The Rocky Mountain Showdown returns in Week 3 as the Colorado Buffaloes head to Fort Collins to face the Colorado State Rams.
This matchup was one of the most entertaining games of the 2023 season when the Buffs narrowly survived with a 43-35 overtime victory.
My early Colorado vs. Colorado State predictions are expecting another nail-biter. Read why in my college football picks ahead!
Colorado vs Colorado State predictions
Early spread lean
Colorado State +7.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Colorado Buffaloes have won just two games by eight or more points since Coach Prime took the reins.
One of those was a turnover-driven and fluky 36-14 win over Nebraska that has since proven unrepeatable, and the other was a 43-35 win over the Colorado State Rams in overtime.
Considering the current betting line is Colorado -7.5, I must go the other way and take the home underdog in a rivalry.
Colorado State’s primary concern regards the health of Tory Horton, one of the country’s most productive receivers. He returned a punt 78 yards to the house a week ago but headed to the medical tent in the third quarter without return. The NFL prospect hauled in 16 receptions for 133 yards and a touchdown in last year’s matchup and is the focal point of the offense, so his health is paramount.
One encouraging sign is the Rams have been able to run the ball much better than in the recent past. Jay Norvell has praised his reworked offensive line repeatedly in the early goings, and I can see why — running back Justin Marshal ran for 106 yards against a tough Texas team in Week 1, and they ran for 224 yards and three scores as a team against Northern Colorado.
Coach Prime’s squad still hasn’t proven it can do much of anything well other than let Shedeur Sanders air the ball to Travis Hunter. They’re averaging just 37.5 rushing yards per game on 1.7 yards per carry, and the defense has been below average by allowing 5.8 yards per play.
We know this game will mean a lot to Norvell, and I’ll bet on his team hanging close. Coach Prime will need to prove to me first that he’s ready to cover spreads against any opponent, let alone a fired-up rival.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 59.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This may be a contrarian take, but my initial lean is toward the Under against Colorado State.
Colorado came well short of last week’s total (55) in an uninspiring 28-10 loss to the Cornhuskers. Nebraska was content to sit on the ball because it wasn’t scared of what was coming back at it and didn’t want a true freshman QB to be put into risky situations.
The Rams haven’t proven to possess an offense capable of making opposing defenses pay, averaging just 309 total yards of offense on 5.1 yards per play.
Norvell has had some deadly offenses in his time as a HC but we haven’t seen the same success traverse from Nevada to Colorado State.
The Rams averaged 13.2 ppg in his first year in Fort Collins in 2022, 26.1 ppg a year ago, and are at 19.0 ppg through two games this season. The rushing attack looks better than the passing attack early in the year, which is a surprise.
On the flip side, Sanders and Hunter should lead the way for a good passing day for the Buffs. Can we rely on much else outside of that? Sean Lewis isn’t around as offensive coordinator anymore, and the Buffs have averaged just 20.3 ppg since he was stripped of his play-calling duties following the UCLA loss on October 28 of last year.
Colorado State’s defensive weakness is along the front seven, where it loses Mohamed Kamara (17 TFL, 13 sacks) and has a thin rotation, but Colorado isn't positioned to best exploit that weakness.
The Rams are stronger in the secondary, returning three starters led by Jack Howell and Henry Blackburn to a unit that could be beaten on a down-to-down basis (101st in passing success rate) but was great at limiting big plays (ninth in explosiveness). The latter will be crucial in a matchup against Shedeur.
Colorado vs Colorado State live odds
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