Two of the East Division’s hottest teams will meet Sunday for a matinee, as the first-place Washington Capitals welcome the New York Rangers.
The Rangers are 4-2 SU in their last six and lead the season series 3-1, outscoring the Caps 13-6 in the process. However, Washington has been unstoppable of late going 9-1 SU in its last 10.
Here are our free NHL betting picks and predictions for New York Rangers at Washington Capitals for Sunday, March 28 (12:00 p.m. ET).
New York Rangers at Washington Capitals betting preview
Injuries
Rangers: Brett Howden F (Out), Jack Johnson D (Out).
Capitals: Lars Eller F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Capitals are 7-1 SU in their last eight games against a team with a losing record. Find more NHL betting trends for Rangers vs. Capitals.
NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThe line opened at Capitals -1.5, with the total at 6. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!
Check out the full line movement for this gameMoneyline pick
This is as difficult as a schedule spot gets for the Rangers, who played a physical game Saturday in Philadelphia, a 2-1 loss, and now have to gear up for a noon start versus the division’s strongest team that is 12-4-2 at home this year.
Conversely, the Capitals have been at home since March 16 and have had a full day off after a 4-0 blanking of the New Jersey Devils on Friday. At the Capital One Arena, Washington has one of the league’s best power-plays, which powers a home offense that is scoring 3.33 goals per game in 2021.
The tired Rangers will also have to deal with the league’s hottest scorer in Alex Ovechkin. The Great Eight has nine goals in his last eight games and has scored in seven of those eight. The Rangers are unlikely to have goalie Igor Shesterkin to bail them out like Saturday, after the Flyers outplayed and created more chances than New York.
The Rangers should be starting goalie Alex Georgiev after Shesterkin started Saturday. Georgiev is 1-3 SU in his last four starts and was pulled in two of them. He beat the Capitals 10 days ago but had to stop only 16 of 18 shots to earn the victory. Georgiev’s numbers show a below-average goalie that is allowing nearly three goals a game with a .897 save percentage. Georgiev ranks dead last (minimum 10 starts) in high-danger save percentage at .709.
The Capitals have the advantage in net, as starting goalie Ilya Samsonov has looked impressive since returning from the league’s COVID list. The young No. 1 is 6-2 SU since returning and has allowed two or fewer goals in six of those eight starts. Samsonov is coming off a 24-save shutout of the Devils on Friday and is becoming one of the best young goalies in the league.
The Rangers have played some decent hockey of late (4-2 SU in their last six) but with back-to-back afternoon games on the road and a fierce opponent, Sunday might not be the best day to find some value in their big price tag. However, -135 for one of the league’s best home teams, is a steal.
PREDICTION: Washington ML (-135)
Over/Under pick
The Capitals are coming off a 4-0 shutout win, but don’t be hesitant in backing the Caps on the Over. The Devils have the league’s fourth-worst offense and managed just 2.12 expected goals. The Rangers are scoring the second-most goals this month at 3.79, while Washington has been league average defensively and allows nearly three goals per game.
The Caps are 1-4-1 O/U in their last five and this Under trend is bound to snap, as this isn’t a top-notch defensive team (10 high-danger chances against per game) and the offense is too good.
No team has scored more power-play goals at home this year than the Capitals. In Washington’s 18 home games this year, the power-play is 18 for 49 — good for a smooth 36.4 percent success rate. In their last meeting, the Caps went 0 for 4 with the man advantage and could see a couple of extra opportunities on Sunday against a tired and traveling Rangers squad.
Afternoon games can throw a wrench into teams’ game preparations and we always feel that this has the biggest effect on the defensive side of the game. If Washington gets up by a couple of goals early, they could really pour it on against a Rangers team that may just want to get back home for the rematch on Tuesday. The Rangers could also score three, which wouldn’t bother us Over 6 backers.
PREDICTION: Over 6 (-120)
Rangers vs Capitals betting card
- Washington ML (-135)
- Over 6 (-120)
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