Purdue vs North Carolina Picks and Predictions: UNC Depth Steadies Heels

On Saturday, the Purdue Boilermakers and North Carolina Tar Heels clash in a high-profile showdown at the Hall of Fame Tip-Off. This game will be played at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut, and it’s one of only two matchups between two ranked teams on the day. 

Will the Tar Heels find a way to earn their first against-the-spread victory under head coach Hubert Davis? Keep reading our North Carolina vs. Purdue picks and predictions for Saturday, November 20 if you need some action on this one. 

Purdue vs North Carolina odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Matt Painter’s team has gone from a 6 to a 6.5-point favorite on some books, and the action on this game is pretty split at the moment. The total has remained similarly still, as it opened at 153 and is now either 153 or 153.5 on every book. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Purdue vs North Carolina predictions

• Prediction: North Carolina +6.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 153.0 (-110)
• Best bet: North Carolina +6.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 11/20/2021 at 12:50 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Purdue vs North Carolina game info

• Location: Mohegan Sun Arena, Wilkes-Barre Township, PA
• Date: Saturday, November 20, 2021
• Tip-off: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN+

Purdue at North Carolina betting preview

Injuries

Purdue: Trey Kaufman-Renn F (Out), Brian Waddell F (Out)
North Carolina: Puff Johnson G (Questionable)

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Purdue is 0-3-1 against the spread in its last four games against teams with winning records. Find more NCAA betting trends for Purdue vs. North Carolina.

Purdue vs North Carolina picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Legendary head coach Roy Williams is no longer running the show in Chapel Hill, but Davis should be a remarkable successor, and the Tar Heels are off to a 3-0 start this season. Now, North Carolina will look to play up to the expectations of oddsmakers for the first time this season, as the Tar Heels are 0-3 against the spread and should be playing a whole lot better right now. 

North Carolina has a lot of experienced difference makers on this team, with Oklahoma transfer Brady Manek being one of them. Manek, who is an awesome stretch big on offense, is shooting just 26.7 percent from deep thus far. Once he gets it going from deep, the Tar Heels will take their offense to another level — and it’s only a matter of time before he gets comfortable. North Carolina already has guys like Kerwin Walton and R.J. Davis to space the floor. The more room there is for guards to penetrate, the better Caleb Love will be. 

Love was one of the best NBA prospects to return to school this year, and the sophomore is averaging 19.0 points and 4.3 assists per game. He’s extremely big for a lead guard and knows how to get himself to the basket. Purdue’s Jaden Ivey is a remarkable prospect himself, but don’t be surprised if Love holds his own in that matchup. 

Inside the paint, Purdue center Zach Edey is always going to have a size advantage when he’s on the floor. The 7-foor-4 big man is a walking mismatch for the Boilermakers and the sophomore knows how to play, too. Edey Is averaging 18.7 points, 10.3 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game this season. The only problem here is that North Carolina’s Armando Bacot is a tough matchup for him. Bacot doesn’t have anything close to Edey’s height, but he’s an extremely tough player with a great combination of strength, skill and motor. The junior had 24 points, 12 rebounds and six blocks last game and he’s going to do everything in his power to make sure the Tar Heels aren’t dominated on the inside. 

Realistically, Purdue has a great chance at winning this game, but this line just seems a little off. It should be an extremely competitive affair, making the Heels a good play on the spread. They’re also worthy of a small sprinkle on the money line. 

Prediction: North Carolina +6.5 (-110) 

Over/Under analysis

This game features a matchup between some of the best offenses in all of college basketball. This season, Purdue is second in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (all efficiency stats according to KenPom.com) and North Carolina is 17th. The impressive part about the Tar Heels’ ranking is that they are plenty capable of shooting the ball better from behind the three-point line. That’ll eventually come and it should help North Carolina become even better on that end of the floor. 

The Tar Heels are also playing at a fast pace through these first three games, and they’ll surely try to speed up the Boilermakers. It might not work because of how consistent Purdue is in playing its brand of basketball, but it also might not matter. These teams are both loaded with offensive talent and it’s just hard to envision this not being a high-scoring affair. 

The Over is 6-2 in Purdue’s neutral-court games over the last three seasons. It’s also 3-0 in that span when North Carolina is coming off back-to-back games of scoring at least 85 points. 

Prediction: Over 153.0 (-110)

Best bet

The Boilermakers are 2-7 straight-up and 4-5 against the spread when facing teams that hit at least 52 percent of their shots under Painter. That means that the Boilermakers could struggle to deal with this potent Tar Heels offense. 

There’s no denying that Purdue has some intimidating size inside the paint, but Davis’ Tar Heels have the ability to play some of the Boilermakers’ size off the floor. North Carolina has a lot of good perimeter players and these guards can make life tough on Purdue if they’re hitting triples and forcing them to move on defense.  

Pick: North Carolina +6.5 (-110)

Pages related to this topic