St. John's vs Butler Odds, Picks and Predictions: Storm Slow Rolling In

The Big East Tournament begins on Wednesday afternoon as the Butler Bulldogs take on the St. John’s Red Storm in an opening-round matchup.

St. John’s (17-14) comes in as the No. 8 seed in the Big East, while Butler (14-17) is the No. 9 seed in the tournament. Both teams are riding two-game losing streaks heading into Wednesday.

While these teams have both struggled to find consistent success this season, there’s still a clear pattern for bettors to exploit in this matchup. We’ll break down what to expect in our college basketball picks and predictions for Butler vs. St. John’s on March 8.

St. John's vs Butler best odds

St. John's vs Butler picks and predictions

While St. John’s hasn’t exactly set the world on fire this year, it has definitely established an identity. The Red Storm are among the fastest-paced teams in the country this year, running up and down the floor and often playing games in the 90s. Impressively, they’ve managed to stay in games even with some of the top teams in the country, losing only 96-94 in their regular season finale on the road against the Marquette Golden Eagles.

Butler takes the opposite approach. The Bulldogs have consistently played low-scoring games, attempting to win slogs where both teams score under 70 points. This approach has led to occasional success, such as in a 69-67 home win over the Xavier Musketeers, but hasn’t resulted in a successful season. Butler has lost nine of its last 12 games, all while sticking to a rigid approach that sees it scoring just 65.3 points per game, among the lowest totals in the nation.

This contrast in styles will play out on Wednesday, with St. John’s trying to push the pace while Butler attempts to turn this game into a halfcourt battle. And in the first two meetings between these teams, it has been the Bulldogs who have succeeded in dictating the pace.

Back on January 10, St. John’s had little trouble in beating Butler 77-61. The Bulldogs returned the favor at home on February 7, edging the Red Storm 68-66 at home. 

While the results were very different, the totals are remarkably consistent. And despite both of those games coming in under 140 points, the oddsmakers have set today’s total at 144.5. 

That seems pretty generous when we consider just how effectively Butler can slow down the pace of its games. The Bulldogs have hit the Under in nine of their last 10 contests, and in nine of those games, they’ve played to a total of under 140 points. Even the one time they hit the Over — in their most recent game against Xavier — the total only came in at 143 points.

Obviously, St. John’s plays at a higher pace and to bigger totals. But the Red Storm can be slowed down, and not just by Butler. The Providence Friars also held the number down to a reasonable 131 when St. John’s beat them 73-68 last month. Overall, the Red Storm have hit the Under in four of their last seven games.

Yes, there’s always the danger that St. John’s takes over the pace of play and pushes the total higher. But all indications are that Butler can consistently and reliably keep the score down, no matter who they’re playing. With a total that’s well above what these teams have played to in either of their first two meetings, I’m very confident in betting the Under.

My best bet: Under 144 (-105 at DraftKings)

St. John's vs Butler spread analysis

The spread on today’s game opened with St. John’s as a 5.5-point favorite. The line quickly moved in Butler’s favor, and most sites now have St. John’s -6.5 points as their main line.

The Red Storm are 13-18 against the spread this season, while Butler has put up a 14-15-2 record ATS on the year.

Despite the similar results in the Big East, there’s little doubt that St. John’s has been the better team this year. The Red Storm have been able to score wins over some of the best teams in the conference, including the Connecticut Huskies and the Providence Friars. While St. John’s hasn’t been consistent, its ability to score points has put opponents under pressure and allowed the team to find some success.

With the exception of the one home win over Xavier, Butler lacks those sort of marquee wins. In addition, the Bulldogs have struggled down the stretch, losing four of their last five, even while maintaining their tepid pace. Butler doesn’t look like a team that’s capable of making a run in the Big East Tournament, while St. John’s could at least put a scare into Marquette in the second round.

To make matters worse, Butler might be without senior center Manny Bates on Wednesday. Bates — who is second on the team in scoring with 11.6 points per game — suffered a shoulder injury in Saturday’s season-ending loss to Xavier.

St. John’s is the better team and the healthier squad, and should be able to easily advance to the second round. My pick is to lay the points with the Red Storm.

St. John's vs Butler Over/Under analysis

The total for Wednesday’s game opened at 144.5. There’s been a slight push downwards on that number, with some sites moving to an Over/Under of 144 points flat overnight.

The Bulldogs played to the Over against Xavier on Saturday night, but hit the Under nine consecutive times before that game. As I mentioned earlier, it’s extremely rare for Butler to play to a total of 145 points or more, with the last such game coming against the Villanova Wildcats back on January 13.

Of course, we can’t ignore the fact that St. John’s is one of the highest-scoring teams in the country. The Red Storm play to an average total of 153.3 points, allowing opponents to score 75.7 points per game. However, that number is only superficially bad. When you consider their pace of play and quality of opposition, KenPom.com rates St. John’s as having the 71st-ranked defense in the country. 

That’s not special, but it’s more than enough to deal with a Butler team that not only plays slowly, but also simply has trouble scoring against anyone it plays. The Bulldogs average just 65.3 points per game, and are a poor shooting team both overall (43.8%) and from 3-point range (33%). 

The loss of Bates will hurt the Butler offense even further and push the Bulldogs to play more conservatively. These teams have already easily come under today’s total twice this season. The smart play is to expect them to do it a third time in the Big East Tournament.

St. John's vs Butler betting trend to know

The Under is 16-5-1 in Butler’s last 22 games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for St. John's vs. Butler.

St. John's vs Butler game info

St. John's vs Butler key injuries

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