Purdue vs Penn State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Pickett Picks His Spots in Title Game

The last game of the college basketball season before March Madness begins may lack the bracket drama that would have been ripe earlier in the week, but don’t tell the Penn State Nittany Lions that.

They have almost assuredly played their way into the NCAA tournament this week, but there's only one way to guarantee that tourney berth... and that's by upsetting the Purdue Boilermakers in the Big Ten title game today.

I break down the matchup and more in my college basketball betting picks for Penn State vs. Purdue below.

Purdue vs Penn State best odds

Purdue vs Penn State picks and predictions

When the Penn State Nittany Lions began its week in Chicago on Thursday, it was probably on the outside looking in for the NCAA tournament. KenPom ranked them the No. 51 team in the country as of Thursday morning. That's not precisely tied to NCAA berths, but it's tied well enough to cover the margin of error allowed by how far back Penn State was.

The No. 51 team in the country would need 14 conference-tournament champions ahead of it in order to logically make the NCAA tournament. The way the week has played out, only 10 are ahead of the 51st spot. Any team that far back in the rankings would be left outside the 68-team bracket.

Now, though, Pomeroy views Penn State as the No. 43 team in the country. If six or more conference-tournament champions are ahead of the 43rd spot, then that team should make the tourney. Those same 10 are all ahead of the Nittany Lions, even elevated.

Penn State should be in the NCAA tournament, with room to spare, regardless of this afternoon’s Big Ten championship game. Upsetting Illinois, Northwestern, and Indiana in three days has removed that drama from this afternoon.

There should still be drama. This run has been too much fun to be snuffed out quietly.

The Nittany Lions should have been too worn out to hit enough shots against the Hoosiers on Saturday. Indiana dialed up the pace to 69 possessions — that was the third-fastest game Penn State played in 23 Big Ten contests this season — but still, the Nittany Lions shot 8-for-23 from deep, good for 34.8%.

That was the second time in two days that Penn State won while shooting worse than 36.5% from deep (7-for-20 against Northwestern for 35% in a 67-65 overtime win), the first two such conference wins for the Nittany Lions this season. In the regular season, they went 0-5 in those moments.

Perhaps that is a tournament wrinkle. Perhaps the sample size speaks to luck. But maybe, just maybe, Penn State has become more well-rounded.

Namely, fifth-year senior point guard Jalen Pickett has taken his game up a notch. In Big Ten tournament play, the point guard that prefers to play with his back to the basket has averaged 18.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game, adding in a block in each of the three games for good measure.

He has changed his game lately. In regular-season conference play, Pickett averaged 3.35 3-point attempts per game, connecting on 1.5 per game. In eight of those games, he took four or more shots from deep, highlighted by going 5-for-9 and 4-for-8 in back-to-back games a month ago. In three games this week, he has taken just five 3-point attempts in total, going 2-of-5 in doing so.

Pickett’s dominant semifinal aside — 28 points on 8 of 16 shooting, eight rebounds, and four assists — sportsbooks still have his points props a bit high. He is simply not shooting as much anymore and Penn State is benefiting from it.

Since that two-game stretch in which Pickett took 17 threes, he has shot only 14 in seven games, hitting seven of them. It's not a coincidence the Nittany Lions have gone 5-2 against the spread in that stretch. Pickett has averaged 16 points in those seven games, falling short of 20 points in five of them.

Yet, his points prop is available at 19.5 today. That reflects the majority of his Big Ten season, averaging 20.4 points through the first 16 games of the conference slate. That points prop does not reflect Pickett’s changed game, one in which he is shooting less, backing down into the paint more and distributing from there.

Betting on Pickett to fall short of 20 points is not meant as doubt in him. It is meant as faith in him continuing his altered approach, one which has carried Penn State into the NCAA tournament.

My best bet: Jalen Pickett Under 19.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

Purdue vs Penn State spread analysis

Penn State has been a strong ATS performer of late. Going 8-1 SU in the last month is what got the Nittany Lions into the NCAA tournament, but going 6-2-1 ATS is what has endeared head coach Micah Shrewsberry to gamblers.

Before that, Penn State was 6-7 ATS in conference play and 5-9 SU. To go further into the rating improvement from the last week, the Nittany Lions were No. 55 in KenPom’s rankings a month ago.

Purdue may have never had those straight-up or rankings struggles as it commanded the Big Ten most of the season, but the Boilermakers have trended the wrong way from a gambling perspective, going 2-6 ATS in their last eight, and that includes covering against Ohio State on Saturday while the Buckeyes were without their best player.

Purdue vs Penn State Over/Under analysis

It's the end of a long week. Penn State has played three games in three days. Part of betting Pickett’s points Under is it protects against weary legs leading to deep shots falling short.

These were two of the four slowest teams in the Big Ten this year and no part of Purdue’s approach relies on high-volume anything, aside from high-volume rebounds and ball movement.

A total of 135 or 135.5 has already been knocked down a bit from usual projections, but not so much that should not be expected in a tournament setting.

Purdue vs Penn State betting trend to know

In 23 conference games this year, Pickett has scored fewer than 20 points in 14 of them. Find more college basketball betting trends for Purdue vs. Penn State.

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