The Vegas Golden Knights head home Monday to take on the St. Louis Blues after a 3-1 loss last night at the hands of the Kings—snapping their five-game winning streak.
Facing a team on the backend of a back-to-back, the fourth-place Blues are still in a tough spot to pick up some points as road teams are 3-12 SU in Vegas this season.
Oddsmakers have the Golden Knights as a -140 NHL betting favorite, with the total opening at 5.5.
Here are our free NHL picks and predictions for St. Louis Blues vs Vegas Golden Knights for Monday, March 22 (10:00 p.m. ET).
St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights betting preview
Injuries
Blues: Oskar Sundqvist F (Out), Zach Sanford F (Out), Colton Parayko D (out), Rob Thomas F (Out), Ivan Barbashev F (Out).
Golden Knights: Max Pacioretty F (Questionable), Alex Pietrangelo D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The favorite is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Blues vs. Golden Knights.
NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonVegas opened as -154 chalk Sunday night, poked up to -158 a couple of times overnight, then this morning dipped to -136, where the moneyline remains at 7 p.m. ET. Despite the dip down, the Golden Knights are drawing a solid majority of the action, at 78 percent of tickets and cash. The total opened at 6.5 (Under -130), that price stretched to -138 before the total dipped to 5.5 (Over -134), and the current price is Over -118. Still, the Over is landing 61 percent of bets and 67 percent of dollars.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMoneyline pick
Even with Sunday’s loss, the Golden Knights lead the league in points per game with 43 in 29 matches, but with division rivals Colorado playing so well of late, the Knights have no time to dwell on a poor game—and Monday’s quick turnaround offers the perfect solution.
Playing the Blues could be what the doctor ordered for Vegas after being held to a single goal last night. The Golden Knights haven’t had any problems scoring against St. Louis this year, amassing 14 goals in three games. In a pair of matchups just last week, Vegas walked away with two wins and scored five goals in each game, which included shelling both St. Louis goaltenders Jordan Binnington and Ville Husso.
That last part is important as the Blues have not announced a goalie as of Monday morning. Husso is beginning to get more starts of late but has only played the division’s weakest teams (minus Vegas). Binnington has struggled at times this year, giving up four or more goals in seven of his 22 starts with three of those coming against the Knights and Avalanche (four games).
Robin Lehner should get the start for the Knights with Marc-Andre Fleury playing last night. In his return after a six-week absence, Lehner stopped 23 of 25 shots in a 4-2 win on Friday. He looks to be past his concussion symptoms and owns a 4-1-1 record this season.
The Blues have seemed to get the proverbial cart back on the tracks as they ended a five-game losing skid and have ripped off back-to-back wins. Unfortunately for the Blues, they have to try to keep things rolling against one of the hottest teams in the league and the best at 5-on-5.
The Golden Knights are scoring nearly three 5-on-5 goals per game this month when the league average is just under two. This is a huge advantage for Vegas as the Blues are thin down the middle with injuries and Vegas can roll four lines with one of the league’s fastest forechecks.
Vegas has not lost consecutive games on home ice this year and we like that trend to continue on Monday. Getting the Knights at home for -135 is very uncommon and holds some value—even on the back-to-back.
PREDICTION: Vegas ML (-135)
Over/Under pick
Both teams have been profitable to the Over this year as the Blues and Knights are a combined 31-26 O/U on the season. The matchup is a perfect 3-0 O/U this year with a total of 23 goals being scored, and with only five of the 24 goals coming on the power play, we may not need penalties to hit the six-goal mark on Monday.
Even with what was a poor offensive showing in Sunday’s 3-1 loss, the Knights managed 3.11 expected goals – without star forward Max Pacioretty (questionable tonight with a lower-body injury) – and had managed three or more goals in five of their previous six games.
The Knights are averaging a robust 3.60 goals on home ice while the Blues are no slouch scoring on the road, with the league’s fourth-highest mark of 3.35 road goals per game. The Over is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings.
Vegas’ depth up front, and St. Louis’ injuries at center, create a great opportunity for the Vegas forecheck and rush to out-skill some fill-in centermen on St. Louis’ bottom two lines, creating more offensive chances in the process.
But even with some injuries, the Blues have recently gotten back two of their best offensive players in Vladimir Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz. The two wingers have taken back their spots on St. Louis’ top line and will look to support an offense that is scoring over three goals per game on the year.
With Vegas showing it can get pucks past both St. Louis goaltenders and Lehner giving up four goals in his only start against the Blues this year back in January, we aren’t afraid to hit the Over—even without the starters being announced.
PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (-120)
Blues vs Golden Knights betting card
- Vegas ML (-135)
- Over 5.5 (-120)
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