Hurricanes vs Lightning Picks and Predictions: Tampa's Special Teams Make the Difference

Two Eastern Conference heavyweights will do battle Tuesday night as the Carolina Hurricanes visit the Sunshine State and take on the Tampa Bay Lightning. Carolina (9-1 SU) is coming off its first loss of the season while the Lighting (6-5 SU) have taken nine of a possible 10 points in their last five games. 

In net will likely be Frederik Andersen and Andrei Vasilevskiy. Both netminders are in the early running for the Vezina Trophy, yet NHL betting lines opened Tampa at -125 on the ML and has since moved as high as -140 with a total opening at 5.5 but trending to the 6.

Here are our free picks and predictions for Hurricanes vs. Lightning for Tuesday, November 9.

Hurricanes vs Lightning odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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and view the full line movement for this game.

Hurricanes vs Lightning picks

• Lightning ML (-135)
• Over 5.5 (-120)

Picks made on 11/09/2021 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Hurricanes vs Lightning game info

• Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa Bay, FL
• Date: Tuesday, November 9, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: BSSUN, BSSO

Hurricanes vs Lightning betting preview

Injuries

Hurricanes: Antti Raanta G (Questionable), Brett Pesce D (Questionable), Nino Niederreiter F (Out).
Lightning: Mikhail Sergachev D (Out), Nikita Kucherov F (Out), Zach Bogosian D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Hurricanes vs Lightning head-to-head record (2021)

Hurricanes: 6-9 SU, 35 goals for.
Lightning: 9-6 SU, 40 goals for. 

Betting trend to know

The Hurricanes are 16-35 SU in the last 51 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Hurricanes vs. Lightning.

Hurricanes vs Lightning picks and predictions

Lightning ML (-135)

The Carolina Hurricanes came out of the gates hot to rip off nine straight wins to open the season — all in regulation. But upon closer review of the schedule, perhaps the Canes had a relatively easy run that included wins against Chicago (twice), Arizona, Columbus, and Montreal. They have beaten some decent teams — Toronto, Boston, Nashville, and New York Islanders — but those also were all at home. Rod Brind’Amour’s squad is looking to bounce back from its first loss — a 5-2 thumping by the Panthers.

The Lightning stumbled to start the year but have found their stride of late, going 4-0-1 in their last five while outscoring opponents 19-9 over that stretch. Tampa knocked out the Hurricanes in the Stanley Cup quarterfinals in five games this summer and has won 10 of the 13 previous meetings all within the calendar year. 

Tampa goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy posted a 2.15 goals-against average and a .936 save percentage in six regular-season games versus the Hurricanes last season and stopped 142 of 151 shots in the five-game playoff series for a .940 SV%. Conversely, Carolina goalie Frederik Andersen has struggled over his career versus the Lightning with a 5-11 SU mark and a .880 SV%.

All this recent success against the Canes doesn’t mean much if we don’t get a good price on the Bolts. Tampa opened at -125 and quickly moved to as high as -140 on the moneyline. Tampa has been favored at home versus Washington (-145), Florida (-120), and Colorado (-110). The Panthers and Avalanche games were earlier in the season but the Washington line was just last week. Tampa tonight at -130 to -135 is a bang-on price as Carolina closed at +120 at Florida in their last game and is sitting at +122 tonight.

With no real edge in price, we have to lean on the team with the better H2H success rate in the matchup as well as the better special teams, which is Tampa. The Tampa power play has awoken and is 3 for 11 over the last three games and could do some damage against the Canes’ penalty kill that just allowed the Panthers to score three times. The Canes are also the most penalized team in the league.

Fading a team coming off its first loss after a long winning streak is also a spot bet we can get behind. Andersen has struggled against the Lightning and the Bolts seem to be back on track. Carolina has a very big difference in actual goals differential/60 (+1.91) and expected goal differential/60 (+0.14) at 5-on-5 meaning regression won’t be in their favor. Carolina should be a popular bet just because of the price but the market is moving with home side.

Over 5.5 (-120)

Carolina comes into Tuesday’s game as the highest-scoring team at even strength at an incredible 3.41 goals per game at 5-on-5. This number won’t be maintained at such a high rate (2.73 expected goals for/60), but even the Hurricanes' expected goals for rate ranks in the top five. The Hurricanes have a league-best +1.91 5-on-5 goal differential/60 but with 1.5 goals against/60 compared to 2.59 expected goals against/60, the Canes have been lucky to keep so many pucks out of the net at even strength. Just at even strength, Carolina is expecting 5.32 total goals per game so far this season.

Special teams will also play a massive role on Tuesday. The Hurricanes take a league-leading 5.00 penalties per 60 minutes, which is great news for Steven Stamkos (five PP points this year) and a Tampa power play that has a Top-10 unit over the last two weeks. Four special-team goals were scored in Carolina’s most recent game versus the Panthers while 12 special-team goals have been scored over Tampa’s last 10.

Andersen has allowed seven goals in his last two games and owns a career GAA of 3.74 versus the Lightning. He's also had to play a ton recently and is coming off a lower-body injury that took plenty of games away from him last season. His workload will eventually catch up to him. Speaking of heavy usage, thanks to Tampa’s Cup victory last season, Vasilevskiy has had to play more hockey than any other goalie in the world since the beginning of Spring of this year. He’s been sharp over his last four games with just six goals against, but he had allowed 13 goals in his previous four games before that.

With special teams favoring the Over, and a market that is trending the same way, we’re hitting the Over 5.5 at -120 but would play the Over 6 up to -105.

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