Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Heiskanen Buries Avalanche

Prop bet #1: Low-danger shots

The Hurricanes continue to shoot the puck from everywhere on the ice as the club had a whopping 37 shots on net in the first 40 minutes of Game 3. The problem for Carolina was that they were also out-chanced. Why is that? The Canes love taking low-danger shots, and that means their SOG markets, as well as the Rangers’ blocked shot markets, are all targets for the Over.

I’ve been heavy on Seth Jarvis Over 2.5 SOG, but I think it’s time to get off that train, as the volume hasn’t been huge, and his shot-attempt-to-shot-on-goal ratio is very high. His price has also fallen from +160 to today’s +105. That’s a pass. 

Brent Burns odds for Over 2.5 at +130 are the ticket I want to ride, though, tonight. He’s hit two, four, and three shots in the series to date, had six shot attempts in Game 3, and leads all Carolina D-men in shot attempts/60 in the playoffs at 17.6. 

The Canes are down 3-0 in the series and are getting goalied by Igor Shesterkin. More shots are on the way, and Burns, at this price, is my favorite SOG market to hit as a single, with many of the other Carolina markets being adjusted. 

Brent Burns prop: Over 2.5 shots on goal (+130 at BET99)

Prop bet #2: Season on the line

I see no reason to get off the Igor Shesterkin Over saves wagon heading into tonight’s elimination game. 

The Rangers goalie has seen his saves total move from 29.5 to 30.5 since Thursday’s victory, but the netminder hit the Over on the 29.5 sometime in the second period on Thursday. The slight Igor Shesterkin odds move, and the 30 points are not a worry here. I’d rather the Over 31.5 at -115 but this could be another ladder opportunity, as Carolina is just going to throw everything at him today with their season on the line. 

The Canes are averaging 91 shot attempts per game this series, which is 21 more attempts per game than their regular-season average, which paced the league. Shesterkin is seeing a lot of low-danger shots; easy pickings for a goalie with a .935 save percentage in the playoffs and a .938 SV% in the series. 

Expect another game where Carolina dominates possession and shot-attempt differential, but Shesterkin stops 30+ and this game is decided by a single goal again. The overtime equity is real, too. 

Igor Shesterkin prop: Over 30.5 saves (-130 at BET99)

Prop bet #3: Big blueline minutes

There's a lot to like about offense in Game 3 tonight in Denver. Both offenses have been able to score at least three goals in each game, and the total of 6.5, -110 aside, is also a good indicator that Overs are a good way to approach this game. 

Val Nichuskin’s AGS prop has been neutered, and Jonathan Drouin might make a return, which muddies up the projected time on ice for the other Colorado forwards. 

On the Stars side, 25-minute defenseman Miro Heiskanen odds are a solid target for Over 2.5 shots, paying plus money at +110. 

He’s hit the Over in each game of the series and in four straight playoff games. He’s coming off a two-goal game and is getting massive minutes as the Stars are dressing six defensemen but only playing Nils Lundkvist five minutes a game. 

That’s creating a lot of opportunities for the offensive defenseman to drive the offense. He leads all Dallas skaters in SOG in the series and has a 17% shot share on all Dallas shots in the series.  

Miro Heiskanen prop: Over 2.5 shots on goal (+110 at BET99)