After two weeks in Hawaii, the PGA Tour returns to the mainland for the West Coast swing — beginning with The American Express at PGA West and La Quinta Country Club in California.
A pretty strong field highlighted by Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, and Patrick Cantlay will play a rotation of La Quinta Country Club, PGA West's Stadium Course, and the Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course for the first three rounds ahead of a 54-hole cut, with the final round being played on the Stadium Course.
Check out our full American Express betting preview below, including outright odds, a breakdown of favorites, free golf picks, and more.
Live odds to win The American Express
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The American Express field and favorites
This week's field includes three of the OWGR Top 5 and 10 of the Top 20, with Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, and Patrick Cantlay the headliners in California.
Rahm (+650) is just two weeks removed from his win at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, where he came from way behind to outlast Collin Morikawa. The victory is his third in his last five worldwide starts and is part of a run of eight Top-10 finishes in his last nine starts overall. The guy is red-hot.
Scheffler (+1,000) is seemingly picking up where he left off last season, bringing a run of four straight Top 10s with him to the West Coast swing. Cantlay (+1,200) has been much quieter, with just two starts in the new season, a runner-up at the Shriners and T16 at the Sentry two weeks ago.
Going further down the board, names like Tony Finau (+1,400), Will Zalatoris (+2,200), Tom Kim (+2,500), and Si Woo Kim (+4,500) stand out. Kim is fresh off a one-shot victory at last week's Sony Open in Hawaii, marking the fourth victory of his career.
The American Express picks and predictions
Tony Finau over Xander Schauffele (-125 at Betway)
Eager for an opportunity to fade the banged-up Xander Schauffele in a matchup this week, I was met with very few choices as most books have kept him off of prop boards. Betway, however, was so brave to slate him against Tony Finau and we’re here to take advantage.
For those unaware, Xander has been dealing with a back injury. He said it started back at the Hero World in December, but it forced him to withdraw from the Sentry two weeks ago. He was just 2-under through 26 holes at the very gettable Kapalua and was among those at the bottom of the leaderboard.
Finau, meanwhile, might very well be in the best stretch of his career. He’s won three times since July — most recently the Houston Open in November — and enters the week rested after a T7 in Hawaii.
His strokes gained numbers are off the charts to start the season, ranking second overall with Top-12 marks in strokes gained off-the-tee (12th), on approach (12th), tee-to-green (ninth), and putting (seventh).
There’s a good argument to be made for picking Finau even against a healthy Schauffele. With Xander’s injury concerns heading into the week, this is a no-brainer.
Tom Hoge over Cameron Davis (-110 at DraftKings)
As a direct follow-up to last week’s handicap of Corey Connors (T12, 12-under) over Tom Hoge (T41, 8-under), I expect Hoge to get back in the saddle this week.
That T41 finish shouldn’t keep you from going back to him this week as it’s pretty clear Waialae continues to give him fits (that’s why I faded him). He missed the cut there a year ago but quickly bounced back with a runner-up finish here at PGA West. He’s also got a T6 to his name in 2020.
Last week notwithstanding, Hoge has five finishes of T13 or better this season, something Cam Davis has done just once (T13 at CJ Cup) since the middle of August. While the Aussie may have more career upside, it appears the great form he rode through much of the Summer is gone (T32 at Waialae last week).
Davis did finish third here in 2021 (didn’t play last year), but I’m still giving the edge to Hoge.
Thomas Detry to make the cut (-142 at FanDuel)
Another guy who's made his fair share of appearances in my picks this season is Thomas Detry, particularly through the run of Fall events.
I’m backing him to make the cut this week, albeit at juiced -142 odds. I’m comfortable laying that juice given his form this season and some longer-term career numbers.
He’s 5-for-5 on Tour this season with a runner-up and three other Top 15s. Going back further, he’s missed just three cuts between the PGA and DP World Tour dating back to the start of the 2021-22 Tour season (30 total starts) and is 10-for-10 on the PGA Tour during that stretch.
Looking to make a case for PGA Tour Rookie of the Year, he’ll continue to impress. At the very least, he’ll make the weekend once more.
