It’s South Carolina vs. Missouri in the SEC opener for the Tigers.
Missouri will be looking to move up in the polls, stake a realistic college football playoff claim, and remain undefeated. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks will be looking to rebound from a rough loss over the weekend.
Check out my early South Carolina vs. Missouri predictions and college football picks for September 20, where I see the Tigers triumphing.
South Carolina vs Missouri predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early South Carolina vs Missouri spread pick: Missouri -13.5
I don’t see a huge edge on this spread, as my fair line of Missouri Tigers -14 aligns almost exactly with the market. That said, if I lean one way, it’s toward Missouri — they’ve simply been more consistent.
The competition note matters, as Missouri has only faced one Power Four opponent, Kansas, against whom they grabbed a double-digit win. Still, even competition-adjusted metrics are impressive.
Missouri ranks Top 20 in EPA per pass, per rush, and per pass allowed, painting a clear picture of what to expect.
The Tigers should score at will, led by QB Beau Pribula, one of the nation’s most efficient passers. He’s in full command of an offense that just watched Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia complete over 70% against this South Carolina Gamecocks defense.
South Carolina’s best chance comes on the ground versus a leaky Missouri rush defense, but two big caveats loom.
QB LaNorris Sellers carries much of that rushing load and is questionable after leaving last week’s game with a head injury. And even if the run game works early, South Carolina can’t stop this Missouri offense. When they've fallen behind, their passing game hasn’t proven productive.
I lean towards Missouri because of the multiple paths they have to winning and ultimately covering.
Early South Carolina vs Missouri total pick: Under 45.5
Another spot where my fair number is close to the market, but I like the Under here.
The uncertainty around Sellers (whether he plays and how effective he’ll be) likely keeps this line about a point lower than it otherwise would be. Even so, the tempo of this game points firmly toward the Under.
South Carolina’s offense has looked limited for much of the season. Because of that, they’ll want to control the clock, run the ball, and keep Missouri’s offense off the field. That approach not only fits their offensive identity, but also targets a weakness in Missouri’s defense: stopping the run.
On the other side, I’ve praised Missouri’s offense above, and that still stands. However, I expect them to shift conservative if they build a multi-score lead. That would be consistent with Eli Drinkwitz’s history at Missouri — over 60% of his double-digit covers have gone Under the total.
So while Missouri should find offensive success, the combination of South Carolina’s ball-control style, Missouri’s willingness to slow things down with a lead, and overall game flow leans heavily toward the Under.
South Carolina vs Missouri odds
- South Carolina vs. Missouri spread: Missouri -13.5
- South Carolina vs. Missouri moneyline: South Carolina +400, Missouri -550
- South Carolina vs. Missouri Over/Under: 45.5
How to watch South Carolina vs Missouri
- South Carolina vs. Missouri matchup
- Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 7:00 p.m. ET
- City: Columbia, MO
- Venue: Memorial Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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