Week 7 brings a juicy slate of plus-money opportunities, and we’re zeroing in on three spots worth your attention.
A rookie quarterback is in a dream matchup to air it out in the red zone, the Comeback Player of the Year favorite is in line for a statement performance, and a rookie running back could rack up yardage against a soft front.
With value all over the board, it’s a perfect week to chase some upside in my NFL picks.
NFL Week 7 Predictions: Best plus money bets
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Cam Skattebo |
70+ rushing yards | +182 |
 Dillon Gabriel |
Over 1.5 passing TDs | +205 |
 Daniel Jones |
250+ passing yards | +190 |
Cam Skattebo 70+ rushing yards
New York Giants running back Cam Skattebo is set to face a tough Denver Broncos defense this week, but coming off a London game, this might be the best possible spot to attack them.
Jaxson Dart has done plenty of damage with his legs this season, but Denver has been excellent at limiting mobile quarterbacks — holding Daniel Jones, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Fields to just 36 combined rushing yards. That opens the door for Skattebo, as opposing RBs have found more success than QBs on the ground.
Jonathan Taylor ran for 165 yards in Week 2, Omarion Hampton had his best game of the season vs. Denver, Saquon Barkley picked up 30 yards on just six carries, and Chase Brown posted his best yardage total against this defense.
With Denver’s pass rush creating problems through the air, the ground game is the better path — and Skattebo, coming off a 98-yard effort against the Eagles, is set up well to take advantage.
Dillon Gabriel Over 1.5 passing TDs
This Over 1.5 passing TD prop is about as high as you’ll see priced, but the matchup is too good to ignore.
Dillon Gabriel threw two touchdowns in his overseas debut, but he came back to Earth last week against Pittsburgh, where the Steelers' pass rush gave the Cleveland Browns' rookie trouble.
That shouldn't be the case against the Miami Dolphins, who rank 25th in pressure rate and 31st in both EPA/play and EPA/dropback. Gabriel had 52 dropbacks last week, so the volume is clearly there — even if the efficiency wasn’t.
With Cleveland's defense likely creating short fields and Miami traveling out of the Florida sun, everything lines up for a bounce-back spot. It's a strong number in a soft matchup.
Daniel Jones 250+ passing yards
Daniel Jones has touched this number just once over his last four games, but three of those came against Jacoby Brissett, Geno Smith, and Cam Ward. Those are awful offenses that the Indianapolis Colts have faced.
Now facing the 4-2 Los Angeles Chargers, Jones will be asked to do more for 60 minutes.
THE BLITZ is projecting 240 passing yards for the slight ML dog. Jones' best game of the year came in a similar spot vs. a good defense in the Broncos in Week 2, where he threw for 316 yards.
The secret is out on Jonathan Taylor, and the Chargers are going to force Jones to beat them through the air.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
