Here was my first try at handicapping a full race.

This was race 10 on Derby Day at Churchill Downs.

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Here is how I see it and tell me what I am reading wrong.

There's no correct way to handicap, everyone uses different factors in reaching their decisions.  The only question I would have is the fractions from other races that you used.  There could have been many things that could have affected those times.

You certainly are taking a logical approach and putting thought into it.  Nice job.  You may want to consider being careful with the raw times.  That is why they came up with speed figures.  Let's say they go the first half in 47.2 at Keeneland and 46.3 at Santa Anita.  Well that race at Keeneland may have been moving at a stronger pace than Santa Anita's race.  Maybe the "typical" split at Santa Anita on that day and recent days was 45.4.  Maybe a typical split at Keeneland was 48.4.  You understand I am making hypothetical examples.  The speed figures (Beyer and Equibase as examples) account for track variance and "how the track was playing" that day and on recent days.  On turf, you also have other factors such as the presence of a temp rail, inner and outer turf courses at BEL and SAR, and a variety of other issues.  The condition due to moisture.  Maybe they put a crapload of water on the course earlier that day.  At a course like GP they change the rail distance around all the time.  Plenty of variables!!!

there are also performance figures such as The Sheets and Thorograph along with Racing Post Ratings.  These capture speed but also take into account the trip, wind, and other things. 

That said try not to be trapped by a figure such as a Beyer fig.  You have to analyze them and interpret them.

I try to organize myself like this.  This is NOT "the answer" just something I try to use almost like a checklist:

Recency
Late Speed
Pattern
Speed/Pace/Stamina/Class/Distance/Surface
J/T Combo
Breeding (if applicable)

I rank them like that but it shuffles based on circumstances and the type of race being analyzed.

The best bet in horse racing:  sometimes the best bet is to simply pass on the race.  Took me a while to learn that one. 

Thank you for responding.  I enjoyed trying it.  It was fun and made the race much more enjoyable to watch.  I did not hit the trifecta I bet but I sure had fun.

I used the fractions of the last race that was the same distance.  I figured they may race differently for different lenghts of races. 

Please note when I emphasize Late Speed I only care about Late Speed at THIS distance being run today.  I could care less if a little sizzler can look like a beast at 5F.  if today's race is 7F he might be great fade material.  If they have never gone the distance (like the Kentucky Derby) then you have to project forward and try to determine how well they will be moving late.