Oklahoma State vs Wisconsin Prediction: Guaranteed Rate Bowl Odds and Picks

This season’s Guaranteed Rate Bowl between Wisconsin and Oklahoma State perfectly encapsulates college football's post-transfer portal world.

Both the Badgers and the Cowboys will be deploying backup quarterbacks after starters Graham Mertz and Spencer Sanders entered the portal earlier this month.

Not surprisingly, the total for this bowl game has dropped like a rock. But even at the new number, is it low enough in a matchup lacking most of its offensive firepower?

I break it all down and bring you my best bet for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl in our college football picks and predictions for Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma State vs Wisconsin best odds

Oklahoma State vs Wisconsin picks and predictions

This is another bowl game with a lot to unpack. Let’s start with Oklahoma State, as Spencer Sanders entering the transfer portal was one of the more shocking developments of this cycle.

Sanders was the heartbeat of the Pokes’ offense, throwing for 2,642 yards with 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions. The QB also added another 393 yards and eight scores on the ground over the 10 games he suited up for in 2022. 

The drop-off between Sanders and backups Gunner Gundy and Garret Rangel is a sizeable one. The two combined to complete just 52% of their passes this season, throwing more interceptions (seven) than touchdowns (five). 

And it’s not like Oklahoma State was killing it on offense with Sanders anyways. The Cowboys ranked 99th in the nation when it came to yards per play when facing FBS opponents this season. 

Luckily for Oklahoma State, Mike Gundy and his staff aren’t going anywhere and will be coaching in this game.

The same can’t be said for the Wisconsin staff. While well-respected interim head coach and defensive coordinator Jim Leonard will be on the sideline, former Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell has been given the full-time gig in Madison. 

The Badgers’ offense has its own set of problems, starting with long-time QB Graham Mertz entering the transfer portal. While Mertz had his faults, he was still a veteran presence for this offense.

What's even more concerning for Wisconsin in this one is the health of star running back Braelon Allen. Allen rushed for 1,128 yards at 5.4 yards per carry and found the end zone 10 times over 11 games this season. Leonard hasn’t spoken much about his availability to this point, but he hasn’t played since Nov. 19 and is questionable for this one (leg). 

It’s pretty simple here. The Pokes' offense has not looked good when Sanders hasn’t played, and the Badgers' defense will want to give one more solid effort for Leonard.

All the while, the Badgers offense wasn’t much to write home about with Mertz under center, and now he and Allen might not play.

This total has moved a bunch already, but there is still value on the Under at the current number of 43.5.

My best bet: Under 43.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

Oklahoma State vs Wisconsin spread analysis

Wisconsin opened this matchup as 3.5-point chalk, and this line has since dipped slightly to a field goal as of December 20. Despite both teams playing a backup quarterback, this still makes sense considering Sanders was the much more impactful of the two when it comes to the respective offenses.

There is also a considerable gap between the two defenses. Despite not being the greatest unit we’ve seen in Madison over the last few seasons, the Badgers weren't too shabby. In fact, Wisconsin ranked 12th in the nation in opponent yards per play when facing FBS opponents, while Oklahoma State ranks 100th in that same category. 

I’ve talked about this before in some of my other college bowl betting previews, but it can be hard to feel confident backing a team starting a backup quarterback where one team has a rooted coaching staff and the other is made up of an interim group.

However, I would still lean toward laying with the Badgers at the key number of -3. As I've laid out, Sanders accounted for so much of the Cowboys' offense.

Meanwhile, the Wisconsin defense is rock solid and will want to put on a strong performance for Leonard, who is liked and respected by players and fans alike. 

Oklahoma State vs Wisconsin Over/Under analysis

The total for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl hit the board at 48.5, and that was likely with Mertz not playing baked in. And then, with the surprise transfer of Sanders, the number dropped to the current 43.5.

As I said, this number is still too high.

The Cowboys have averaged just 13.6 points per game over the last five games, and Sanders played in three of those. You can also make an argument that this Wisconsin defense will be the toughest Oklahoma State has faced all season.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin ranked 76th in the country in scoring offense at 26.5 points per game, and that is with Mertz and Allen playing most of the season. With a backup QB in the game, you can expect the Badgers to lean even more on the running game, as they are already 22nd in the country in run-play percentage.

Expect the clock to be constantly moving in this one and the game to move rather quickly, helping out the Under even more.

In-play microbetting trends for Wisconsin vs Oklahoma State

The best betting sites for microbetting college football (with their odds powered by Simplebet):

• DraftKings Sportsbook
• bet365 Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook

Here are the next drive results when each team started at the 25-yard line (for all drives available to bet) for both the two-way betting market and the four-way betting market:

Wisconsin

Offensive score Yes: 8/24 (33.3%)
Offensive score No: 16/24 (66.7%)

Punts: 11/24 (45.8%)
TDs: 5/24 (20.8%)
FG attempts: 5/24 (20.8%)
TOs: 3/24 (12.5%)

Oklahoma State

Offensive score Yes: 12/34 (35.3%)
Offensive score No: 22/34 (64.7%)

Punts: 11/34 (32.4%)
TDs: 8/34 (23.5%)
FG attempts: 4/34 (11.8%)
TOs: 11/34 (32.4%)

Oklahoma State had five drives that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.

Oklahoma State vs Wisconsin betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in Wisconsin's last five non-conference games and 5-0 in Oklahoma State's last five overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oklahoma State vs. Wisconsin.

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