Oregon vs Oregon State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Beavers Push Ducks to the Brink

The Oregon Ducks and Oregon State Beavers will meet for the 126th time Saturday, with the Ducks looking to secure a spot in the Pac-12 title game with a victory.

OSU would like nothing more than to play spoiler and hand Oregon its third loss of the year to its rivals, but can they pull of the upset?

Keep reading our college football picks and predictions for Oregon vs. Oregon State below to find out. 

Oregon vs Oregon State best odds

Oregon vs Oregon State picks and predictions

The biggest concern for both Oregon and total bettors is the status of quarterback Bo Nix’s ankle. The Auburn transfer injured it two weeks ago in the Washington loss. 

Nix played last week against Utah but was under a no-run order from head coach Dan Lanning. That’s a big part of the Ducks’ offense as Nix is a legitimate two-way threat. Against Utah, he finished with 287 yards with one touchdown and one pick on 25-for-37 passing. 

Being a pocket passer is going to put more pressure on Nix. In addition to his injury concern, starting center Alex Forsyth has a shoulder injury and missed the Utah game, Guard Jackson Powers-Johnson left the game after a leg injury, and wide receiver Chase Cota has also missed the last three games. 

Fortunately, Oregon State’s pass defense is on par with Utah so Nix should be able to move the ball effectively through the air. The Beavers are 59th in pass defense, allowing an average of 219.3 yards per game. 

As far as Nix’s ankle is concerned, he reassured reporters this week that it was much better than last week. 

"It's doing well,” Nix said of the ankle. “A lot better this Tuesday than it was last Tuesday," he said. "Our training staff is doing a great job, and we're just monitoring it. We should be good to go."

The same cannot be said for OSU quarterback Chance Nolan. He has been sidelined for the last six games with a neck injury. Coach Jonathan Smith said this week that back Ben Gulbranson would be the starter. 

The freshman has led the Beavers to a 5-1 record in the games he has started and has thrown for eight TDs and three INTs over that span. 

Oregon’s pass defense has been atrocious, ranked 122nd out of 131 teams, giving up an average of 278.8 yards per game. 

That is where OSU must take advantage of the Ducks in this game. If Gulbranson can limit his mistakes, the Beavers will secure the upset at home. It’s a big ask of the first-year QB, but I think he's capable of pulling it off. 

My best bet: Oregon State +3.5 (-118 at FanDuel)

Oregon vs Oregon State spread analysis

While college football odds have this line at Oregon -3, FanDuel is at 3.5 for the game. Even though it's juiced to -118, the hook makes that well worth your while. 

These are two teams that have done well against the spread this season. Oregon is 6-1 ATS in their last seven Pac-12 games and 8-3 overall this season.

The Beavers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games and 5-1 in their last six against a team with a winning record. OSU is 8-2 ATS this season. 

This game is going to come down to whoever has the better day passing the ball. Oregon is 18th in the country in passing offense, gaining an average of 288.3 yards per game. 

The Beavers are 94th in passing offense. The one advantage they do have is that Oregon’s passing defense is so bad. The Ducks did, however, have a strong game against Utah last week. They held Utes QB Cameron Rising to 170 yards with no touchdowns and got three interceptions. 

This game will come down to a field goal and whether it is Oregon or Oregon State that gets it, my bet will pay off. 

Oregon vs Oregon State Over/Under analysis

This line hit the board at 56.5 but has risen to 58.5 at most books with the news that Nix should suit up. This game should provide plenty of offense, especially if both teams are going to be heavy on the pass. 

The Ducks have gone Over in six of their last 10 games. They do have a streak currently, however, of hitting the Under in their last three. 

Still, they are third in the country in total offense, averaging 511.2 yards per game. Oregon State is ranked 25th in total defense, limiting teams to an average of 330.6 yards per game. 

Oregon State is 57th in total offense, averaging 406.1 yards per game. Oregon is 82st in total defense, averaging 391.4 yards per game. 

The Over should hit based on the team’s points per game average. Oregon is fourth in the country, averaging 40.2 points per game. Oregon State is 41st in ppg, averaging 31.9. 

The scoring defense favors Oregon State. The Beavers are 27th, averaging 20.3 points per game allowed. Oregon is 68th, yielding an average of 26.5 points per game allowed. 

This game should go Over as I believe both teams will be able to effectively move the ball down the field. 

Oregon vs Oregon State betting trend to know

The road team is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon vs. Oregon State.

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