Touching Howard’s Rock at Clemson, Ralphie’s Run in Colorado, the White Out at Penn State, and the Best Damn Band in the Land at Ohio State. These are just some of the traditions that make college football so great.
But at Covers, we have our own college football tradition. Specifically, Andrew Caley’s Triple Option betting column, where he brings you his favorite NCAA football plays each and every week throughout the season.
He opens 2022 by looking at a Pac-12 team looking to take the next step in its development. Is there another Cincinnati this season? And is reigning national champion Georgia getting a little too much respect against Oregon? Here are his best college football picks and predictions for Week 1.
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College football picks and predictions for Week 1
UCLA -23.5 (-110)
There is finally some reason for optimism at UCLA following an 8-4 breakout season that included a crushing victory over rival USC. Now, the question is whether Chip Kelly can build on that momentum and make a real run Pac-12 South Division title.
Well, Kelly got a big boost to making that goal a realistic possibility when quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson decided to return for his fifth season. Thompson-Robinson has shown improvement each year in Kelly’s offense and ended last season throwing for 2,409 yards with 21 touchdowns with just six interceptions with a solid 62.2% completion rate. Throw in his 609 yards and nine scores on the ground and DTR has become one of the best dual-threat QBs in the country.
Also returning is stud running back Zach Charbonnet. The former Michigan transfer rushed for 1,137 yards on 5.6 yards per carry and scored 13 times on the ground last season. He’s also a threat through the air, catching 24 balls.
The Bruins do need to replace some pieces on the offensive line but they’ll get a chance to build some chemistry in this matchup against Bowling Green.
The Falcons went 4-8 last season and 2-6 in the MAC but could be a dark-horse contender in the conference as they return 17 starters. Also, a quick look at the numbers and Bowling Green had a great pass defense. But that is misleading because teams ran all over the Falcons last year.
Bowling Green ranked 106th nationally, allowing FBS teams to rumble for 198.3 yards per game. And one thing I love when betting big college football spreads is finding teams that are run-first offenses facing poor run defenses. It’s not like they are going to stop running the football.
UCLA’s defensive front should do enough to limit a Bowling Green offense that averaged just 21.4 points per game a season ago and the Bruins will lean on the Falcons with their run game in the second half, wear them out, and pull away to cover this number.
Houston -4 (-110)
If you know me, you know I love a great Group of Five team and the Houston Cougars have a shot to be the best of the bunch this season.
That’s mainly because the Cougars have one of the best quarterback-wide receiver duos in the country in Clayton Tune and Nathaniel Dell. Tune had a breakout campaign last season, throwing for 3,546 yards with 30 touchdowns with 1,329 of those yards and 12 of those touchdowns went to Dell. On top of that, the running back room is deep and the offensive line should be solid.
The Cougars open the season against a UTSA team that is a contender to win C-USA this season. They have a veteran offense led by quarterback Frank Harris and have some solid defenders as well. But their biggest flaw plays right into the hands of Houston’s strength — its pass defense.
The Roadrunners ranked 116th nationally last season, surrendering 275.3 passing yards per game while ranking 112th in opponent yards per pass attempt.
UTSA might put up a fight for a while, but Houston’s fabled defensive front “Sack Avenue” and secondary will hold up better over the course of the game. Meanwhile, Tune & Co. will take advantage of their mismatch with the porous Roadrunners secondary and hit more big plays in the passing game.
This Houston team has a chance at a New Year’s Six bowl game this season. I expect them to get off to a strong start and win by at least a touchdown.
Oregon +17 (-110)
One of the biggest games on the Week 1 college football schedule sees the defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs take on the Oregon Ducks in a not-so-neutral-site game in Atlanta.
Georgia is coming off a historic season, winning its first national title since 1984 while getting that Nick Saban monkey off its back all at once. But the question for Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs is, do they have any chance of repeating?
While quarterback Stetson Bennett returns the Bulldogs have to deal with the departure of a record 15 players to the NFL Draft, mostly from one of the all-time great defenses. Don't get me wrong, Georgia will still have an elite defensive unit. But there is no way you lose all of that talent to the NFL and not take a step back.
That defense will face a familiar foe in former Auburn quarterback Bo Nix, who takes over the Ducks offense this season. And say what you will about Nix, but he is not going to fear this Georgia defense and should limit big mistakes.
Nix also has the perfect new head coach to prepare him for this matchup in former Bulldogs defensive coordinator Dan Lanning. Lanning took over the Oregon job literally the second the national championship ended and if anyone can draw up a scheme to attack the defense he built, it’s him.
On top of that, if there is a non-SEC team that can match Georgia's physicality in the trenches, it's Oregon. We saw that last year in the Ducks' win over Ohio State. They return all five starters to the offensive line and even though Kayvon Thibodeaux is gone, the defensive front seven will still be a strength for Oregon, led by one of the best linebackers in the country in Noah Sewell.
Georgia should win this game but Oregon matches up better than most people would think, making this spread too large.
Week 1 odds overview
Alabama -42.5 vs. Utah State
It pains me not to take Alabama ATS in Week 1 in the Triple Option. It has been a tradition since this column has been introduced. As I’ve noted for years, no one gets his team better prepared to start a season than Nick Saban. The Crimson Tide are 12-2 ATS in their season-opening games in the Saban era.
So, why didn’t we bet them this year? I blame Utah State. The line was 37.5 before the Aggies struggled with lowly UConn in Week 0. Then the line jumped to more than six touchdowns. Six! That said, Bama has also been a noted great first-half bet the last several seasons and the -26.5 will make my card this week.
Nevada (-0.5) vs Texas State
Talk about an uninspiring performance. Before Saturday’s Week 0 game against New Mexico State, Nevada was an 8-point favorite for its Week 1 matchup against Texas State. Then, despite winning, the Wolf Pack put on a stinker against the Aggies, struggling to put them away and only scoring 23 points. As a result, bettors have hammered the Bobcats, moving the line all the way to Nevada -0.5. It’s the most significant line move of the week by far.
Illinois (+3) at Indiana
Um. The wrong team might be favored in this matchup. The Illini are coming off a dominant win over Wyoming in Week 0. Meanwhile, Indiana is coming off a 2-10 season and its quarterback situation is uninspiring. Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak comes in to replace former starter Michael Penix Jr., who moved on to Washington. That’s not an improvement. Mix in a roster lacking in difference-making skill position players and Illinois looks like the better team heading into this matchup.
