Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Kevin Fiala Tries to Pick Up the Pieces

Prop bet #1: Doozy for Bertuzzi

The status of Toronto Maple Leafs winger William Nylander (undisclosed) for Game 3 remains murky, so while there is a little risk in the unknown, there’s value in speculating it will be Tyler Bertuzzi playing on the No. 1 power-play unit if Nylander is out of action.

We can also expect Bertuzzi to line up alongside center Auston Matthews at 5-on-5, so the top PP gig would be a welcomed bonus. Bertuzzi and Matthews clicked with linemate Max Domi for a 58.6 Corsi For percentage and dominated the expected goals battle (70.3%) at 5-on-5 in Game 2, and they’ll also have the advantage of the last change on home ice.

In addition to these Tyler Bertuzzi odds failing to fully price in his go-to role, he also had a monster postseason last spring with 10 points through seven playoff games. Finally, the Bruins were also weaker at 5-on-5 on the road with a 48.5 expected goals percentage and 45.4 CF% on the highway compared to respective 51.8 and 48.7 marks on home ice.

Tyler Bertuzzi prop: Over 0.5 points (-110 at BET99)

Prop bet #2: Riding with Robertson

Dallas Stars winger Jason Robertson registered three shots on seven attempts in Game 1 and finished second in shots (57) and topped the team in attempts (124) across last year’s 19-game playoff run. Robertson also paced the team in both metrics during the regular season and has regularly traded at a 3.5-shot total over the past two years.

I’m also targeting these Jason Robertson odds because the Vegas Golden Knights don’t suppress opposing shots as well on the road, and they allowed 30 shots and lost the 5-on-5 possession battle (43.5 Corsi For percentage) in Game 1.

The Golden Knights also allowed 31.9 shots per road game with a 47.6 CF% at 5-on-5 on the highway during the regular season compared to respective 28.7 and 49.5 marks on home ice.

Jason Robertson prop: Over 2.5 shots (-135 at BET99)

Prop bet #3: Fiala fills the shots column

I’m anticipating a pushback from the Los Angeles Kings, and winger Kevin Fiala is another high-volume shooter who has often traded at a 3.5-shot total the past two seasons. Additionally, he’s racked up 19 shots and 34 attempts over the past five games, and Fiala posted a respectable 53.1 Corsi For percentage at even strength in Game 1 against the Edmonton Oilers.

It’s also unlikely Fiala spends more than a few of his 5-on-5 shifts opposite Edmonton superstar Connor McDavid. Finally, another reason I’m targeting these Kevin Fiala odds is because he finished third in both 5-on-5 and overall minutes among Los Angeles forwards and also is a go-to shooter with the man advantage.

Kevin Fiala prop: Over 2.5 shots (-105 at BET99)