College Football Player Props and Best Bets for Week 10: Martinez Runs Amok Against Colorado

Prop bet #1: Don't buck Henderson

The Ohio State Buckeyes haven’t been able to get their rushing attack up to full speed this season. On the year, they rank just 74th in EPA per rush and 88th in rushing success rate while managing a measly 3.9 yards per rush. Those aren’t great numbers for any team, but they’re especially concerning for an 8-0 team that has National Championship aspirations. 

The good news is that they showed signs of life last week against Wisconsin, rushing for 181 yards and a score. That level of production naturally coincided with the return of running back TreVeyon Henderson to the lineup. In his first game back in over a month due to injury, the speedster handled 24 carries for 162 yards and a touchdown while adding four receptions for 45 yards. 

Henderson’s had an odd career. He broke out for 1,560 scrimmage yards and 19 touchdowns as a true freshman in 2021 but then regressed last season, playing just eight games and managing 599 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. It’s common knowledge at this point that he was dealing with injuries for the majority of last season and was never truly at 100%, so I’d take that dip in production with a grain of salt. 

He’s one of the most productive players in the country when he’s healthy and is likely to be taken very high in the NFL Draft when he decides to declare. It’s safe to say that the Rutgers Scarlet Knights won’t have the athletes defensively to compare with Henderson. 

I expect Ohio State’s running game to continue improving with Henderson back toting the rock. His rushing yardage prop is set at just 82.5 for Saturday, and that’s a bar he’s cleared in each of his last three games while averaging 118 rushing yards per game. 

Rutgers is pretty stingy defensively, surrendering just 15.8 ppg. That being said, I’m not scared of its rushing defense, which ranks 47th in EPA per rush and 118th in rushing success rate. It’s had two difficult matchups (Michigan and Wisconsin), both of whom ran for over 200 yards. 

Give me Henderson to eclipse 82.5 rushing yards as the seemingly forgotten star of the college football world makes his mark yet again. 

TreVeyon Henderson prop: Over 82.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Jordan just doesn't stop

Jeff Brohm has the Louisville Cardinals at 7-1 and heading into Week 10 brimming with confidence after a 23-0 shutout of Duke in Week 9. They’ll face off with the Virginia Tech Hokies, a team that has played much better under Brent Pry in recent weeks but still has shown major vulnerabilities defending the run at points this season. 

The Hokies check into this matchup 87th in EPA per rush and 121st in rushing explosiveness defensively — concerning numbers against a Cardinals offense that thrives off creating big plays (17th in rushing explosiveness). 

A large number of those explosive rushes comes from speedster running back Jawhar Jordan, who began last season fifth on the depth chart only to emerge as one of the sports’ most productive backs and the clear leader of the Louisville backfield a year later. He’s accumulated 824 rushing yards in eight games this season, good for an average of 103 yards per game. His rushing yardage prop is set at 98.5 on Saturday, which means he’d need an average game to cash the Over. 

Given the Hokies’ liabilities in defending the rush, there’s reason to expect an above-average game from Jordan, who is fresh off a strong performance against Duke where he had 21 carries for 163 yards and two touchdowns. 

He’s also playing at home in what should be a raucous environment. He’s been great in home games this season, rushing for no less than 134 yards and a touchdown in all four of the Cardinals’ games at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. While the Hokies have shown some sternness defending the rush at home against bad teams, they’ve been burnt to a crisp on the road, allowing an average of 250.7 rushing yards in away games. 

Jawhar Jordan prop: Over 82.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Stampede in Boulder

I expect a stampede in Boulder where the Oregon State Beavers should run all over this Colorado Buffaloes defense. 

Colorado’s defense has a few notable names but overall is a well below-average defensive lineup. That might be too kind — this defense is plain bad. The Buffaloes are allowing 34.9 PPG, 475.4 total yards per game, and 6.3 yards per play. They have yet to allow fewer than 5.0 yards per play in any game this season and have allowed more than 520 total yards in more games (3) than they’ve held a team to under 400 total yards (2). 

The latest beneficiary of facing this pillow-soft defense is Oregon State, a team averaging 36.4 PPG, 439.6 total yards per game, and 6.9 yards per play. The Beavers are a temple built to please the efficiency gods, ranking ninth in EPA per play and 10th in success rate. 

They have one of the best offensive lines in the country and should be able to consistently push around this Colorado front, which will pave massive running lanes for Damien Martinez and the rest of the ball carriers. The Beavers rank fifth nationally in rushing success rate and hold a massive advantage over a Buffaloes defense checking in at 109th in EPA per rush and 99th in rushing explosiveness. 

Martinez has a rushing yardage prop of 91.5 for Saturday’s meeting in Boulder. Since taking over as lead back halfway through his true freshman campaign in 2022, Martinez is averaging 95.8 rushing yards per game. We only need an average Martinez game for the Over to come through and there’s way more reason to expect a “boom” performance than a “bust” one in Week 10, so I’ll be taking his Over. 

Damien Martinez prop: Over 91.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)