Wednesday night delivers more MACtion as the Central Michigan Chippewas welcome the Buffalo Bulls for a key conference matchup.
The Bulls enter tied for second in the MAC and could pull even with Western Michigan with a win. Meanwhile, the Chippewas—just one game back and riding a three-game home winning streak—know a victory is essential to keep their postseason hopes alive.
Find out why I’m backing the home team in my Buffalo vs. Central Michigan predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, November 12.
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Buffalo vs Central Michigan prediction
Buffalo vs Central Michigan best bet: Central Michigan moneyline (-120)
It’s easy to look at the Buffalo Bulls and their defensive metrics and overlook the simple, important fact that they haven't beaten anyone good.
Buffalo narrowly defeated UMass, perhaps the worst team in college football, by scoring in the final minute to get the victory. The Bulls needed overtime to defeat a 3-7 Eastern Michigan team that ran for 227 yards on 54 attempts.
The Central Michigan Chippewas beat UMass by 25 points and that same EMU team by 11 in a rivalry game. Their offense might not be great, but they can wear down the Buffalo defense the same way EMU did.
Head coach Matt Drinkall brought many of his hard-nosed rushing concepts to Mount Pleasant from Army. CMU ranks 132nd in run rate above average, and while it ranks 120th in success rate and 98th in EPA/rush, it has succeeded.
And while Buffalo handles the inside run well, the Bulls have been hurt by running quarterbacks. Troy's Tucker Kilcrease ran 16 times for 50 yards in a win over the Bulls, while UConn quarterback Joe Fagnano picked up 64 yards on just six carries.
CMU ranks fourth in designed QB run rate, and Buffalo ranks dead last in EPA on QB designed runs. And when the Chips do throw, they rank 36th in EPA/pass and are prone to hitting big plays.
Buffalo has a problem with turnovers, an area where the Chips thrive. The Bulls also rank near the bottom nationally in almost every offensive metric, relying on their defense to get the job done.
CMU will grind out enough drives and keep Buffalo’s defense on the field long enough to get an important win at home. The Chips are 5-1 ATS in their last six, but with a spread this close, I’ll take the moneyline.
Buffalo vs Central Michigan same-game parlay
Nahree Biggins is CMU’s top running back, averaging 5.3 yards per carry with 81 runs on the season. He’s coming off a rough outing against Western Michigan, but should find success against a Buffalo defense ranked 107th in line yards allowed per run. I like him to top 42 yards for the third time in four games.
Buffalo will force Central Michigan to put together long drives, and the Bulls will do well to limit points.
The Bulls will also struggle to find big plays against a Chips defense that is among the best in college football at limiting explosive passes. I expect the first quarter to be fairly cagey, as they typically have been in Central Michigan’s games, and the 1Q Under is 6-0 in Buffalo’s last six on the road.
Buffalo vs Central Michigan SGP
- Central Michigan moneyline
- Nahree Biggins Over 41.5 rushing yards
- First quarter Under 9.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Buffed out
Neither offense tends to put up big numbers, and Central Michigan will want to keep the ball on the ground. The Under is 4-2 in Buffalo’s last four, including last week when the total sat at just 43.5 points. Ta’Quan Roberson has struggled to take care of the ball, and the Bulls quarterback will have another difficult outing here, as Central Michigan ranks 26th in interception rate and 42nd in completion rate.
Buffalo vs Central Michigan SGP
- Central Michigan moneyline
- Nahree Biggins Over 41.5 rushing yards
- First quarter Under 9.5
- Under 44.5
- Ta'Quan Roberson Under 209.5 passing yards
Buffalo vs Central Michigan game predictions
Buffalo vs Central Michigan moneyline prediction
Buffalo's offense won't bring enough spark to topple Central Michigan.
Buffalo vs Central Michigan spread prediction
The spread has dropped down to Central Michigan -1.5, and I’d lean toward the Chips covering. Buffalo has covered just once in its last seven games, pushing once and losing the other five, while the Chips are 5-1 ATS in their last six.
Buffalo vs Central Michigan Over/Under prediction
I’m on the Under here. Buffalo’s offense isn’t good, and Central Michigan will want to grind out possessions and the clock along with it.
Buffalo vs Central Michigan odds
- Spread: Buffalo +1.5 (-110) | Central Michigan -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Buffalo +102 | Central Michigan -120
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-105) | Under 44.5 (-115)
Buffalo vs Central Michigan trend to know
Buffalo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Buffalo vs Central Michigan.
How to watch Buffalo vs Central Michigan
| Location | Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant, MI |
| Date | Wednesday, November 12, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBSSN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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