The calendar flips to Week 11, and it’s time to review the college football player prop market to find three best bets.
Will Penn State running back Kaytron Allen keep producing? What will Georgia running back Chauncey Bowens and Boston College receiver Lewis Bond do in favorable matchups?
Find the answers to those questions with my three favorite player props and college football picks for the afternoon games on Saturday, November 8.
Best college football player props for Week 11
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Kaytron Allen |
Under 68.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Chauncey Bowens |
Over 43.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Lewis Bond |
Over 62.5 receiving yards | -114 |
Prop bet #1: Kaytron Allen Under 68.5 rushing yards
The main storyline of this Penn State Nittany Lions offense since the James Franklin ousting is that running back Kaytron Allen has been fed as many carries as possible. The bruising back has seen an increase in snap share, to the demise of backfield sidekick Nick Singleton.
Allen has handled a whopping 49 carries over his last two games and has responded with 221 rushing yards. He’s scored a touchdown in every game this season. It’s understandable why the prop markets are bullish on his chances heading into Week 11, but I look at it the other way — it’s time to sell high.
This Penn State offense stinks, and backup quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer looks to be in over his skis. The redshirt freshman quarterback has zero touchdowns and three interceptions in his first two starts, and things don’t get any easier this week against the mighty No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers.
Curt Cignetti’s squad limits opponents to 10.8 ppg and excels up front, ranking Top 2 in stuff rate, front seven havoc, and power success rate. This dominance from the front seven allows Indiana to shut down opposing rushing attacks. The Hoosiers rank third in rushing success rate allowed and hold teams to just 80 rushing yards per game on 3.1 yards per carry.
To say this is a difficult matchup would be a massive understatement. Penn State’s offense will struggle to get much of anything going. Allen did have 76 yards against a tough Ohio State defense last week, but he totaled just 50 yards on his final 20 carries after busting a 26-yarder to begin his day.
- Matchup: Indiana vs. Penn State
- Date/Time: Saturday, November 8 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Beaver Stadium
- TV: FOX
Prop bet #2: Chauncey Bowens Over 43.5 rushing yards
The No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs have achieved a 7-1 record in part by running the ball effectively on offense (184 yards per game) while keeping opponents from doing the same on defense (94.1 yards per game allowed).
Kirby Smart’s squad will look to carry over that game plan for a Week 11 road game in Starkville against a Mississippi State Bulldogs team getting outrushed by 4.4 yards per game.
Redshirt freshman Chauncey Bowens has been Georgia’s most effective running back, leading the team in rushing yards with 446. Although Nate Frazier has received 10 more carries, Bowens is averaging 5.6 yards per carry compared to Frazier’s modest 4.4.
Mississippi State gets pushed around up front (124th in stuff rate, 132nd in line yards) and surrendered 239 rushing yards to Arkansas just last week. The Bulldogs rank 122nd in rushing success rate allowed, so this will be a significant mismatch.
Bowens has rushed for 60+ yards in four of his last five games, and his rushing yardage prop of 43.5 for Week 11 is simply too low.
- Matchup: Georgia vs. Mississippi State
- Date/Time: Saturday, November 8 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Davis Wade Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Prop bet #3: Lewis Bond Over 62.5 receiving yards
The SMU Mustangs have been repeatedly torched through the air, surrendering 300.2 passing yards per game while ranking 83rd in passing success rate allowed. This has been a “play-against” secondary all year, so I’m resorting to a tried and true formula this Saturday.
The Mustangs have allowed at least 215 passing yards in every game this season, and they’ve allowed at least 270 yards in seven of their eight games against FBS opponents. Next up is a matchup against the Boston College Eagles, who've tended to keep the ball in the air (seventh in pass rate at 59.3%).
Lewis Bond has been far and away the go-to receiver, leading the team in targets (81) and yards (622). The senior has been a consistent presence, posting at least 70 receiving yards in six of his nine contests.
Here’s betting on Bond to capitalize on a favorable matchup in Week 11.
- Matchup: SMU vs. Boston College
- Date/Time: Saturday, November 8 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Alumni Stadium
- TV: ACC Network
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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