Coronavirus could damage Trump's 2020 U.S. presidential election odds

President Donald Trump has seen his odds to win the 2020 US presidential election fall to the lowest its been in months, following his government's response to the coronavirus crisis.

Trump is now a slim underdog to win the upcoming election at +105, a far cry from the -163 he was sitting at just three weeks ago. The Democratic party had been looking in complete disarray but the current pandemic has given their campaign a much-needed boost with critics attacking the president's decision making. And although the president just declared a state of emergency over COVID-19 the damage might already be done.

MISTAKES WERE MADE

When the U.S. confirmed its first case of coronavirus on January 21, Trump declared the situation "totally under control." Subsequent testing failures led to the spread of COVID-19 across the country despite members of Trump's team continuing to insist the disease was "contained"

While on the surface Trump said many of the right things and adopted a more somber tone at his Oval Office address on Wednesday, his previous remarks have been strewn with errors: within the last two few weeks he has downplayed the disease, claimed that a vaccine will be available soon (it won't), and stated that anyone who wants a test can get one (they can't).

On Friday, Trump shifted blame to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention while blaming former president Barack Obama for "changes that only complicated things further."

TERRIBLE THURSDAY FOR WALL STREET

Ultimately much of Trump's reputation has hinged on his success as a businessman and the thriving U.S. economy. But with Wall Street having it's worst trading day since the 1987 crash on Thursday, the markets have taken a big hit. Pausing the economy certainly isn't good for anyone not just sports fans, and Harvard Professor of Economics Kenneth Rogoff sees a U.S. recession as likely, even with the steps congress has taken to prop up the economy. 

While stocks began to claw upwards on Friday, a hurting economy will likely damage Trump's approval more than his myriad of scandals ever could, even if much of it is outside his control. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump's approval rating sits at 42.3 percent (as of 5 p.m ET on March 13). 

BIDEN GETTING A BOOST

Current Democrat front-runner Joe Biden has managed to see his odds to become president rise to -105 despite a campaign filled with his own gaffes and misteps. Two weeks ago, Biden was listed at +1,600, while the favorite to win the Democratic nomination Bernie Sanders was +275. While not generally a strong public speaker, Biden gave a speech last Wednesday that was in marked contrast to Trump's recent remarks. 

Biden outlined a detailed plan that involved both a public health response and an economic response. While Biden's plan will likely never be put into action since the earliest he can take office would be in 2021, it was still an effective display of leadership during a crisis.

TRUMP'S KATRINA? 

There are some in the media who feel that COVID-19 could be Trump's Hurricane Katrina. In August of 2005, Katrina hit the gulf coast in one of the worst natural disasters in American history. Incumbent President George W Bush was on vacation at the time and his slow reaction and initial weak federal response to the hurricane torpedoed his reputation. 

Following Bush's bungled response to Katrina his approval rating fell fell below 40 percent, the lowest of his presidency at that point. Despite later visiting the disaster area and eventually funneling billions of federal dollars towards relief and recovery, Bush never recovered from his initial mistakes, leaving office with an approval rating of 22 percent.  

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