UConn vs Providence Odds, Picks and Predictions: Friars Cover Eighth Straight Contest

The Connecticut Huskies will try to bounce back from their first loss of the season when they visit the Providence Friars on Wednesday night.

Both of these Big East rivals are off to a strong start this season. UConn (14-1) was undefeated before losing to the Xavier Musketeers on Saturday, while Providence (12-3) is 4-0 in conference play so far this year.

UConn comes in as a road favorite but faces a Friars team that is riding a seven-game winning streak into Wednesday’s game. I break down tonight’s matchup in our college basketball picks and predictions for Connecticut vs. Providence below.

UConn vs Providence best odds

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UConn vs Providence picks and predictions

The Connecticut Huskies have been one of the most impressive and surprising teams of the early college basketball season. After starting the season unranked, UConn rolled off 14 straight wins to move up to No. 2 in both major polls. Even after suffering that loss to Xavier, the Huskies remain at No. 4 in the AP poll and look like a potential No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

UConn has been winning in a variety of ways. The Huskies score 82.3 points per game, led by junior forward Adama Sanogo (17.8 ppg). They’ve also been one of the better defensive teams in the nation, holding opponents to just 60.7 points a night and 26.8% shooting behind the arc. 

But Connecticut will face a tough road test against Providence. The Friers are playing with confidence right now, with their last four wins all coming against Big East competition. In the past week, they’ve beaten Butler by 20 and DePaul by 15, with both of those results coming on the road.

Providence boasts similar firepower to UConn, averaging 80.2 points per night. The difference between these two teams comes on the defensive end, where the Friers aren’t locking teams down quite as effectively as the Huskies. Providence ranks 149th in the nation in points allowed, with opponents scoring 67.7 points per game.

The biggest question I have about Providence is how they’ll respond to playing a team of UConn’s caliber. The Friars have only played two Top-25 teams this season, losing by 10 to the Miami Hurricanes and by 13 to the TCU Horned Frogs. 

Both of those losses came on the road, however, and they preceded the current impressive winning streak. Providence is a perfect 8-0 at home this season, and UConn has yet to build up much road experience: only three of their first 15 games have been in true away games. 

This is a difficult matchup for both teams. Providence is a bit underrated at the moment, sitting just outside of the Top 25 in both polls, which has kept the Friars under the radar. But their recent wins have been impressive, and I think they’ll give UConn a fight on Wednesday night. 

This one should come down to the final possessions, and it’s possible that Providence could even hand Connecticut its second straight loss. For bettors, though, the smarter play will be to take the Friars and the points on their home court.

My best bet: Providence +5 (-110 at DraftKings)

UConn vs Providence spread analysis

UConn opened tonight’s game as a 5.5-point favorite at most books. That number has come down a bit, with Providence +5 becoming the closest thing to a consensus line as of noon on Wednesday. Be aware that you can also find Connecticut -4.5 or Providence +5.5 at some sites, provided you’re willing to pay some added juice to get those numbers.

Both teams have been impressive against the spread this year. UConn has come out of the gate exceeding expectations, and that has led to a blistering 11-3-1 ATS mark on the season. Meanwhile, Providence is 9-6 ATS but has beaten the number in seven straight games heading into Wednesday’s contest.

One of the reasons I like the Friars with the points is that UConn hasn’t exactly been blowing out opponents now that they’ve gotten into Big East play. The Huskies beat Villanova by just eight at home last week, and also scored an 11-point victory at home against Georgetown earlier last month. 

Neither of those teams is as good — or playing nearly as well — as Providence, and UConn now has to go on the road to face a scorching-hot team. While the Huskies may well walk out with a win, they’ll have to work for this one. My pick is Providence and the points.

UConn vs Providence Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under on tonight’s matchup started at 142. That number has held steady, with various sites now offering totals anywhere from 141.5 to 142.5 on their main lines. 

This is a tricky number to handicap, as both teams can score, but can have done a fairly good job of holding down their opponents. Both teams play at an average pace and have shown a willingness to adjust to their opponents, winning in both shootouts and low-scoring contests. 

Looking at their recent Big East results, I think this number might be a little too low, however. Other than in their game against Butler — a team that struggles to score and generally tries to slow games down — the Huskies have been playing at numbers of 140 or higher, and went over 155 against both Georgetown and Xavier.

The Friars have been playing to lower totals, but it’s worth noting that they beat the Marquette Golden Eagles 103-98 on December 20. That game went into double overtime, but even in regulation, the teams combined for 156 points, showing that the Friars aren’t afraid of a shootout.

Providence can stay in this game, but I think they’ll have to do so by matching UConn’s offensive output. I expect this game to be played in the 70s, with a likely total near 150 points. I’m taking the Over here.

UConn vs Providence betting trend to know

Providence is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games. Find more College basketball betting trends for UConn vs. Providence.

UConn vs Providence game info

UConn vs Providence key injuries

UConn: Samson Johnson F (Out).
Providence: Quante Berry G (Out).

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