The No. 5 Oregon Ducks are significant favorites (-20.5) over the No. 12 seed James Madison Dukes in the First Round of the College Football Playoff.
While JMU’s run is a heartwarming story, the good times likely come to an end in Eugene.
See why I’m backing the Ducks with my early James Madison vs. Oregon predictions, leans, and college football picks on Saturday, December 20.
James Madison vs Oregon predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early James Madison vs Oregon spread pick: Oregon -20.5
Let’s start by acknowledging that it’s remarkable the James Madison Dukes made the College Football Playoff in just their fourth season at the FBS level. The Dukes are 12-1, won the Sun Belt title, and led the nation in success rate on defense.
Now that I’ve paid my respects, let’s get real.
JMU only made the playoffs due to the quirky autobid format, combined with Duke pulling off an upset in the ACC Championship game. JMU has compiled an impressive record, but it hasn’t beaten anyone much of note, facing the nation’s 123rd-ranked strength of schedule.
Coach Bob Chesney has already agreed to become UCLA's next head coach. While he’s staying with JMU through the playoffs, it’s not an ideal situation, as he’s wearing two hats and trying to operate two jobs at the same time.
The Oregon Ducks' tough defense (seventh in EPA per play) should show out against a one-dimensional JMU offense (121st in pass rate). Let’s not forget JMU averaged 3.4 yards per play in its lone difficult matchup of the year (Louisville). That’s not playoff material.
Early James Madison vs Oregon total pick: Under 50.5
In a game between two of the nation’s top rushing teams, the clock should be moving throughout, while both defenses present difficult challenges.
JMU likes to slow things down (111th in tempo) and rely on the ground game (14th in rush rate). Oregon’s Mint defense scheme is sometimes content to allow successful, but minor, rushing attempts as a tradeoff for devoting extra bodies to stifle the passing attack.
It wouldn’t be a bit surprising if JMU has some successful rushing plays with quarterback Alonza Barnett III (544 rushing yards, 14 TDs) and running back Wayne Knight (1,263 rushing yards, nine TDs) — enough at least to keep the clock ticking.
It would be shocking, however, if they light up the scoreboard.
On the flip side, JMU’s defense didn’t lead the country in success rate by accident. The Dukes are potent up front (fourth in line yards, sixth in stuff rate), and that’s generally a necessary ingredient for competing with Power Four rosters.
Oregon’s offense has put up crooked numbers against bad defenses but has been held in check by better ones. JMU falls somewhere in the middle when adjusting for competition.
James Madison vs Oregon odds
- James Madison vs. Oregon spread: Oregon -20.5
- James Madison vs. Oregon moneyline: James Madison +920, Oregon -1800
- James Madison vs. Oregon Over/Under: 50.5
How to watch James Madison vs Oregon
- James Madison vs. Oregon matchup
- Date: Saturday, December 20, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: Eugene, OR
- Venue: Autzen Stadium
- TV: TNT
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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