had 101 yards on 23 carries vs Houston, allowed by
Flacco’s 305 yards passing on 33 attempts.
Rice has an average of 4.7 per carry this season, and I think the week
off has served him well. Williams has
4.1 per carry this season, and is a formidable option when resting Rice. Although the Texans are ranked 4th
in rush defense, they have not had success against good running teams. Houston faced
only 4 top 10 rushing teams, and lost every time they did; Carolina (they lost 28-13,
and gave up 4.88 per carry), New Orleans (they lost, and gave up 4.55 yards per
carry), Oakland (they lost 25-20 and gave up 4.3 yards per carry), Baltimore
(they lost 29-14, and gave up 3.76 yards per carry). Rice and Williams are going to be primed for
this game, and I think they will have their way vs an over rated Houston run
defense.
Texans never won a
road playoff game, and the Ravens have not won @ home (playoffs) in over a
decade, so what new trend will begin?
Of course Houston has never won a road playoff game, but
they never lost one either. The Trend
more concerning is Balt’s 4-4 record in their last 8 playoff games, and the
fact that Flacco has never played in a home playoff game; this adds to the
jitters that he is probably experiencing right now. Flacco has had plenty of post season
experience for a QB of only 4 yrs; he has played in 7 (4-3)
How much will home
field come into play in this game?
Quite a bit, in my opinion.
Yates looked very shakey last weekend going 5 for 12 for only 62 yards
in the first half; 77 yards rushing in the first half helped stabilize what
should have been a rough 1st half for the Texans. That Ravens crowd will probably be as loud,
or louder this weekend, but they won’t quit down for the Texans on third down
this weekend. In addition, Suggs and
company are going to make Yate’s task much, much harder than the Bengals
could. The Noise is going to cause a few extra false
starts for the rookie QB, which will put him in more obvious passing downs than
what the Texans would prefer.
Can TJ Yates become
the 3rd QB to win multiple playoff games in his rookie season? I just don’t think so. I think this Baltimore Raven’s defense is
going to terrorize this kid. He has 1 TD and 2 INTs in his last 4 games,
and that just won’t do it vs this Ravens D.
They are going to shut down the run, and Yates is going to have to take
some shots down field to loosen them up for covering the passes into the
flat. Passing down field will be into
the territory of one of the NFLs best safties (Mr. Ed Reed), and that is going
to be a dangerous proposition for Yates to undertake.
What will be the strategies
for these two teams, and whose game plan will force the other to change?
Houston is going to try to pass on first downs—short passes
over the top, or into the flat. They
will attempt some early draw plays to offset the Ravens rabid pass rush. The Ravens are going to have Reed floating in
the secondary waiting for Yates to make a mistake, and the cover guys are going
to play up on the line to stop the screen passes. Yates is going to have to take a few shots
down field early to attempt to loosen up the box (run Defense), but I just don’t
see him having success in this endeavor.
Houston’s best chance in this game is to keep it close until the forth
quarter, and take advantage of the Ravens aging defense in hopes that fatigue
will cause some broken coverages, ect.
Baltimore is going to run, run, and then take a few shots
down field. Baltimore is aware that
Houston has given up an average of 4+ yards per carry vs good rushing teams,
and they will force Houston to bring everyone up to try and stop them. Once Houston starts playing the run, Harbaugh
will take shots down field. Their desire
is to get up a couple scores on Houston and force Yates to go into passing
mode, and that is where Baltimore will win the turnover battle (I see Baltimore
with a +2, or better, turnover margin in this game.
Summary:
It is a fairly easy play on Baltimore when you consider:
·
Yates has 2 Int’s to only 1 TD in his last 4
games
·
Houston has faced only 4 top 10 running teams
this season, and lost every one of those games
·
Yates has not faced the quality of defenses in
his career that Flacco has faced this season
·
This is the first home playoff game in Baltimore
in years, and they are going to be rabid
·
Flacco/Ravens have much more playoff experience,
and I think to an extent that Houston is happy right now because they went
further than any Texan team has, and Baltimore will consider anything less than
a superbowl ring as a failure
·
Texans lost the first game with Schaub at the
helm 14-29 (Schaub was 21-37 for 220… what can we even hope for Yates to turn
in?)
·
64% of the public is on Houston in this game,
yet the line opened at -7.5 in most houses, and is now at -8 in some, and
unchanged in others. Vegas is baiting
the Texans play…don’t take it.
·
Lastly… I am not a conspiracy theorist, but I am
rational enough to see how some calls seem to favor what is best for the NFL…
what better storyline is there than to have 2 Harbaughs as 2 of the last 4
standing with a potential rematch of the ‘Sibling Rivalry’?....hmmmm. The NFL will lose money (in ratings if a
Yates driven Texans team advances)… once more, I am NOT a person who thinks
that corruption effects very much at all in professional sports, but sometimes
those ticky tac calls seem to favor the NFL’s way of thinking it seems….lucky
for us all the other tangibles favor us anyway
Ravens -7.5 for 8.8 Units
Established in 1995,
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