US Midterm Election Betting Odds: Democrats' Downfall Shaping Up

U.S. election midterms take place today, and it doesn't look good for Joe Biden and the Democratic party. We break down the odds for each outcome to see what may take place come November 8.

Last Updated: Nov 8, 2022 9:51 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
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After months of speculation and forecasting the 2022 U.S. midterm elections are taking place today. Control of the U.S. Congress is at stake and the Republican Party could win in a landslide according to the latest odds available.

As of right now, odds are indicating we will see a Republican House and Senate, with bettors able to grab that particular wagering option at -250. That's a big change from late summer, when it was available at -162. On the other hand, you can get the Democratic Party to get both at +2,500.

U.S. election odds are always a hot topic with plenty on the line. Below we provide the odds for each outcome of the midterms taking place on Tuesday, November 8.

Odds for the 2022 US midterm elections

Action on the 2022 midterms is heating up as Americans head to the polls today. The Republican Party is favored to take the house and take more than 50 seats in the Senate.

Outcome Odds
Republican House & Republican Senate -250
Republican House & Democratic Senate +230
Democratic House & Republican Senate +1,100
Democratic House & Democratic Senate +2,500

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook Ontario on November 8, 2022.

Odds to win the U.S. House of Representatives

Result Odds
Republican Majority -1,600
Democrat Majority +800

Odds courtesy of William Hill on November 7, 2022.

Odds Analysis for the 2022 US midterm elections

With Joe Biden fumbling his presidency amidst a struggling economy and rising fears about crime, a red wave has been predicted for months with most expecting the Republican Party to take back control of the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time in four years.

That said, the Senate remains much closer with many political pundits considering it a coin-flip. 

In fact, FiveThirtyEight currently gives the GOP an 84% chance of winning the House but a more modest 59% chance of winning the Senate (a number that sat at 50% just a week ago). 

The GOP need a net gain of just one seat to give them control of the chamber and there are likely only a handful of competitive seats which will tilt the balance of power. Four of them (Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and New Hampshire) are held by the Dems, with one held by the Republicans (Pennsylvania).

Arizona and New Hampshire are strongly expected to stay blue but if the Dems lose Georgia or Nevada, they would need to swing Pennsylvania. 

That likely makes Georgia and Pennsylvania the biggest tipping points and right now the Republicans are expected to win both with bet365 installing them at -200 (66.7% win probability) to take back Georgia and -150 (60%) to retain Pennsylvania. 

However, oddsmakers might be a tad too optimistic about GOP candidate Herschel Walker's chances of winning Georgia with his opponent Raphael Warnock performing slightly better among registered voters and independents in a recent poll. Walker is a former NFL player and college football legend at UGA but he has faced plenty of criticism for his personal actions which are at odds with his politics.

Recent Republican gains on polarizing topics such as abortion and education might actually have ignited a push for the liberal side with record early voter turnout in several battlezone states including Georgia. 

If the Senate is as tight as analysts believe, then there might be value in backing a "Republican House & Democratic Senate" at +230. That bet has already seen movement since it was sitting at +300 less than 24 hours ago. 

Historical US midterm election results and seat changes 

Year President House Seats Senate Seats
1934 Franklin D. Roosevelt +9 +9
1938 Franklin D. Roosevelt -71 -6
1942 Franklin D. Roosevelt -55 -9
1946 Harry S. Truman -45 -12
1950 Harry S. Truman -29 -6
1954 Dwight D. Eisenhower -18 -1
1958 Dwight D. Eisenhower -48 13
1962 John F. Kennedy -4 +3
1966 Lyndon B. Johnson -47 -4
1970 Richard Nixon -12 +2
1974 Gerald Ford -48 -5
1978 Jimmy Carter -15 -3
1982 Ronald Reagan -26 +1
1986 Ronald Reagan -5 -8
1990 George Bush -8 -1
1994 Bill Clinton -52 -8
1998 Bill Clinton +5 0
2002 George W. Bush +8 +2
2006 George W. Bush -30 -6
2010 Barack Obama -63 -6
2014 Barack Obama -13 -9
2018 Donald Trump -41 +2

2024 US election betting odds over time

Legal election betting in the United States

No U.S. states have legal election betting, so regulated betting sites don't offer election odds to Americans. However, bettors in other countries bet on election odds.

Legal election betting in Ontario

Sports bettors are legally allowed to bet on the 2024 U.S. election at applicable sports books that offer odds for it.

US election betting odds FAQs

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