The Toronto Maple Leafs are clinging to first place in the North Division as Saturday’s opponents, the Edmonton Oilers, look to catch them in the standings with a win in regulation.
After getting swept in the previous three-game series and being outscored 13-1, Edmonton will have plenty to play for during this two-game set in Ontario’s capital.
Oddsmakers have the Leafs as a heavy -165 home favorite with the total opening at 6.5.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs for Saturday, March 27 (7:00 p.m. EST).
Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs betting preview
Injuries
Oilers: Kailer Yamamoto F (questionable).
Maple Leafs: Frederik Andersen G (out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The road team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Maple Leafs.
NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonToronto landed on FanDuel's odds board as a -158 favorite Friday night, peaked at -174 and is at -168 as of 3:30 p.m. ET today. The Maple Leafs are attracting 69 percent of moneyline bets and 72 percent of moneyline dollars. The total opened at 6.5 (Under -114) and shifted a few cents to 6.5 (Over -112), although tickets and money are running 2/1 on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMoneyline pick
It was exactly a month ago that the Leafs walked into Edmonton and came out with six points, holding Connor McDavid and Co. to just a single goal across three games. Instead of rolling over, the Oilers instead won seven of their next nine games and have been the hottest team in the North Division this month.
The Maple Leafs, on the other hand, have seen their lead on top of the all-Canadian division dwindle as a combination of poor play and an inactive schedule have the Oilers just two points back for the top spot.
The Leafs had to eke out a 3-2 overtime win Thursday against the last-place Ottawa Senators and have played just one game since last Saturday. Over their last nine games, Toronto is a sad 3-6 SU, which is the league’s third-worst mark over that stretch.
The proverbial well of the Toronto offense has seemed to dry up of late, as the Buds are scoring just 2.56 goals per game since the beginning of the month. There was a lot of talk of Auston Matthews scoring 50 goals this year, but the Leafs’ leading scorer hasn’t found the net in five straight matches and has netted just three goals across his last 12. A nagging wrist injury may be the culprit, but the truth of the matter is that Toronto is not as good offensively as people seem to believe.
Speaking of struggling to score, the Leafs have been terrible prime-time scorers this year and have been held to two goals or fewer in four of their last six Saturday games. If you’ve only caught the Leafs on Saturday night, you must still be wondering how this team is in first place.
The Leafs will be without their No. 1 goalie in Frederik Andersen again on Saturday. Jack Campbell has played more than well for the Buds this year (5-0 SU, 1.18 GAA) but this is the first stretch that the Leafs have handed him the keys to the starting gig. His numbers are unsustainable and playing against one of the most lethal offenses in prime-time with the division lead on the line may be a great spot to fade the career backup.
The Oilers are in better form, and at +135, we’re taking the value in the dog.
PREDICTION: Edmonton ML (+135)
Over/Under pick
The Leafs are coming off back-to-back Unders. Campbell started both those matches and is 5-0 to the Under on the year. Toronto seems to play much tighter defensively in front of its No. 2. In Campbell’s five starts (small sample size, we know), the Leafs have surrendered a total of six goals.
The offense hasn’t done much for Campbell either this year, as the home team has given the goalie under three goals of regulation support this season. Even Toronto’s once-lethal power play has fallen dormant in March and is one for its last 20 chances. Only Buffalo has had a worse power play since the calendar hit March.
Both teams have had trouble scoring on their prime opportunities over the last 10 games. The Leafs and Oilers sit 25th and 26th, respectively, in high-danger shooting percentage this month, while Toronto’s shooting percentage of 12.02 on scoring chances ranks them 27th in the league.
The Oilers are likely to start Mike Smith on Saturday. The veteran goalie is in the middle of one of his best seasons in the NHL with an 11-3 SU record to go along with a sparkling 2.34 GAA and a .922 SV%. Smith is a big reason for the Oilers’ turnaround this season and the netminder has been playing out of his mind on the road in 2021. Over his seven road games, Smith is 6-1 SU with a 1.73 GAA to go along with a .943 SV %.
With Matthews mired in a scoring slump and the Leafs knowing how to shut down McDavid and Leon Draisaitl (one combined point last three matchups), we are hitting the Under in this lofty total of 6.5 in what should be a tightly checked game with so much on the line for both clubs.
PREDICTION: Under 6.5 (-115)
Oilers vs Maple Leafs betting card
- Edmonton ML (+135)
- Under 6.5 (-115)
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