Jets vs Penguins Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Hellebuyck's Absence Helps Fuel Over

To kick off Friday’s three-game slate, the Metropolitan Division’s Pittsburgh Penguins host the Central Division’s Winnipeg Jets. Now at the halfway mark of the season, both of these clubs look to hold onto their current playoff spots in what should be an entertaining game.

Will we see a high-scoring affair between two competent offenses, or can the goaltending step up? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Jets vs Penguins on Friday, January 13.

Jets vs Penguins best odds

Jets vs Penguins picks and predictions

Both of these clubs have been involved in many high-scoring contests recently, as there have been six or more total goals scored in each of Winnipeg’s last four games and in six of Pittsburgh’s last eight. These trends should continue in this matchup, especially considering that star goaltender Connor Hellebuyck will not be in net for the Jets.

Since Winnipeg is on the second half of a back-to-back and Hellebuyck played last night, we can expect backup netminder David Rittich to patrol the crease for the Jets. While Rittich has been solid this season when serving in relief, he’s nowhere near Hellebuyck’s pedigree.

Additionally, Rittich’s performance has started to dip recently as he possesses an .891 save percentage (SV%) and 3.56 goals against average (GAA) over his last two starts. This slide is likely to continue against Pittsburgh, a team he struggles against.

Over his three career appearances against the Penguins, Rittich possesses a .892 SV% and 3.45 GAA. Based on his underlying metrics, the second half of the season will likely not go as smoothly as the first.

If he qualified, Rittich would rank 23rd among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. The good news for Winnipeg’s backup netminder is that he should get plenty of goal support in this game.

At 5-on-5, the Jets rank in the top half of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). Meanwhile, Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom half of the league in xGA/60 at 5-on-5.

Backing up this defense is goaltender Casey DeSmith, who is projected to start between the pipes since normal starter Tristan Jarry is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury. Entering this matchup in poor form, DeSmith is just 1-3-1 over his last six games (he was pulled in his last start) with a .878 SV% and 3.94 GAA.

This slide is likely to continue against Winnipeg, a team against which DeSmith possesses a mere .857 SV% through two career starts. However, like Rittich, DeSmith should get plenty of goal support as the Penguins rank fifth in the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.

With two backup goaltenders slated to go against two strong offenses, six goals should not be too difficult to come by in this game.

My best bet: Over 6 (-134 at BarStool)

Jets vs Penguins moneyline analysis

I would lean towards the Penguins moneyline in this contest, but the juice is not worth the squeeze at -182. Both teams are due for positive regression offensively, as they each rank higher in xGF/60 at 5-on-5 than they do at GF/60.

In a game where more goals should be scored against two backup goaltenders, there’s too much variance to lay that much juice between two relatively even teams. The line is likely inflated so high because Hellebuyck has been critical to Winnipeg’s success through the first half of the season, but the Jets still have a winning record when Rittich starts.

In terms of pure value, the smarter play is to take the Jets at that inflated moneyline. However, since I think Pittsburgh should still win this game, I am staying away from taking a side.

Jets vs Penguins Over/Under analysis

These top-heavy offenses will likely have a field day against two backup goaltenders. Additionally, DeSmith will have his hands full behind a thin Pittsburgh blue line.

Defensemen Kris Letang (personal) and Jeff Petry (upper body) are both expected to miss this game —two key pieces of the Penguins’ defense. While guys like Marcus Pettersson have stepped up in their absence, the bottom of the defensive pairings have been problematic for Pittsburgh.

Meanwhile, Hellebuyck often stands on his head when guarding twine for the Jets, which means Rittich will be in for a tough night against the likes of Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, and Evgeni Malkin.

Jets vs Penguins betting trend to know

There have been six or more total goals scored in six of the Penguins’ last eight games. Find more NHL betting trends for Jets vs Penguins.

Jets vs Penguins game info

Jets vs Penguins key injuries

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