Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
120 - 82 @ 59% for +29.8 Units
Wed, 03/23
#1: Philadelphia 76ers -6.5
Like I’ve mentioned in yesterday’s analysis of the Bulls/Hawks game, Atlanta is horrible against ‘quality’ opponents (by quality I mean teams above .500). They’re 5-12 ATS in their last 17 in such games. Philly, on the other hand, is 18-12 ATS against ‘quality’ competition, 21-12 ATS at home, and most importantly, they are 4-0 ATS against the Hawks in their last 4 meetings. I know this is Philly’s first game off a road-trip, but they had 3 days off to get acclimated and prepare for this one. In addition, it gave Iguodala and Brand time o get healthy and rest-up for this one. The fact that the Sixers are 1-2 against the Hawks this year should be enough motivation for this team to play really well tonight. They lost the first meeting in ATL by only 3 points, where Jason Kapono was the starter for them (go figure) and Hawks shot 51% to Sixers’ 41% from the field. They lost the 2nd meeting by 5 points, at home. And then last time out, the Sixers blew-out the Hawks by outshooting them 54% to 41% from the field, but even more importantly, outrebounding them 50 to 35. Hmmm. If you remember yesterday’s analysis, I’ve talked how important rebounding is in games involving Atlanta. Hortford didn’t play in that last meeting, and he’s listed as questionable tonight as well. I expect him to suit up, but even so I like this rested Sixers squad to out-work and out-rebound the ATLteam, which is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, and is coming off a demoralizing loss to the ‘BEST TEAM IN THE EAST’ (wow that feels good to say being a Bulls fan!). I know Philly has a game @ MIA in a few days, but as poorly as ATL has played against ‘quality’ opponents I believe that factor to be fairly insignificant here. Bottom line: I’m probably looking to ‘fade’ Atlanta against every “winning” team they’ll face through the end of this season. And it started last night!
#2: Memphis Grizzlies +6.5
The first meeting went to OT between these squads, with Celtics pulling out a 6 point win and a cover as -3.5 point road favorites. One thing though, that was back in November and early in the season. With ‘SA’ this line should be around -9.5, but in all honesty the Grizz were under-valued in the beginning of the season. Even so, I have this line at Boston -7 so the line is fairly accurate here. Bottom line is that Boston is coming off a HUGE come-from-behind victory on the road against the Knicks. Celts were down 14 points at the half, but went on to outscore New York by 24 points in the 2nd. They held New York to only 35 2nd half points. For a veteran club like Boston, this kind of defensive effort usually takes its toll in the following game. And what do you know, Boston is 5-19 ATS this season after a blow-out win. Let me repeat that: 5-19 ATS! That’s 21%. Now, after being on the road for 3 games, they’ll get to face one of the hottest ATS performers this season in the Grizzlies. Grizzlies are 22-14 ATS on the road this year, 14-5 ATS on the road against ‘quality’ opponents, and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 in this ‘dog’ spread-range. In addition, Memphis is 24-12 ATS in ‘revenge’ spots this year. The Celts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after a SU win and 6-10 ATS as a home favorite in this spread-range. I know the Celtics are fighting with the Bulls for the #1 seed, but I also love when a team like the Grizzlies is as focused as they are on clinching a playoff spot. In that first meeting Boston shot 58% from the field yet the game still went to OT. Grizzlies had 9 offensive rebounds in that one compared to only 3 for the Celtics. Memphis has been playing solid D lately, holding their opponents below their season average for PA. In addition, this team is #1 in TOV% on the defensive end. Well, Boston is only a measly 25th in that category on offense. I expect the Grizz to get their hands on the ball and win the TO battle, in addition to the rebounding battle, tonight. Add in the fact that Grizzlies are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 trips to Boston, and I’m really loving it (Sounds like a McDonald’s commercial).
#3: Oklahoma City Thunder -10
Harris and Favors are doubtful for this game, but even with them in the lineup, I don’t see Utah covering this DD spread tonight. First of all, they are coming into this one off a very demoralizing defeat to the Grizzlies. They’re now 3 games behind the Grizz, and from my perspective, their playoff chances are pretty much over. Now they get to play a ‘pissed’ off Thunder squad that lost a home game to the lowly Craptors and had 2 days to get ready for this one. Okie City is 8-4 ATS this season off a loss as a favorite. Thunder is playing excellent D right now, holding opponents to 85 ppg on 40% shooting in their last 5. In comparison, Utah isn’t playing any D whatsoever, allowing 108 ppg in the same time-frame. In addition, the Jazz are only 3-10 ATS against ‘quality’ opponents after an All-Star break and I just don’t see them putting forth much effort in tonight’s game. Okie City is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games, 5-1 ATS at home against losing squads, and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with Utah. I expect this to be a very comfortable DD victory for them.
120 - 82 @ 59% for +29.8 Units
Wed, 03/23
#1: Philadelphia 76ers -6.5
Like I’ve mentioned in yesterday’s analysis of the Bulls/Hawks game, Atlanta is horrible against ‘quality’ opponents (by quality I mean teams above .500). They’re 5-12 ATS in their last 17 in such games. Philly, on the other hand, is 18-12 ATS against ‘quality’ competition, 21-12 ATS at home, and most importantly, they are 4-0 ATS against the Hawks in their last 4 meetings. I know this is Philly’s first game off a road-trip, but they had 3 days off to get acclimated and prepare for this one. In addition, it gave Iguodala and Brand time o get healthy and rest-up for this one. The fact that the Sixers are 1-2 against the Hawks this year should be enough motivation for this team to play really well tonight. They lost the first meeting in ATL by only 3 points, where Jason Kapono was the starter for them (go figure) and Hawks shot 51% to Sixers’ 41% from the field. They lost the 2nd meeting by 5 points, at home. And then last time out, the Sixers blew-out the Hawks by outshooting them 54% to 41% from the field, but even more importantly, outrebounding them 50 to 35. Hmmm. If you remember yesterday’s analysis, I’ve talked how important rebounding is in games involving Atlanta. Hortford didn’t play in that last meeting, and he’s listed as questionable tonight as well. I expect him to suit up, but even so I like this rested Sixers squad to out-work and out-rebound the ATLteam, which is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, and is coming off a demoralizing loss to the ‘BEST TEAM IN THE EAST’ (wow that feels good to say being a Bulls fan!). I know Philly has a game @ MIA in a few days, but as poorly as ATL has played against ‘quality’ opponents I believe that factor to be fairly insignificant here. Bottom line: I’m probably looking to ‘fade’ Atlanta against every “winning” team they’ll face through the end of this season. And it started last night!
#2: Memphis Grizzlies +6.5
The first meeting went to OT between these squads, with Celtics pulling out a 6 point win and a cover as -3.5 point road favorites. One thing though, that was back in November and early in the season. With ‘SA’ this line should be around -9.5, but in all honesty the Grizz were under-valued in the beginning of the season. Even so, I have this line at Boston -7 so the line is fairly accurate here. Bottom line is that Boston is coming off a HUGE come-from-behind victory on the road against the Knicks. Celts were down 14 points at the half, but went on to outscore New York by 24 points in the 2nd. They held New York to only 35 2nd half points. For a veteran club like Boston, this kind of defensive effort usually takes its toll in the following game. And what do you know, Boston is 5-19 ATS this season after a blow-out win. Let me repeat that: 5-19 ATS! That’s 21%. Now, after being on the road for 3 games, they’ll get to face one of the hottest ATS performers this season in the Grizzlies. Grizzlies are 22-14 ATS on the road this year, 14-5 ATS on the road against ‘quality’ opponents, and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 in this ‘dog’ spread-range. In addition, Memphis is 24-12 ATS in ‘revenge’ spots this year. The Celts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after a SU win and 6-10 ATS as a home favorite in this spread-range. I know the Celtics are fighting with the Bulls for the #1 seed, but I also love when a team like the Grizzlies is as focused as they are on clinching a playoff spot. In that first meeting Boston shot 58% from the field yet the game still went to OT. Grizzlies had 9 offensive rebounds in that one compared to only 3 for the Celtics. Memphis has been playing solid D lately, holding their opponents below their season average for PA. In addition, this team is #1 in TOV% on the defensive end. Well, Boston is only a measly 25th in that category on offense. I expect the Grizz to get their hands on the ball and win the TO battle, in addition to the rebounding battle, tonight. Add in the fact that Grizzlies are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 trips to Boston, and I’m really loving it (Sounds like a McDonald’s commercial).
#3: Oklahoma City Thunder -10
Harris and Favors are doubtful for this game, but even with them in the lineup, I don’t see Utah covering this DD spread tonight. First of all, they are coming into this one off a very demoralizing defeat to the Grizzlies. They’re now 3 games behind the Grizz, and from my perspective, their playoff chances are pretty much over. Now they get to play a ‘pissed’ off Thunder squad that lost a home game to the lowly Craptors and had 2 days to get ready for this one. Okie City is 8-4 ATS this season off a loss as a favorite. Thunder is playing excellent D right now, holding opponents to 85 ppg on 40% shooting in their last 5. In comparison, Utah isn’t playing any D whatsoever, allowing 108 ppg in the same time-frame. In addition, the Jazz are only 3-10 ATS against ‘quality’ opponents after an All-Star break and I just don’t see them putting forth much effort in tonight’s game. Okie City is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games, 5-1 ATS at home against losing squads, and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with Utah. I expect this to be a very comfortable DD victory for them.
0
If they lose to the 6ers tonight, they are 2.5 games apart with 10/11 to play? How can't they move in the seeding? 
chicken 
!!!! love your picks brutha..... gl and let's enjoy and fist of your picks..
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