AFC & NFC Conference Championship Odds & Lines: Chiefs Still Rising Ahead of Kickoff

Previous Bengals at Chiefs action

8:00 A.M. ET, SUNDAY JANUARY 29: The odds for the AFC Championship are on the move again. As of Sunday morning, we’re seeing the Chiefs climb to -2 at some offshore shops. The market consensus remains Kansas City -1.5 with some respected books hanging on to KC -1. Mainstream operators were reporting one-sided action on Cincinnati all week while pro betting groups grabbed the Chiefs as 2.5-point home pups Tuesday. With Patrick Mahomes playing and TE Travis Kelce expected to play through a back injury, gameday action could continue to show on Kansas City. As for the total, it’s sitting between 47.5 to 48 points.
3:45 P.M. ET, SATURDAY JANUARY 28: As we close in on kickoff for the AFC Championship, the market consensus is Kansas City -1.5 after the Chiefs were as large as 2.5-point home underdogs earlier in the week. Since then, professional betting groups took KC +2.5, and Patrick Mahomes returned to practice all week. While Mahomes is good to go, his favorite target Travis Kelce showed up on the injury report and is listed as questionable with a back injury suffered at the end of practice Friday. Bookmakers are heavy on Bengals money heading into the weekend, with DraftKings reporting 73% of the ticket count and 76% of the money on Cincinnati. As for the Over/Under, this number has climbed back up after dropping to 46.5 earlier in the week. As of Saturday, the total is available from 47.5 to 48.5. BetMGM books have taken 69% of bets on the Over, while 58% of the handle is on a higher-scoring finish in the AFC Championship Game.
1:17 P.M. ET, FRIDAY JANUARY 27: Chiefs -1.5 is definitely the market consensus as of Friday afternoon, with a couple of key books bracketing that numbers at -1 and -2, but all juice is pointing to that -1.5 number. Fresh reporting from DraftKings is showing 74% of the bets and 76% of the money wagered on the visiting Bengals, but Chiefs money is expected to roll in over the weekend. The total is a mix of 47.5 and 48.
2:15 P.M. ET, THURSDAY JANUARY 26: With Patrick Mahomes practicing, this market has swung back toward Kansas City after the Chiefs were as big as +2.5 underdogs in the AFC Championship Game. There were a few operators clinging to Cincinnati -1 this morning but the market consensus is now Kansas City -1 with some operators going as high as -1.5. Mainstream books are still reporting one-sided ticket count and handle on the Bengals, but bigger betting groups sided with the Chiefs at +2.5 on Tuesday night and I do expect more public play to come in on Kansas City closer to the weekend the more we see Mahomes’ mobility improve. As for the Over/Under, this total is inching up to 48 points with the market consensus an expensive Over 47.5 as of Thursday afternoon. DraftKings is reporting 70% of ticket count and 63% of handle on the Over in the AFC title game.
3:30 P.M. ET, WEDNESDAY JANUARY 25: After pro betting groups grabbed the points with Kansas City +2.5 on Tuesday night, it drove the line for the AFC Championship down to Bengals -1.5. Then, surprisingly, Kansas City announced that injured QB Patrick Mahomes tested his high ankle sprain in walkthrough and would practice on Wednesday afternoon. This news dragged most shops to Cincinnati -1 and a handful of operators like 888Sport and BetWay jumped the fence with the Chiefs adjusted to -0.5 and even -1.5. According to mainstream books, the bulk of early action and handle is banking on the Bengals but we know respected groups have taken a stand with the Chiefs +2.5 and more public play will likely come in on Kansas City now that Mahomes is practicing and looking very positive for Sunday’s AFC title game. The Mahomes news also prompted play on the Over, which boosted this total from 46.5 points to as high as 47.5 by Wednesday afternoon.
9:45 A.M. ET, WEDNESDAY JANUARY 25: The market was trending high on the Bengals, with Cincinnati -2.5 as the market consensus. However, some sharper sportsbooks were clinging to shorter spreads for the AFC Championship Game before respected betting groups grabbed the additional points with the Chiefs +2.5 at home on Wednesday evening. That influence has dropped the consensus to Cincinnati -1.5 with a number of books dealing Bengals -1. According to DraftKings sportsbooks, which has followed those market moves, they’re still heavy on Cincy action with 77% of bets and 85% of handle on the road team. All eyes are on the right ankle of Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes and if he will practice at all this week after suffering a high ankle sprain in the AFC Divisional Round. The sharper opinion on KC +2.5 could give a window into his health, with bigger betting groups banking on Mahomes to be mobile enough. The total after moved up on that Chiefs action, jumping from 46.5 points up to 47.5 and sharper sportsbooks, however, there are some 47-point numbers still available. DraftKings is reporting 69% of bets and 54% of handle on the Over in the AFC Championship Game.
11:00 A.M. ET, TUESDAY, JANUARY 24: After opening Kansas City as a slim home favorite, this spread has since jumped the fence and has Cincinnati as big as a 2.5-point road favorite in Arrowhead for the AFC Championship Game. Of course, the health and mobility of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is the big influence on this market, as Mahomes plans to play through a high ankle sprain Sunday. This spread ranges from Bengals -1 at some respected online operators to as high as -2.5 at some sharper Las Vegas books. DraftKings, which sits at Cincinnati -2, is reporting 77% of bet count and 87% of money on the road team. This total is down to 46.5 points at a number of books, below the key O/U stance of 47. The Under has drawn just 32% of the ticket count but the handle on the total is more balanced with 47% of money taking the Under.
3:26 P.M. ET, MONDAY JANUARY 23: The pointspread for Sunday's AFC Championship Game is all over the place as of Monday afternoon. Depending on your book and your preference, you will be able to find Chiefs -1.5, Chiefs -1, Chiefs -0.5, pick'em, and a few respected shops have now made the move to Bengals -1. Bettors are pounding Cincinnati with Covers Consensus data showing 70% of the spread wagers on the road team. The total is at 46.5/47.
6:30 P.M. ET, SUNDAY JANUARY 22: Kansas City hit the board as high as -3 at FanDuel books in the moments following the Bengals’ big win in Buffalo Sunday night. Other operators followed with shorter spreads, as low as Chiefs -1, and the market adjusted to -2. Early play continued to come in on Cincinnati and books are dealing the AFC Championship Game as low as a pick’em. Not only is Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury influencing that action (he’s planning to play on Sunday) but the Bengals have gotten the best of K.C. in three straight meetings, including an overtime win at Arrowhead Stadium in last year’s AFC title game. This total opened as high as 51.5 points at FanDuel, but other books hung a number as low as 48. We’ve seen this sink to as low as 47 points at some offshore books in the minutes after opening.