The puck drops on Game 1 of a star-studded Western Conference Final between the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars tonight in Texas.
Let’s take a closer look at a few bets that pop off the page with my Oilers vs. Stars props and NHL picks for the opener of what should be an exciting, back-and-forth series.
Best Oilers vs Stars props
Marchment o1.5 SOG (-115)- Johnston o0.5 points (-130)
McDavid anytime goal (+155)
Oilers vs Stars player props for May 21
Mason Marchment Over 1.5 shots on goal (-115 at BET99)
Mason Marchment is a home ice merchant. He has posted a 64% hit rate on the season but his numbers are much, much, better when playing in Dallas. Marchment has managed a 79% hit rate on home ice while averaging 2.4 shots on 4.3 attempts.
His road numbers don’t hold a candle as he’s cleared 1.5 shots in only 49% of his games, averaging 1.8 shots on 3.6 attempts.
The good news for Marchment is he has home ice to start the series — and what should be a favorable head-to-head matchup to boot.
I am expecting the Marchment, Sam Steel, and Tyler Seguin trio to see plenty of the Edmonton Oilers' third line, featuring Evander Kane, Adam Henrique, and Connor Brown. That’s a battle that should lead to plenty of shooting opportunities for Marchment and the Stars.
The Kane/Henrique/Brown combination has posted a 35% expected goal share at 5-on-5 these playoffs while allowing shots on goal at a rate of well over 30 per 60 minutes.
Marchment’s line should spend plenty of time in the offensive zone, giving him a handful of looks to get a couple of shots on target.
Wyatt Johnston Over 0.5 points (-130 at BET99)
Dallas Stars head coach Pete DeBoer has shifted the lines around in advance of this series. One change he’s made is putting Matt Duchene down the middle of the ice with Wyatt Johnston and Jason Robertson on his flanks. That’s a trio that should be plenty dangerous.
Robertson is one of the most natural goal scorers in the league while Johnston has piled up the points whenever he’s played with Duchene. He averaged more than four points per 60 minutes of play with Duchene during the regular season. Remarkable production.
Johnston has great linemates to produce at even-strength and he remains a mainstay on a Stars power play that leads the entire playoffs in goals with 12.
The 22-year-old also owns a productive track record against the Oilers, hitting the scoresheet at least once in six of the last eight meetings, including both in March.
Connor McDavid anytime goal (+155 at BET99)
Connor McDavid has quietly taken matters more into his own hands during the playoffs. He averaged 2.9 shots on goal and 5.5 attempts in the regular season. Those numbers have soared in the postseason, with McDavid averaging 3.9 shots on 7.1 attempts.
Some overtimes have helped boost those numbers, of course, but McDavid has at least three shots on goal in nine of 11 games and is piling up the chances like few others.
McDavid ranks second in the playoffs with 50 scoring chances to date and his expected goal output sits at 6.82. That has only translated to three goals.
Call me crazy but I don’t think the best player in the world will continue to generate opportunities at will, yet convert on such a low percentage. Stiff competition or not, it’s a stretch to assume a career 15% shooter will continue to score on just 6.98% of his shots.
This is Edmonton’s stiffest test yet and I think it needs its captain to go hero mode to get back to the Finals. Expect McDavid to deliver.
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