Texas Tech vs Oklahoma Odds, Picks and Predictions: Technical Difficulties for Sooners

Texas Tech will hope to remain atop the Big 12 standings when the Red Raiders travel to Norman for a ranked matchup with the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday. Our college basketball odds have the home team favored by 3.5 points.

The Red Raiders have lost just once in their last 11 games, a road defeat at highly-touted Houston. At 4-1 they have the best record in the conference, and enjoyed a comeback win over BYU last Saturday. They’ve had a week off to prepare for the Sooners, and they’ll look to Pop Isaacs to have another big game.

After a strong start to the season, conference play has been a punch to the gut for the Sooners. They’re just 3-3 in the Big 12, having lost three of their last five games. Leading scorer Javian McCollum was held to just nine points in their 15-pt defeat to Texas, and he’s posted two of his worst shooting performances of the season in their last two games. 

Our college basketball picks and predictions for Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma on January 27 break down the matchup and explains why it makes sense to go with the hotter team. 

Texas Tech vs Oklahoma best odds

Texas Tech vs Oklahoma picks and predictions

Oklahoma has lost four games this season, and those four games happen to be the only four in which it graded under a point per possession. That includes its 15-pt loss to Texas on Tuesday.

In that game, the Sooners averaged just 0.91 points per trip as they had their lowest effective FG% of the season. In fact, their three worst eFG% performances on the season have come in their last four games. They lost two of those contests, and had Cincinnati managed to make free throws it would likely be three defeats in four. 

Oklahoma’s defense this season has been strong, but we’re seeing the same thing of late. The Sooners have had their three worst point-per-possession performances in their last five games, as well as two of their three worst adjusted defensive efficiency grades of the season.  

Texas Tech comes into this game playing extremely well, both home and away. The Red Raiders handed those same Longhorns an 11-pt defeat on the road just a few weeks ago, and their only defeat since November came at Houston.

The Red Raiders are putting up outstanding numbers on offense, even when they aren’t able to crash the offensive glass. More importantly, they can win in a variety of ways. 

Sure, they can beat teams when they’re bombing away from downtown, having made double-digit 3-pt in eight games this season including the last two. But they’ve won games where they’ve shot just 5-of-25 as they did against Kansas State.

Texas Tech doesn’t turn the ball over much, and Pop Isaacs showed against BYU he can take a game over. His 32-pt performance was a career high, with 25 points coming after halftime. It was his fifth 20-pt game in their last seven outings.

The Sooners have struggled in their defeats to handle opposing ball-dominant guards. Max Abmas and Kevin McCullar both went for more than 20 points in their teams’ wins over Oklahoma.

The Sooners haven’t been forcing teams to cough up the ball of late. Four of their last six opponents walked away with a turnover rate under 13% for the game. Against Kansas, they managed to cause only two turnovers in the entire game.

If Oklahoma can’t force turnovers to slow down the Texas Tech offense, it’s difficult to think it’ll hold the Red Raiders to a low enough score to pull away. The Red Raiders simply have too much firepower on the outside to think they’ll not make shots. 

I think we’re seeing a trend in conference play as teams are bringing the Sooners’ defensive numbers back down to Earth, and I think it’s telling that their four defeats have been to the four best teams they’ve played this season — and they lost all four games by nine or more points. 

That’s why I’m backing Texas Tech to cover the spread on Saturday for my best bet. I’m tempted to take the Red Raiders to win outright, but this is the safer play and I’m not sure I trust their defense enough to get big stops down the stretch.

You can get Texas Tech +3.5 at -110 across the board, but we’re going to play it at DraftKings, as we’re staying there for our same-game parlay. Take the well-rested Red Raiders to do enough to keep this close and have a chance to win at the end.

My best bet: Texas Tech +3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Texas Tech vs Oklahoma same-game parlay

Texas Tech +3.5

Oklahoma team total Under 71.5 points

Pop Isaacs Over 2.5 3-pt made

+300 at DraftKings

Oklahoma has averaged just 69 points per contest in conference play, and haven’t managed to score more than 71 in four defeats this season. Texas Tech’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 78th, and the Red Raiders allow the sixth-lowest FT rate in college basketball. I’ll back them to hold Oklahoma’s offense below its team total of 71.5 points.

Isaacs has a usage rate of nearly 30% on the season, and while he’s making just 33.1% of his outside shots, he’s never seen an attempt he wouldn’t take. He’s made three or more 3-pointers in six of his last seven games, and is 9-of-19 in his last two. If they’re going to cover and possibly win, he’ll need to be involved, and I expect at least a trio of treys. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Texas Tech vs Oklahoma spread and Over/Under analysis

Our best bet of Texas Tech +3.5 is a bit lower than what some got it at, with the line opening with a 4.5-pt spread. It was quickly bet down, and is sitting at 3.5 across the board. 

The Red Raiders haven’t just been winning these past two months, they’ve been covering. They’re 5-2 ATS in their last seven games, including a win over Texas in which they were 6.5-pt dogs. In conference play, the Red Raiders are 3-2 ATS. 

It’s been the exact opposite for the Sooners. They’ve gone 3-6 ATS over their last nine games, and lost outright to Texas as -4.5 favorites. They’re also just 3-3 ATS in conference play. Making matters worse, Oklahoma has lost seven of the last 10 meetings against the Red Raiders, including a home loss last season by 11 points. 

The movement on the total has been a bit of a seesaw. It opened with variance between 141.5 and 139.5, depending on the book, and it has fluctuated between the two for the past 18 hours. Make sure to shop around, because it’s still available at different numbers as of mid-day Saturday.

Texas Tech has seen the Over hit in four of its last five games, all in conference play. The Over is also 7-3 in the last 10. The Red Raiders have scored at least 76 points in eight of their last 10 games. 

For the Sooners, the Under has been the way to go. It’s 4-2 in their six conference games, including three straight, and 7-3 in their last 10 overall. Oklahoma has given up 75 or more points to three of its last five conference foes. 

Texas Tech vs Oklahoma betting trend to know

The Over is 9-3 in Texas Tech’s last 12 road games (+6.80 units / 52% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma.

Texas Tech vs Oklahoma game info

Texas Tech vs Oklahoma key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic