Stars vs Panthers Picks and Predictions: Florida Gets Revenge on Home Turf

Dallas topped Florida in a shootout last week, but its track record on the road has been far different from at home. Find out why we can't trust them to also win the rematch, as we're backing Bobrovsky with our Stars vs. Panthers picks.

Last Updated: Jan 14, 2022 10:48 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Sergei Bobrovsky Florida Panthers NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

There are only three games on the NHL betting board this Friday, beginning with a matchup in the Sunshine State between the Dallas Stars and Florida Panthers. Both of these teams have played very well since coming back from the Christmas break, but the Panthers will be looking for a bit of revenge after losing in Dallas last Thursday.

Oddsmakers expect them to get that with the Panthers coming in as significant -208 home favorites with the Over/Under at 6.5. Here are our best free Stars vs. Panthers NHL picks and predictions for Friday, January 14. 

Stars vs Panthers odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Panthers opened as -179 home favorites with the Over/Under at 6.5. Early money came in on Florida, shifting the line to -208 by 10 a.m. ET. When these teams previously played on Jan. 6 the Stars won 6-5 in a shootout as +118 home underdogs. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Stars vs Panthers predictions

Predictions made on 1/14/2022 at 10:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Stars vs Panthers game info

Location: FLA Live Arena, Sunrise, FL
Date: Friday, January 14, 2022
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Florida, Bally Sports Southwest

Stars vs Panthers betting preview

Injuries

Stars: Alexander Radulov RW (Out), Braden Holtby G (Out), Dennis Gurianov RW (Out).
Panthers: Mason Marchment LW (Out), Spencer Knight G (Out), Patric Hornqvist RW (Out), Jonas Johansson G (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Stars vs Panthers head-to-head record since 2021

Stars: 3-6, 26 goals for.
Panthers: 6-3, 28 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Stars are 8-20 in their last 28 road games, while the Panthers are 44-12 in their previous 56 games as a home favorite. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Panthers.

Stars vs Panthers picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

The Panthers are 6-1 in their last seven games and are coming off a 5-2 victory over the Canucks on Monday night. Their lone defeat during that span was a 6-5 shootout loss to the Stars last week. 

The Stars are fresh off a 5-2 win over the Kraken on Wednesday and are 5-1 in their last six games. That said, all of those victories came at home, which has been a season-long trend for them. They have sizzled at home going 14-3-1, but have floundered on the road, where they are just 4-10-1.

That's bad news against a Panthers squad that has gone 19-3 at home and has the best overall point percentage in the NHL at .736. Florida is enjoying a bounce-back year from goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, who is 17-3-3 with a 2.55 GAA and a .919 save percentage.

But the biggest reason for the Panthers' success is their brilliant offensive play, with three lines that can score and a pair of blueliners in Aaron Ekblad and Mackenzie Weegar who can move the puck up the ice. Florida leads the league in high-danger chances per 60 minutes in 5v5 play while ranking second in goals per 60 minutes (3.39).

The Stars are just 25th in the league in GF/60 in 5-on-5 hockey (2.15) with that number dropping to a league-worst 1.50 GF/60 in away contests. 

Despite playing in opposite conferences, these teams have faced off nine times within the last calendar year thanks to last season's rejigged divisions. Florida won six of those nine showdowns although four of the last six meetings went into overtime.

With Florida slotting 38 goals in their last seven games and Dallas struggling to generate offense on the road, we're backing the home side. That said, given Dallas' strong play on defense and how close many of the recent head-to-head games have been, we have a tough time backing the Panthers on the puck line or three-way moneyline. We're leaning towards the Panthers on the moneyline but looking elsewhere for betting value. 

Prediction: Panthers moneyline (-208)

The Panthers have scored a whopping 3.92 goals per game and have cashed the Over in seven straight contests. That said, we think that trend might be in line to get busted tonight.

We mentioned that the Stars can't score on the road, and that slump will likely continue tonight with Bobrovsky playing at a high level. The two-time Vezina Trophy winner came into town with massive expectations and after a couple of disappointing seasons, and boasts an impressive .927 SV% in 14 home games this year.

That said, the Stars have gotten strong play in nets as well, and while veteran Braden Holty entered the league's COVID protocols on Tuesday, 23-year-old Jake Oettinger has arguably been better. The 2017 first-round selection is 9-2 with a 2.20 GAA and a .923 SV% and has allowed two goals or fewer in eight of 11 starts. With the Stars going 5-13 O/U in their last 18 games overall, take the Under tonight. 

Prediction: Under 6.5 (-120)

With the Over/Under set at a high 6.5, it appears that oddsmakers might be emphasizing only one side of the equation when setting the total: Florida's high-scoring ways.

But when you consider how pathetic the Stars have been offensively on the road, especially in their last four away contests where they have totaled just three goals, that number looks a tad too high.

Add in the fact that the Stars actually perform better defensively in away contests (allowing a league-low 9.71 high danger chances per 60 minutes), along with Oettinger's strong play between the pipes, and the Under 6.5 looks like the best play. 

Pick: Under 6.5 (-120)

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